Basically my position is:
- We have Sirrian confirming in this thread there is some luck manipulation.
- The only intended luck manipulation should decrease CPU luck.
- Sirrian insists several devs have scoured that code to see if it inadvertently fails because they, too, have really bad days.
That doesn’t mean I trust it, but it’s a developer confirmation that there is some luck manipulation and it’s been heavily inspected. I don’t want to get into why I don’t always trust dev scrutiny, it feels mean.
What I want to get into is we do have to acknowledge this game encourages us to create bad situations. When you cast a converter like Ishbaala, the board goes from 7 colors to 5. If the board’s already clogged enough you can theoretically reduce it down to 3. Statistically speaking, that’s a very cascade-rich environment. You might get some moves out of it, but it’s also likely you can lose momentum and hand a good board to your opponent after gaining some advantage.
What happened in OP is a little different, but worth considering. Skyfall is risk.
Let’s consider around the final move, near the 0:22 mark. AWR has a few options on his plate and I think each has a strategic observation. Maybe I missed one but whatever:
- Cast TPK.
- There’s a red 3-match higher up and blue 3-match next to it.
- A right-column purple 3-match.
- A lower 3-match at H4-G4 that would cascade into 2 yellow 3-matches.
- Retreat.
We also have to consider the board state. Both players can win with a single skull match. None are very obvious aright now, and no clear way to engineer one is present. Both players are ready to cast. Marilith’s cast is going to destroy 21 random gems if it happens. (The HP totals on the board make the other ability effects irrelevant for this situation.)
Destroying 21 random gems is the worst possible outcome. That is 32% of the board and means it’s exceptionally hard to predict the final outcome. But it’s also notable that the skull configuration on-board can fall into a configuration that allows a skull match several ways:
- Columns 2, 3, and 5 could horizontally match. It requires a lot of gems to explode, but we know that is possible.
- If column 8 falls 3 rows relative to column 7, a match is set up.
- We expect 20+ gems to fall from skyfall, so there is high risk of lucky cascades that we cannot analyze at this moment.
If these three situations happen, AWR loses. So it’s clear that it is very dangerous to let Marilith cast. Ideally, AWR wants to prevent her turn. But he can’t.
I say that makes “cast TPK” his best move in this scenario. It has a 20% chance to transform Marilith, eliminating the risk of her gem explosion. If TPK fails to transform, AWR is no better off than he was before. The alternatives are:
- (2)'s moves represent allowing a Marilith cast with no improved chance of winning.
- (3) is suicide. That purple match leaves the skull exactly where Marilith needs it to win.
- (4) has unknown probability because it causes a lot of churn. It makes the skull matches along 2, 3, and 5 a little more likely, but it’s also possible after destroying 3 gems in c4 and 1 gem across c{2, 3, 5, 6} the board might change enough to either cause new matches or thwart Marilith’s impending doom. I don’t believe in this move. More churn usually means more risk.
- (5) doesn’t make sense because there is some expectation that a lucky win can happen and it is clear the game should end soon.
So that’s it, AWR’s smartest moves were (1) or (4). But we know (1) has only a 20% probability of removing an immediate threat, and (4) is entirely dependent on luck. Even if (1) succeeds, AWR has to face a new troop from a very weakened position: he could still lose.
TL;DR: AWR had no guarantee of winning this game, and was in a position that was very likely to lose.
He made one of (2)'s moves. That introduced a new skull at A3, which means there are now many ways for c{2, 3, 5} to create a match. Then Marilith destroyed her gems. The columns drop by { 3, 3, 3, 0, 4, 2, 3, 3 }, which seems a fair way to distribute 21 gems across 8 columns. What happens after 32% of the board is shuffled?
- The skull in c5 is destroyed, so it is no longer a risk.
- The skulls in c7 are also molested, but there is still a risk of a c7/c8 skull match with enough matches.
- A 5-gem L match is set up at C6. Marilith gets a free turn and 3 columns with skulls change.
- Note the problem here: C7 and D8 are in a position where if a skull falls into C6 or D6 a match can be made.
- A 3-gem blue match happens at B6. This opens C6 to skyfall.
- Skulls fall into C6 and B6.
- Marilith gets her skull match, but not without slow-rolling a 4-match via F3-F2. I hate when the CPU does this.
So OK, what I see here is the problem is “Marilith exploded 30% of the board”. Once that happens, it’s as likely for a skull match to happen as any other cascade. There were hundreds of ways for AWR to lose this match. The only clear way to not lose was to prevent Marilith’s cast. He only had a 20% chance to do so.
So I think he should’ve cast TPK, but even if he did he’s looking at an 80% chance of loss. His next best move would’ve been that green match cascading to yellows, but since Marilith’s outcome is very random there’s no telling if that was better than 20%.
In short: this is “bad beats”. AWR had to make a decision, but didn’t have enough information to judge the outcome. It’d be worse bad beats if he hadn’t made one of the worst moves, but it took me 3 minutes to make my analysis and I doubt anyone really analyzes the board that closely outside of specific GW matchups.
This was a bad situation. No player likes losing when the entire circumstance is “I only win if I get lucky.”
just if you remember it, somewhere, otherwise I’ll go have a peek (the threads on AI luck/RNG/cheating are pretty long and windy).
if I’m feeling lazy.
.