every single one of these updates are honestly just they addressing the “issue” that is people not running out of gems with proper management. and ofc. on top of gem sinks there will always have a straight cash option. even tho you “can” get gems. it’s still the premium currency of the game and the game is becoming insanely heavy on that alone. super old veterans ofc won’t bother. whatever. this is just becoming unbearable to anyone still having to fish arena for fucking deeds/imp.deeds/writs + tiers on every event and offers (AKA newish players). better spend in any other gacha at this point.
Now THAT’S a lot of Pokemon!
3 Likes
Easy formula, average # rolls is always the inverse of the drop rate so (assuming each of 6 drops has equal probability) you just add them up like this:
= sum( (x/y) iterated over y=[1,x] )
e.g:
=6/6 + 6/5 + 6/4 + 6/3 + 6/2+ 6/1
=1 + 1.2 + 1.5 + 2 + 3 + 6
=14.7 attempts
1 Like
We can take this one step further, based on some initial assumptions.
If we assume an average of 80 Dragonite per “perfect run” (and assume it doesn’t scale based on dungeon level or finding an altar), and a 10% chance of a perfect run each day, that averages out to 8 Dragonite per day over time.
If you complete your dungeon battles every day and never purchase the daily Dragonite offer, the expected 10,500 Dragonite required to craft all of the new Soulforge items will take 10,500 / 8 = 1,313 days to collect, which is more than 3.5 years.
If we assume the daily offer is constant (not a higher value on Sundays like the old dungeon offer), and you purchase the daily offer and complete your daily dungeons every day, you’ll be getting an average of 68 Dragonite per day, taking the estimated time to completion down to 155 days, or just over 5 months, at a total gem cost of 46,500.
Neither option seems great, to be honest. I’m really hoping the “perfect run” Dragonite reward scales significantly with dungeon level. Otherwise we’ll need to throw a ton of gems at the problem for quite some time, and 300 gems per day represents at least 12 daily tribute collections, even for late-game/end-game players.
4 Likes
Hmm, I might miss fighting the 3rd daily boss. Eternal Wulfgarok can’t devour through Barriers, and casting Berserk allows you to pretty much one-shot Eternal Stonehammer with your next Skull match. (Especially if you lead Borealis and Freeze him first.)
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Another new resource. And what to do with millions of souls? What to do with thousands of treasure maps?
5 Likes
some thoughts.
[1] i got 84 dragonite.
so the small sample size so far seems to be 80+ for perfect run.
[2] the 100 gems for 15 diamonds is horribly overpriced.
what the FOOEY were they thinking?
[3] the boss dragon is massively desirable.
everyone complaining about how long it will take to get it because of the cost of dragonite is not considering the power/time ration of the game.
it’s comparable to getting Zuul.
[4]the interface for buying the daily dungeon deals is HORRIBLE. i had real trouble finding the right place to click on buying the dragonite and cursed runes.
[5] you can click on the doors AFTER you finish a perfect run. this explains the ‘glitch’ for folks who had already done my dungeon before update and then opened doors but couldn’t fight.
it also means if you don’t get boon door before the three fights, you can get it after, which means you can possibly get a treasure room after finishing.
[6] dungeon level seems to be randomized. today’s were for me 30 [which upped to 40 after the fact from stairs], 40 and then stairs to 30.
considering most end gamers will want level 20 or whatever the max is, and early folks will want lower levels, this will be frustrating wout some way to choose.
esp if its random.
note also this was from dungeon level one.
the post above is unclear in this.
the dungeon level in the upper right is NOT the level of the individual rooms.
i can guess that the dungeon level gives three rooms of increasing levels but randomly placed.
so looking at my screen, having gone down a flight of stairs, my level is now level 2, and the three rooms are 30, 40, 50. i got thrown by the order in which i played them.
since i started out at one, i will guess the original levels were 20, 30, 40.
but again, idk, what determines dungeon level,if it’s a progressive thing or randomized.
[flurgy]…i will stress again for folks complaining about dragonite, this is NOT something you are meant o get right away, it’s a long term goal.
it is priced to reflect that.
which means it is NOT a pay to play thing.
i could spend 300 gems and get the end game weapons and troops in a few months, but that would require preferring spending gems on that instead of other goals like diamonds or extra sigils etc.
finally, [7] the other fixes included in the update seem to be very good things.
exactly how long term is reasonable to you?
1 Like
So Dragon Egg can hatch duplicate dragon ??
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I would assume this reward scales with the dungeon level. We’ll see in the next few weeks, it’ll take a while for someone to reach level 20 (3 weeks min)
another shit gamemode based on luck and/or completely overpriced.
consistency.
22 Likes
Thank you for this new update! I always loved the Dungeons and now this makes it so much more exciting.
Dragonite is a bit expensive though - and I did not get any from the Dungeon battles I did.
On that note don’t you want to do an overhaul on the Delves too? You know - the drab, repetitive and boring long Delves.
I hope there will be a “Dragonite Gnome” 
1 Like
@Kafka Not sure if phase 1 of the daily deal rework is bugged, but:
I have an open Maugrim Woods task to fully upgrade 14 weapons (not achievable yet) (to power level 28).
I own and have fully upgraded every Maugrim Woods weapon, except for one paywalled weapon which I don’t own.
I received a daily offer for legendary ingots today, after the daily deal rework. This offer is useless, because no weapons exist to upgrade with them. I, and all endgame players, will continue getting this offer until 2 more Maugrim Woods weapons are released.
Unfortunately, this means that removing other dead offers didn’t help players in my situation - the ingot offer will just keep appearing and taking up that offer slot.
1 Like
I hate this.
I found both traps and got 0 Dragonite. While a guildmate was LUCKY and didnt find any traps and got 82 Dragonite.
I am really pissed off by this. ZERO Dragonite for doing the exact same effort, but with 2 x debuffs.
23 Likes
The chance to get dragonite from the daily dungeon is actually 60%.
30% for opening 3 doors containing 3 battles (3/6 x 2/5 x 1/4 x 3! = 6/20 = 30%).
10% for opening 4 doors containing 3 battles, with the first one being an altar room (1/6 x 3/5 x 2/4 x 1/3 x 3! = 10%).
10% for opening 4 doors containing 3 battles, with the second one being an altar room (3/6 x 1/5 x 2/4 x 1/3 x 3! = 10%).
10% for opening 4 doors containing 3 battles, with the third one being an altar room (3/6 x 2/5 x 1/4 x 1/3 x 3! = 10%).
30% + 10% + 10% + 10% = 60%.
Edit: Me stoopid, it’s really just 10%. The permutation is already included, it shouldn’t be factored in twice. 
2 Likes
The RNG was removed from, the initial dungeons realese. You were not assured to get diamonds and the community hated it and i was changed and now you do the same with dragonite? Pfffft
13 Likes
I may just be very tired, but i don’t think you want those permutations in there. You’re multiplying every term in your sum by 6, which is why your result is 6 times 10 percent.
For the simplest case where you just get 3 battles, their potential locations are already accounted for in your fractions. It’s equivalent to drawing marbles out of a bag; their locations don’t matter, just the number of choices left in the pool.
Edit: and yeah, the RNG fiesta is ridiculous and feels bad, whatever the chance is.
4 Likes
The sequence in which you pick the battle rooms doesn’t matter, so you need to permutate. Picking, say, battle 1, battle 2, battle 3 has the same result as picking battle 2, battle 3, battle 1.