I decided to compile the data of everyone doing big sets (going upward from the bottom up to Neritars set, avoiding duplicates)
Total Samples: 2393
| Submitter | C | R | U | E | L | M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Voq | 29 | 36 | 101 | 33 | 11 | 9 |
| HugeOgre | 70 | 99 | 182 | 54 | 23 | 7 |
| Fleg | 67 | 90 | 168 | 50 | 16 | 9 |
| TheIdleOne | 33 | 48 | 67 | 13 | 6 | 7 |
| Avathar | 22 | 18 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 0 |
| Clark | 12 | 7 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 0 |
| Mithran | 24 | 43 | 70 | 21 | 9 | 2 |
| Laenir | 22 | 34 | 45 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| Redi1 | 41 | 70 | 93 | 27 | 7 | 12 |
| Shimrra | 8 | 13 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Neritar | 82 | 78 | 166 | 44 | 26 | 4 |
| TOTALS | 410 | 536 | 994 | 284 | 116 | 53 |
| AVG% | 17.13% | 22.40% | 41.54% | 11.87% | 4.85% | 2.21% |
| Drop Rate Esimate (95% CL) | 15.62%~19.12% | 20.73%~24.59% | 39.56%~44.13% | 10.57%~13.57% | 3.99%~5.98% | 1.63%~2.99% |
If the rates of Cedrics aren’t intended to drop ~40%+, then something is probably wrong, since we are fairly confident they do. We have a 99.9999% confidence level that the true rate of cedrics token drops falls between about 36.5% and 46.5% based on our sample size, so if the “true rate” is supposed to be anything lower than 36%, well, something is absolutely wrong.
However…
We can’t know if something is wrong based on this because we don’t know how it is supposed to be. Not likely this will result in a change for the better if it is wrong and it does get noticed… but, based on other stuff that has flown under the radar for ridiculous lengths of time, I think drop rate discussions are on auto-filter for all the staff unless they are directly reported as a bug. And its not going to be me for this one, I don’t feel like having to lobby just for what would, best case, probably result in a nerf, and worst case, be wasted effort. Nysha numbers look depressing, but probably intentionally so.