Come on devs, show some respect for your players please.
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Devs could not care less about our opinions. This could quite easily have been fixed months ago but all they care about is extracting as much money as they can from us
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8.1 patch notes:
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I honestly really appreciate this MUCH needed change. It’s the only way I could see the devs actually implementing it. (They do love their rotations, don’t they.)
One ask for the future though, it’s increased communication. Knowing 1 week before the implementation isn’t enough, especially after complete radio silence for the past 2.5 months. (and the last update being “no eta”).
A simple post from a dev or community manager 1 month ago saying “a fix is in the works for the next update” would’ve saved me, and likely others, a ton of dragonite that could’ve been used on this new “increased cost” recipe or for the weapons or even Stella. I know personally I could’ve saved 1,650 wasted dragonite with just 1 month’s notice.
Now I have to hope to get enough dragonite to afford the mystery cost new recipe before eklipsos rotates around, since I just crafted my 36th dragon yesterday.
Again, it’s a fine fix. It just took too long and the communication was missing.
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Thanks devs for enabling the targeting of specific dragons. Any chance of a House of the Dragon crossover for the next set? A devouring dragon would be niiice.
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I’m on Switch so I won’t be able to take advantage of the new recipes for a while (and why/whether it should require a client update instead of just a serverside asset update is an open question, though it’s probably fair if they just want to bundle the two together for consistency).
I’m currently saving up 5500 Dragonite before I attempt getting the last Cosmic Dragon. (Same strategy I used with getting the last Gem Dragon.) I wouldn’t be surprised if the recipe costs ~3,000 (equivalent to the expected value for getting said dragon randomly), but it’s markedly going to be an improvement.
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Finally got the targetable dragons!
2000 dragoite is a good price too, nice one devs!
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With how rare draconite is unless you buy things like campaign passes 2000 is quite high. It should have been just double the amount of a normal egg. So regular 1000 and cosmic 1100. Still a grind but alot more fair towards the more casual players. Especially since they’ve already mentioned that there will probably be more dragon eggs in the future.
If you’re targeting one specific dragon out of a set of six, and you assume that each “draw” of a dragon egg is independent of the other draws and therefore has a one-in-six chance of giving you a particular dragon?
On average, it takes four draws to get that one specific dragon – the odds are reasonably close to 50% to get that dragon at least once. That is, 0.8333…^4 = 0.482253, the 0.83333 representing the odds that you don’t get the particular dragon in question on any one draw, and the 0.482253 representing the odds that you don’t get the particular dragon after four draws.
So the formula in the Soulforge replicates that pretty closely, with some ancillary cost (the souls and diamonds) thrown in on top of that as the “premium” for the guarantee. Which certainly sounds fair to me; on the other hand, if it were “only” 1000 dragonite for the guarantee, that’s probably not enough of a “cost” for the developers to justify it from their end of the economy. Because they want you striving to earn all that Dragonite and they want you spending it; if it were made too inexpensive to sidestep the RNG roulette, they probably wouldn’t have bothered with it in the first place.
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In theory that’s indeed fair but we have seen many times in practice that that’s not the case. Doubling the amount would make it more fair especially compared to how bad the RNG is in other things as well.
So while i respect your opinion and time you put in the calculations still believe cause of how things are for real, and not just on paper, the cost is ridiculious and shouldn’t be praised at all like what the other person did. You can be fine with it though but that’s the limit for me. As nothing praise worthy was done here.
Wait, how did you get that conclusion? I’m sure your methodology was fine (it typically is), but it sure seems counter-intuitive to say that a ~50% chance in 4 eggs means an “average” of 4 eggs (when the expected value for any specific dragon is intuitively 6 eggs).
Meanwhile, I’ve hit 5k in stored Dragonite – waiting for either 5500 so I can craft a batch of eggs all at once, or until Nebuladrax is available directly.
I showed my math above, but I’ll repeat it here for ease of conversation:
The odds of not getting the specific dragon of the six you’re targeting with a random draw is 5/6, or 0.83333…
So if you do four random draws, and you assume that the draws are completely independent events, and that you also assume that there aren’t “unknown variable modifiers” involved in the mathematics (as something like a “pity counter” might influence)?
(5/6) ^ 4 = 0.482253, or roughly a 48.23% chance of not getting that specific dragon after four draws.
Personally, I haven’t had to worry about this. I’ve had very good RNG fortune with the dragon eggs, with a relatively small number of duplicates before I got everything. I’ve had much less RNG fortune with the Dungeon doors, and I haven’t spent anything (Gems or real $$) on dragonite, but even I finally scrounged up enough of the resource to finally get my hands on Stellarix ~10 days ago. (I also had Diamantina tolerably early, although not nearly as early as many others.)
The math is the math. The interpretation of the math is a much more subjective thing.
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Okay, I see the phrasing now. I just wouldn’t equate a 50% cumulative probability as an “average”.
remember whole %% probabilitty theory relies on a perferct world with INFINITE amount of tries.
Real life has limits, you know. And belonging to 0.00001% unluckiest persons who managed to draw 36 dupes in a row doesn’t help your mentality. Chance seems low enough yet exists, and you don’t have enough tries to overcome.
Duh! Now I figured out what I missed. By “average” Kezef meant median, which by definition represents 50% of the population (when sorted by some metric). So yes, there is a median of 4 eggs to get a (any) specific dragon.
(basically the same analysis as Kezef's, just in more words)
- Say we have a population of 1296 users (yes, it’s conveniently 6^4) and each user crafts one Cosmic Egg. How many of them got Solarithus? Maybe about 216 users, leaving 1080 who didn’t get Whitehelm’s sun dragon.
- Now, each user crafts a second Cosmic Egg. How many of them get Solarithus this time? Also about 216 users, if you include about 36 of which also got one from the first egg – leaving 180 users who got it from the second egg exclusively. Either way, that leaves about 900 users who didn’t get Solarithus either time.
- Everyone crafts a third egg. We can safely expect 750 users to not have Solarithus yet.
- After the fourth egg, we can expect about 625 users to still not have Solarithus yet.
- Note that half the population is 648 users, and the difference between the third and fourth egg has crossed that threshold. Since this analysis already sorted the population by # of eggs crafted, (unlike with calculating a mean) we do not need to continue the analysis any further to know that the median is going to be 4 eggs.
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The average amount of draws to get a specific dragon is 6.
Just because there is a 50% chance of getting a specific dragon in 4 draws does not mean that the average is 4.
Consider flipping a coin with a 50% chance that it will be a head. The average tosses needed to get a head is not 1. It is 2 (The total amount of possible outcomes)