After a month of data collection and a lot of number crunching, here is the best calculation I have as to the total weekly value of the adventure boards. Huge thanks to everyone in the data collection thread here for submitting a ton of data.
Usual disclaimers: this is the average weekly reward value of the entire table, assuming you cleared every task including the top task day of and are above level 150. YMMV week to week, or even month to month. But as to the question “what are adventure boards worth”, here is my best estimate.
(I didn’t bother splitting traitstones up into sub categories.)
Sorry, no color highlighting for task types. My context highlighting there is to simply see if I input an entry that can’t be parsed.
Base rewards per task:
This is a lot to take in, so I’ll try to explain what each thing means.
First off, I decided not to do another table that assumes equal weighting between task types. After compiling all the data, it seems pretty clear equal weighting between types of tasks is not the case, and there are very clear trends. Instead, I did a third table where I did my own estimate based on the current data.
Recorded data is simply a table representation of everything posted in this thread. The “day” field was simply for my use to double check if a poster missed a day or not. In general, I tried to align the columns so that each calendar day would fit nicely into a column, and the “day” would represent the day the user started posting, but this wasn’t possible for some posters. For single post week long sets, I moved them to the bottom and just did the whole set at once.
For daily versus “all” sets, the “daily” set included data pulled from only posters that submitted consecutive days and only from data submitted after they had already committed to posting in the thread. A few people submitted their initial set all at once, then continued posting day by day, these were considered daily. For those that missed a day after a week and kept posting, the set before the missed day is considered “daily”, the one after is considered “all”. If they stopped posting entirely, but did 7 or more days in the format requested, all their data was “daily”. “All” set is the daily set… plus everyone who posted anything in this thread, including those that did week long drops all at the same time. The only data excluded from this sheet are the single one time samples.
“Daily” ended up making up the majority of the “all” set. Daily ended up making up the vast majority of the table, at 1500 task samples of the total 1872 (and 435 of the 539 top task samples). A total of 624 player-days worth of data are on the sheet in total. As you can see above, the “purity” of the data didn’t make a huge amount of difference in the end and I’m inclined to believe the “all” set is closer to accurate (more samples and no notable bias).
Now, onto what is shown here. Each cell in each set takes the recorded respective appearance ratio of a given specific task(shown earlier, different sheet), multiplies that by the given appearance ratio of that rarity(compiled, shown on the right), and multiplies that by the reward value of that task to get the shown value, average reward per task slot. For example, a common gold task pays out 5000 gold, and has a current recorded appearance rate of about 15.12% on the all set, and a rarity appearance rate of about 35.2%, so the average per slot per day gold value at common rarity is about 266 (5000 * .1512 * .352). This is repeated for every task type of every rarity throughout the table.
Heres the type ratio table to include all recorded data:
And here it is by reward type:
Keys used the key task appearance rate for every key type, since any give type of key reward only appears on key task and all keys that are present are on this same task. So a 15% chance of key task means 15% of the amount of any keys that task happens to give are added to the results.
Next we have k150 vs k100. These are simple- their reward is multiplied by their appearance rate and summed to get the average weekly value for these two tasks.
The yellow highlighted row is the average daily value for all four slots. This simply multiplies the average per-slot value of each reward by 3 (since there are 3 slots per day) and adds the average daily value of the top slot task to it.
The red highlighted row is average weekly value for the entire table. This is the yellow row times 7. This the average weekly rewards you’ll get every week if you completely clear out the adventure board every day.
The first table shows all the data compiled from the “daily” set, the second shows all data compiled from the “all” set.
The third table is my own estimation based on the current data. What I basically did here is intuited, based on where the numbers are trending, what a human inputted table would look like, making minor adjustments or rounding from the recorded data. For example, I’d expect to see at most a couple decimal places from human inputs, and I’d expect task type ratios that are really close on the recorded data to actually be the same.
For reference, heres my initial estimate I did using a weeks worth of data and only my own data, and assuming completely equal weighting on every task type:
I’m actually sad how little a huge amount of additional information and dispelling false assumptions altered the results.
- The exact same task does not appear to be able to repeat on the same day. This also does not appear to apply to different types of traitstones, which are considered “different tasks”, but thankfully individually weighted away from so that their sum just happens to be about the same as gems on most rarities. (This does not affect the calculated value of the table, which is calculated from recorded data)
- The same rarity never rolled in all three slots, and I suspect this isn’t possible. (This does not affect the calculated value of the table, which is calculated from recorded data)
- Most tasks rarities, especially lower rarities, that offer gems appear to weight toward them. Surprising, I know. However, the same trend is showing for traitstones…
- Gold, glory, souls, and keys (epic and below) appeared less than gems or traitstones on any rarity where all were offered.
- Incidentals (pet food and jewel shards, Ultra-Rare only) barely had a presence on the table at all
- Legendary (96 task type samples) currently appears to favor keys and chaos shards very slightly over gems. The sample size is tough to call if there is any significant weighting here, since 3-4 additional legendary gem tasks would make them about even.
- Mythic task type ratios wobbled back and forth as I input the data, but ended up almost even on chaos shards vs keys at the end of the month-long session, which is surprising considering how streaky they were in the moment
So, those are the facts as they stand now. Minor revisions or corrections could be pending, but likely won’t change much. My opinions to come later. Feel free to discuss.