I’ve tracked many more tributes, and my situation has gotten worse.
| Kingdoms | # Times | Expected # | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 |
| 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | 2.05 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | 6.47 | 3 |
| 4 | 15 | 14.8 | 0 |
| 5 | 29 | 26.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 44 | 36.5 | 8 |
| 7 | 56 | 42.1 | 14 |
| 8 | 30 | 40.7 | -11 |
| 9 | 29 | 33.4 | -4 |
| 10 | 19 | 23.4 | -4 |
| 11 | 8 | 14.2 | -6 |
| 12 | 8 | 7.50 | 1 |
| 13 | 2 | 3.44 | -1 |
| 14 | 1 | 1.38 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 |
My average rate for tribute is presently 24.7, with a 95% confidence interval of 23.7-25.7%. 26% being my true tribute rate is now excluded at higher than 99% confidence. It is still possible that I am getting unlucky (that’s the nature of random numbers – you can never be entirely sure), but the longer things go the fishier they look.
On the other hand, some people are seeing pretty much exactly what they should be. This collection of tributes was sent to me privately; that player can identify themselves if they’d like.
| Kingdoms | # Times | Expected # | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 |
| 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | 1.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3.63 | -1 |
| 4 | 7 | 8.29 | -1 |
| 5 | 16 | 14.6 | 1 |
| 6 | 27 | 20.5 | 7 |
| 7 | 23 | 23.6 | -1 |
| 8 | 21 | 22.8 | -2 |
| 9 | 18 | 18.7 | -1 |
| 10 | 11 | 13.1 | -2 |
| 11 | 9 | 7.98 | 1 |
| 12 | 4 | 4.21 | 0 |
| 13 | 1 | 1.93 | -1 |
| 14 | 0 | 0.78 | -1 |
| 15 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 |
This person’s tribute rate is 25.4%, with a 95% confidence interval of 24-26.7%. Still a little low, but at least consistent with what we have been led to believe.
As always, please consider tracking your own tributes and either posting the results here or sending them to me.