A few weeks back during the Khaziel event I spent all my gems on 30 event chests, hoping for a Gorgotha. No Gorgotha.
Well, bad luck. Most of the forum advice says open 50 chests & that wasn’t an option for me. Sometimes the RNG isn’t kind.
I joined a new guild that earns gems faster (those Gorgotha chests = several months of accrued gems…) and I really want Venoxia, so this week I opened 50 chests. 50! Surely this time I’d get the legendary.
Nope.
Then I decided to open another 10, which pretty much wipes me out gem-wise. No Venoxia.
So, that’s 90 event chests that I’ve opened now. At least 3 months worth of gems. And not one legendary.
I get that bad luck is a thing and bad streaks are a thing, but I humbly submit that a system that allows this particular series of events is not a great system. A resource that takes literally months to accumulate should have better odds of yielding something desirable.
While I’m complaining (Yes, I know I’m complaining, but 90 chests! That is rotten.)… anyhow, I’m very excited for the top players who will have a chance to compete in PVP for arcane stones, but is there any chance that the plebs will also gain some new route to arcanes?
The glory packs are GREAT & the first couple times I stocked up on stones I was so thrilled. But getting 10 or 16 stones a week… week after week… is exhausting.
Because there are 20 odd kingdoms, it’s quite possible that you won’t get another chance at those same arcane stones for, what, maybe 6 months? Which means either you pressure yourself to play WAY more than you want to or give up on getting the troop traited.
For me sometimes the best way to understand chance is to put it next to something that is more common.
The odds of getting a legendary in a single gem/event chest is (from what I’ve read) 2%. My personal experience is higher, but others have opened far more. So the chances for a non-legendary is 98%. The odds of all non-legendary in X chests is (0.98)^X. For 90 chests that is (0.98)^90 = 0.1623 or 16.23%
Roughly the same as rolling a 6 on a single die.
And that is just for a legendary level drop, it might be a celestial traitstone instead. At 80% chance of troop vs 20% chance of stone, the actual chance of a legendary troop isn’t 2% but 1.6%, so 98.4% at a non-legendary troop. And (0.984)^90 is 23.4%, roughly 1 in 4. So imagine tossing two coins, if they both land on tails… you lose and get no legendary troop.
I went 300 event chests before I got 1 of The Great Maw. I have also gotten as many as 4 legends from 50 event chests. Just have to hope for good RNG.
In regard to glory packs, a lot of them have already repeated. This week is the 2nd time blue/green is out. Some colors have repeated as many as 3 times already. There will also be alternative means of collecting them in the future such as the PvP ladder in 2.0.
I just bought 150 event keys and didn’t get the legendary. I usually have better luck than that. I wasn’t really going for venox though as I already have her at mythic, but thought I’d let you know it’s not just you!
I actually get this, and I understand that something like a 2% chance doesn’t mean “You are guaranteed 2 out of 100 to be…”, that something like Tacet’s 300 chests to get a single lucky roll is within the range of normal & expected outcomes with a low and truly random drop rate. (As is the much luckier 3 in 50 result.)
That’s why I didn’t say, “I want to be luckier” or “RNG sucks”. I said “I think a system that has an extremely precious resource that you save for months before spending it ought to have a better chance of yielding a desirable result.” (Admittedly, it took me months the first time; the second time maybe 3 weeks?)
I think that true randomness is probably not a good idea here. That’s just my grumpy suggestion.
Also (again to Tacet): Yes, I watched the 2.0 video about the PVP rewards. But, as has been pointed out in other threads, those arcane rewards are going to go to top players. I am happy for the top players! That seems like a great way to keep top players competing for something they value.
But since I am not going to be one of those top players, there’s just no point in thinking/worrying about/wanting to win those stones. Far better to say, “Hey, these PVP rewards are great for that niche player group; anything else in the works? That would also be great.”
As a sidenote:
Sirran sent me some keys. I’m going to open them tomorrow because I’m paranoid and engage in magical thinking, but thank you, Sirrian!
Also: the Naga Queen does not have breasts! Thank you, art person!
IME the legendary troop rate is like 1% or maybe 0.5, several times I got nothing from 100 event chests. Generally you don’t want to waste your gems there unless want 50+ copies of the offered blue thing.
RNG is sometimes amazingly streaky. I’ve gone with far over 100 gem keys without getting a Legendary. Then I got four of them in a batch of 50. The second streak made me far more happy than the first one.
There’s a pretty popular CCG that has a mechanism to lessen the impact bad luck a bit, a Pity Timer. If you don’t get any Legendaries, your 40th pack is guaranteed to contain one. Same applies to Epics, just every 10th pack. Maybe something similar would be a welcome addition to Gems of War for gem/event keys? Tweak the numbers a bit, a timeout of 50 feels more appropriate, ensures that you get at least one Legendary when using the 50 keys option. Introducing separate Pity Timers for each type of key is probably also a good idea, seeing that they don’t cost the same.
