well I think she asked sirrian and got that answer, then thought it wise to consult someone who would look at the code so as to avoid a potential huge ordeal lol (I told her immediately I was posting a screenshot here and she would be held accountable if it was BS LOL)
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Just for some New Year’s fun…
EDIT: updated a bit by adding average per run few seconds after originally posting.
Shoot! Another EDIT: all results for level 12 explore, of course.
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Huh, interesting. I feel like I get more Gaard than Yasmine (also at difficulty 12), but I guess I’m wrong about that. Thanks for the data!
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Thanks. I do play PS4, hoping this rule is across consoles.
I just finished…Finally explore 12 thinking it was the only way. 
Well at least I did 12 & now know I could farm 9 if need be. lol
Appreciate the screen shot
Poking this a bit more
Closest thing I ever got to 2.50 per run was 2,497something and immediately 2-token drops pushed it back to 2.48something.
Somehow, still feel that level 12 should give 3 tokens per run or, at least, something a lot closer to 3 than 2.50
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The odds of getting 490 or fewer successes out of 1000 tries are 30% (if the probability of success is 1/2), so the numbers you’re seeing are still very consistent with a 50% chance of 3 rather than 2 tokens. I agree that it’d be nice if the expectation were higher than 2.5, though.
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Yes, numbers look and feel within reason, I’m not arguing that. Just sort of complaining that I would like more stuff.
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OK, let me see if I understand… a D12 boss drops an average of 2.5 tokens, each of which has a 2% chance of being a token of Nysha.
So, on average, you will get 2% of 2.5 tokens of Nysha per mythic boss…
Which is 0.05 tokens per boss, which is 20 bosses per token.
So, at D12, you can expect to fight (approximately) 20 bosses for each Token of Nysha, and will also receive (approximately) 49 other tokens.
Can someone please check my maths and verify this?
Thanks in advance 
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Maths looks good to me.
By the way, this comes out to about 180 bosses per Medal. You’ll need between 3-6 to reach Gold Elite Level on a Mythic.
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So about 800 bosses on average to fully upgrade one mythic troop?
That seems worth it.
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You need 1 + 2 + 3 medals, so it’s actually 1080 boss fights on average.
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People, people, people… you’re assuming the Devs intended us to only upgrade troops with 100% chance. Maybe they want us to play adventurously?
Instead of wasting a Medal of Nysha, or three Medal of Anu, I could try for 2x Medal of Anu and 1 Medal of Aranaea with a 77.7% chance!
Downside: I lose 2 Medal of Anu and a Medal of Aranaea and still have no upgrade
Upside: I save myself a Medal of Nysha and a Medal of Anu no matter what happens, and best case scenario is I get an upgrade out of it
However… how long does it take to get 1 Medal of Nysha vs 3 Medal of Anu? Because 1 Medal of Nysha is 9 Tokens of Nysha, but 3 Medal of Anu is 27 Tokens of Anu. Does Medal of Anu drop 3x more than Nysha?
Just look at what I showed few posts above. It’s roughly the case.
So I think the consensus here is to use whatever extras you have together to maximize odds. Keep in mind that for every Medal of Nysha you assemble, you also assemble about 3 Anu and 9 Aranaea.
Upgrading Mythics is rarely worth it though; besides Defenders and Generators (who each gain roughly 20 effective toughness), that +3 or +4 boost to stats isn’t going to help anyone much.
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For my Glaycion, while I could use 3 Medal of Anu or 1 Medal of Nysha to get it to Gold, the idea of saving Medal of Anu and using 1 Medal of Nysha instead seems illogical when you consider that 3 Medal of Anu can only be used to get a Mythic to Bronze, but not to Silver. In that sense, I should always use 3 of the same rarity.
In fact, one might argue that you should always use Medal of Anu for all of the following:
- Using 3 Medal of Anu to upgrade a Mythic to Bronze
- Using 2 Medal of Anu to upgrade a Legendary to Silver
- Using 3 Medal of Anu to upgrade a Legendary to Gold
- But NOT using 1 Medal of Anu to upgrade a Legendary to Bronze. For that, use 3 Medal of Aranaea.
So whenever you can use 3 Tokens of a lesser Rarity to upgrade, do it, because you’ll be getting those in the same time it takes to get 1 of the higher rarities.
Therefore, upgrading a Mythic to Gold will take 3 Medal of Anu and 5 Medal of Nysha. Upgrading a Legendary to Gold will take 3 Medal of Aranaea and 5 Medal of Anu. Upgrading an Epic to Gold will take 3 Medal of Cedric and 5 Medal of Aranaea, and so forth…
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Godddddd it’s so complicated.
I’ll just keep earning them and one day I’ll have the patience and time to match something up somewhere.
Also this “chance” to equip is bullshit in delves and esp in medals. Like what happened? I dropped it on the way to pin it on? If it’s my medal that I earned,i shouldn’t have a “chance” to stick it on a troop. It’s in my inventory, it’s mine, but maybe ishy got skeered on the way to the ceremony?
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that was totally not what i was referring to, but good to know
Thought it was pretty clear Matrim was referring to the randomization of Elite Levels, which tbh is probably the worst part of the whole feature. If it just cost a static amount of medals, it would be less harsh.
If you go to award the troop a promotion, and you’re bringing the medal, is there a 66% chance you accidentally drop the medal into the nearest sewer grate and have to go get a new one? Why can’t Aquaticus just use her water powers to recover it for you?
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Don’t think of it as dropping the medal. Think of it as the troop refusing the promotion. Like you hear about failed marriage proposals because the proposer didn’t do enough or buy a nice enough ring: “Really? With that? Try again later.”
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