Tribue chance reduction with 3 stars?


#1

I have been keeping track of my Tribute payouts for a few weeks (multiple time per day) and there seems to be a problem with Zeajin. First, almost all kingdoms are Level 10. I have one gold star in almost all my kingdoms except Zaejen that one (and only) is three stars. So it is supposed to pay out 20% of the time or 1 in 5 collections. Yet it seems to only proc about 2% of the time or 1 in 50 collections. I can usually tell even with multiples based on the 600/12/16 payout. All my one star kingdoms seem about correct at 1 in 10 at level 10.

Is anyone else on Xbox/ps4 with 3 star kingdoms noticed a approximately ten fold reduction a tribute collections compared to one star kingdoms?


#2

Wouldn’t surprise me that someone mistyped “20” as “2”.


#3

I have 1 3 star kingdom level 10 on moible (Whitehelm for a 40 glory boost) and soon after getting it to 3 star I went 27 collections over 3 days without getting a tribute from Whitehelm (all tributes even multi gave less then 40) (playing on my iPhone allows me to collect tribute 8+ times a day as my phone is always with me) the very next day I got 3 Whitehelm tributes in a row and another one later in the day.

I think what you have here Talia is a case of RNGesus having it in for you, go to a Casino and play the roulette wheel, just under 50-50 odds playing black/red, yet every time I got I find myself at a table with a 27 streak on a color, and usually when I bet it (or on my 2nd bet) the other color shows up, what are the odds of that? :wink:


#4

Every hour you have 20% chance. It dont stack. Its like you put 5 balls in a bag (4 white and 1 black). Every hour you pick 1 ball and see the result.


#5

Ugh, I hope the devs check this. Sounds like the topic creator tested it pretty well.


#6

The implementation is pretty sraightforward, and not kingdom specific.

Each kingdom’s tribute is listed explicitly (we’ve had a few problems with this in the past).
Three power simply multiplies the tribute chance by two. I don’t see any way that 3 power could do anything else.


#7

Only when we receive 1 tribute. When we receive tributes from 2 or more kingdoms, we have no idea which kingdoms gave the tributes. Would be nice to have the detailed list either directly or something like: press X to see tributes details.


#8

I’ve REALLY been watching this every collection, and the 3 Star Zaejin pays out 600Gold/12Glory/16Souls. So I can do some fast math when the collection screen comes up, even assuming anytime it could possibly be the three star payout it is still under 20% chance.

Does anyone else on the CONSOLE have three star kingdoms, if so, and are you getting about one in five on your 3 star kingdoms?


#9

I have 15 3* or better and honestly I seem to get 1 kingdom or even no kingdom tributes at least a few times a day… I’d assume I should almost never get 1 or 0, tributes at this rate…


#10

Yeah, I’ve been VERY diligent in watching to Tribute collection. There is DEFINATLY something wrong with the percentage of updagraded kingdoms.

As the game stands it almost a wash on the console to upgrade your kingdoms:
Level 10 gives all your bonuses to the enemy for PvP and challenges
If you level your kingdom to 3 stars good luck collecting that kingdom, your better off staying at 1 star odds wise.


#11

@nex @Mr.Strange @Foresti

can we get one of you guys to check on this please?


#12

It seems to me that tribute chance procs more with how many times a day you sign-in versus just signing in the one time a day.


#13

Yeah, I guess you did not know but you can collect tribute every 60 minutes.


#14

If you were talking to me, I did know. This is what I meant in my post.


#15

Hello folks - I’m back after a week’s vacation!

Just looked at the code - the doubling of the tribute chance is very simple.

if kingdomPower >= 4 then chance = chance*2;

(Note that “4” is correct - grey star is 1, gold star is 2, etc.)

So I’d say that there is no bug with 3 gold stars somehow lowering your chance.

Fun math with binomial expansions!

If you have 20 kingdoms at 10% chance each, you have:

  • 12% chance of getting zero tribute.
  • 27% chance of getting 1 tribute.
  • 28.5% chance of getting 2 tributes.
  • 19% chance of getting 3 tributes.
  • 9.0% chance of getting 4 tributes.
  • 4.5% chance of getting 5+ tributes.

If you have 20 kingdoms at 20% chance each, you have:

  • 7.1% chance of getting zero or 1 tributes.
  • 13.7% chance of getting 2 tributes.
  • 20.5% chance of getting 3 tributes.
  • 21.8% chance of getting 4 tributes.
  • 36.9% chance of getting 5+ tributes.

The math gets harder for a mix of 10% and 20% kingdoms - so I can’t easily break this down farther.


Coming soon to a console near you! (Weekly Event: Khaziel)
#16

And if I’m not mistaken 1 chance on 95,3 trillions to receive 20 tributes with 20 kingdoms at 20% :slight_smile:

95 367 431 640 625 exactly. Am I right, @Mr.Strange ?


#17

What makes it go up in chance then down, also i can assume this is the same for pc/app.


#18

This is just how the math works for binomial expansions.

Imagine tossing 100 coins that can be either heads or tails. If we made a list of the chance of getting X heads, it would be something like this:

Chance of 1 heads : 0.0001%
Chance of 5 heads : 0.01%
Chance of 10 heads : 1%
Chance of 20 heads : 12%
Chance of 50 heads : 33%
Chance of 80 heads : 12%
Chance of 90 heads : 1%
Chance of 95 heads : 0.01%

(totally made-up numbers)

This makes sense - you would expect that very high OR very low numbers of “heads” results would be improbable, with most results being in the 40-60 heads range.

Checking for tributes is just the same mathematically - except instead of a 50/50 chance, it’s a 10/90 or 20/80 chance. Which pushes everything to one side - but doesn’t change the essential bell-curve shape of the distribution.

If you use D20 for tabletop role-playing games, you can think of tribute as trying to roll a 1 or 2 on a D20. If you roll 20 D20s, and check how many were 1 or 2, that’s mathematically equivalent.


#19

I thought the chance would either be constantly increasing or constantly decreasing, to think that their is a hump in the data is what has me confused.


#20

It’s actually quite simple as this formula demonstrates.

http://sites.nicholas.duke.edu/statsreview/files/2013/06/normpdf1.jpg

:laughing: