If anyone’s wondering, the chance of getting a perfect run is exactly 10%.
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I definitely need to get my morning coffee: I thought it was 4/6 * 3/5* 2/4 = 1/5
Close, but you’re including runs where you get (for example) Boss, Altar, Boss, Trap, Trap, Boss. That wouldn’t count as a Perfect Run.
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I thought it did based on the above, since it’s just about not triggering a trap?
I definitely have no clue how to factor in the Boss, Boss, Altar, Boss combo in my equation though
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You have to defeat all 3 battles though, so you can’t just stop after finding 2 bosses and an altar! 
Edit: If you’re interested in the full working, it’s as follows:
B = boss, A = altar/stairs/gems
BBB = 1/2 * 2/5 * 1/4 = 1/20
BBAB = 1/2 * 2/5 * 1/4 * 1/3 = 1/60
BABB = 1/2 * 1/5 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/60
ABBB = 1/6 * 3/5 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/60
1/20 + 1/60 + 1/60 + 1/60 = 1/10
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The probability of opening all 3 bosses in a row (in just 3 tries) is:
3/6 * 2/5 * 1/4 = 6/120 = 5%
[EDIT: the math]
Assuming that did NOT happen (i.e. the other 95% of the time), you must open everything but the 2 traps, aka. 4 doors total, the probability of which is:
4/6 * 3/5 * 2/4 * 1/3 = (4 * 3 * 2 * 1) / (6 * 5 * 4 * 3) = 2 / 30 = 1/15 = 6.6…% (cumulatively, 6.3…%)
Because these are mutually exclusive cases, we can simply sum them for an overall ~11% chance of a perfect run. I think that’s right? Conditional probabilities can get weird…
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Sorry Stratelier, but you’re making the same mistake as AMT did. You’re counting the BBB run under both your 5% (as BBB) and your 1/15 (as BBBA).
When you multiply that 1/15 by 3/4 to account for the case you’ve counted twice, it becomes 5%, which you can add to your previous 5% to reach the correct 10% total.
Depends on what actually qualifies as a Perfect Run: fighting all three bosses (bonus room optional), or opening all four non-trap doors?
The wording from the patch notes is
If Players manage to defeat all 3 Battles without encountering a Trap, they will earn a Perfect Run
so unless you’ve got a reason to doubt them, it’s any run where you kill all 3 bosses before finding a trap, regardless of whether or not you stumble across an altar during the run.
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Ah, there’s your full breakdown. Everything checks out, and the presentation is DEFINITELY cleaner:
Right. If you open four non-trap doors (base probability 1/15) then one of the four must be the bonus altar and there’s a 75% chance that the last door opened will NOT be it (otherwise the run ends after 3 doors). So 1/15 * 75% = 1/20 = 5%. NOW add the mutually exclusive probabilities and the overall chance of a perfect run is, in fact, 10%.
Got it. Thanks.
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How much dragonite did you got from your battles?
EDIT:
Obviously I skipped that part 
Wasn’t flawless I found a trap of jinx that zeroed out my masteries for battles. So 0 dragonite.
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If you get 0 dragonite from a non-perfect run then this is some incredibly poor design, worse than Cursed Runes/Gnomes and Hoard Mimic combined. Especially considering the dragonite costs of the egg, troops, weapon, and final troop. Wonder if that brilliant design has anything to do with the “CLICK HERE TO PAY TO WIN” button (that you really shouldn’t have had up immediately)?
Changing that 300 gem offer to give the same amount of Dragonite for 50-100 gems would be a WHOLE lot more reasonable. Otherwise you’re going to have a ton of people upset that they’re hitting one of those 2 traps per day and not getting anything at all towards these new troops/weapons. I understand that’s the motivation to make someone hit the pay to win button, but 300 is still too much now that others have posted in this thread what the total gem cost is to get all of the colored dragons available in an egg.
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Dragonite gnome plz
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Dragonite is not the problem…it’s the fact you can get a duplicate on your dragon egg…someone needs to do the math for average number of eggs to open out of 7 to get how many you will need to open to get all troops… I think a lot of you are going to be surprised
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The update is not available for Kindle Fire, when will it be?
On average you will need to open 14.7 eggs to get all 6 dragon troops .so that is 36750 gems to get the 6 base dragons on average…not counting any lucky day you get the extra 80 for a perfect run…and that is the average. My luck it will be 30 plus gem eggs
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An interesting update…I’m happy to have some more items to work towards, but a little less happy about the potentially huge gem sink. I guess some of that will depend on the ability to earn Dragonite rewards from “perfect runs”.
A couple of questions I’d love to get answers to. I’m sure we’ll start to find out as more people play through the new dungeon in the next few days:
- Is the Dragonite reward for a “perfect run” variable? If so, in what range?
- Is the Dragonite reward for a “perfect run” increased if you have already uncovered an altar? If so, by how much?
- Is the Dragonite reward for a “perfect run” increased with higher dungeon levels? If so, by how much?
Finally, I put together an estimate of what it may take to get all of the new Soulforge items:
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I’d already done dungeons pre-update, but you’ve gotta be kidding me with the nearly invisible cursor in the new dungeon menu on console.
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