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Tribue chance reduction with 3 stars?

I have been keeping track of my Tribute payouts for a few weeks (multiple time per day) and there seems to be a problem with Zeajin. First, almost all kingdoms are Level 10. I have one gold star in almost all my kingdoms except Zaejen that one (and only) is three stars. So it is supposed to pay out 20% of the time or 1 in 5 collections. Yet it seems to only proc about 2% of the time or 1 in 50 collections. I can usually tell even with multiples based on the 600/12/16 payout. All my one star kingdoms seem about correct at 1 in 10 at level 10.

Is anyone else on Xbox/ps4 with 3 star kingdoms noticed a approximately ten fold reduction a tribute collections compared to one star kingdoms?

Wouldn’t surprise me that someone mistyped “20” as “2”.

I have 1 3 star kingdom level 10 on moible (Whitehelm for a 40 glory boost) and soon after getting it to 3 star I went 27 collections over 3 days without getting a tribute from Whitehelm (all tributes even multi gave less then 40) (playing on my iPhone allows me to collect tribute 8+ times a day as my phone is always with me) the very next day I got 3 Whitehelm tributes in a row and another one later in the day.

I think what you have here Talia is a case of RNGesus having it in for you, go to a Casino and play the roulette wheel, just under 50-50 odds playing black/red, yet every time I got I find myself at a table with a 27 streak on a color, and usually when I bet it (or on my 2nd bet) the other color shows up, what are the odds of that? :wink:

Every hour you have 20% chance. It dont stack. Its like you put 5 balls in a bag (4 white and 1 black). Every hour you pick 1 ball and see the result.

Ugh, I hope the devs check this. Sounds like the topic creator tested it pretty well.

The implementation is pretty sraightforward, and not kingdom specific.

Each kingdom’s tribute is listed explicitly (we’ve had a few problems with this in the past).
Three power simply multiplies the tribute chance by two. I don’t see any way that 3 power could do anything else.

Only when we receive 1 tribute. When we receive tributes from 2 or more kingdoms, we have no idea which kingdoms gave the tributes. Would be nice to have the detailed list either directly or something like: press X to see tributes details.

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I’ve REALLY been watching this every collection, and the 3 Star Zaejin pays out 600Gold/12Glory/16Souls. So I can do some fast math when the collection screen comes up, even assuming anytime it could possibly be the three star payout it is still under 20% chance.

Does anyone else on the CONSOLE have three star kingdoms, if so, and are you getting about one in five on your 3 star kingdoms?

I have 15 3* or better and honestly I seem to get 1 kingdom or even no kingdom tributes at least a few times a day… I’d assume I should almost never get 1 or 0, tributes at this rate…

Yeah, I’ve been VERY diligent in watching to Tribute collection. There is DEFINATLY something wrong with the percentage of updagraded kingdoms.

As the game stands it almost a wash on the console to upgrade your kingdoms:
Level 10 gives all your bonuses to the enemy for PvP and challenges
If you level your kingdom to 3 stars good luck collecting that kingdom, your better off staying at 1 star odds wise.

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@nex @Mr.Strange @Foresti

can we get one of you guys to check on this please?

It seems to me that tribute chance procs more with how many times a day you sign-in versus just signing in the one time a day.

Yeah, I guess you did not know but you can collect tribute every 60 minutes.

If you were talking to me, I did know. This is what I meant in my post.

Hello folks - I’m back after a week’s vacation!

Just looked at the code - the doubling of the tribute chance is very simple.

if kingdomPower >= 4 then chance = chance*2;

(Note that “4” is correct - grey star is 1, gold star is 2, etc.)

So I’d say that there is no bug with 3 gold stars somehow lowering your chance.

Fun math with binomial expansions!

If you have 20 kingdoms at 10% chance each, you have:

  • 12% chance of getting zero tribute.
  • 27% chance of getting 1 tribute.
  • 28.5% chance of getting 2 tributes.
  • 19% chance of getting 3 tributes.
  • 9.0% chance of getting 4 tributes.
  • 4.5% chance of getting 5+ tributes.

If you have 20 kingdoms at 20% chance each, you have:

  • 7.1% chance of getting zero or 1 tributes.
  • 13.7% chance of getting 2 tributes.
  • 20.5% chance of getting 3 tributes.
  • 21.8% chance of getting 4 tributes.
  • 36.9% chance of getting 5+ tributes.

The math gets harder for a mix of 10% and 20% kingdoms - so I can’t easily break this down farther.

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And if I’m not mistaken 1 chance on 95,3 trillions to receive 20 tributes with 20 kingdoms at 20% :slight_smile:

95 367 431 640 625 exactly. Am I right, @Mr.Strange ?

What makes it go up in chance then down, also i can assume this is the same for pc/app.

This is just how the math works for binomial expansions.

Imagine tossing 100 coins that can be either heads or tails. If we made a list of the chance of getting X heads, it would be something like this:

Chance of 1 heads : 0.0001%
Chance of 5 heads : 0.01%
Chance of 10 heads : 1%
Chance of 20 heads : 12%
Chance of 50 heads : 33%
Chance of 80 heads : 12%
Chance of 90 heads : 1%
Chance of 95 heads : 0.01%

(totally made-up numbers)

This makes sense - you would expect that very high OR very low numbers of “heads” results would be improbable, with most results being in the 40-60 heads range.

Checking for tributes is just the same mathematically - except instead of a 50/50 chance, it’s a 10/90 or 20/80 chance. Which pushes everything to one side - but doesn’t change the essential bell-curve shape of the distribution.

If you use D20 for tabletop role-playing games, you can think of tribute as trying to roll a 1 or 2 on a D20. If you roll 20 D20s, and check how many were 1 or 2, that’s mathematically equivalent.

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I thought the chance would either be constantly increasing or constantly decreasing, to think that their is a hump in the data is what has me confused.

It’s actually quite simple as this formula demonstrates.

http://sites.nicholas.duke.edu/statsreview/files/2013/06/normpdf1.jpg

:laughing:

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