Short testing of resurrection rates

I have slightly expanded the test from 75 to 100 samples to see if the trend continues. And yes, it does continue.

I want to emphasize again that the purpose of the test is NOT to confirm that resurrection rate is 25% or whatever. The purpose of the test is to determine whether resurrection is random and independent. Here are updated results.

Actual data has 35 resurrections including 5 double and 1 triple. Total percentage is 35% which is within acceptable error range of assumed 25% at P=0.05 for this sample size.

Simulated data had 28 resurrections, percentage is 28%.

However, as I wrote previously, according to the Runs test, actual data have z-stat of 2.05 and P value of 0.041. While simulated data have z-stat 0.420 and P value is 0.675.

This means with 95% probability that the actual results are not random and independent. This is very firm conclusion and I am completely sure that sample size is absolutely enough. Also, it is highly unlikely that the data points are not independent since the data were obtained through multiple sessions and even encountering fully traited Dragon Soul should be an independent event. Otherwise I have to presume some conspiracy that facing TDS that resurrected (or not) changes your chance of encountering TDS which is obviously not true.

So, the only reasonable outcome is that resurrection event is not randomly determined by the game. The evidence of the Runs test is sufficient to make this statement at more than 95% probability. And developers might want to explain that. :wink:

Runs test is a quite moderately powerful tool. If some random and independent event passes the Runs test it does not mean that the event is actually random and independent. But if it fails the test, it certainly means that it is not random and independent. There is quite a lot of literature about that and the test is extensively used in determining the quality of pRNG. And the pRNG itself in its pure form passes the test just fine. That means that GoW has something that alters the results of pRNG. So far, I am not aware of anything that developers told us about non-randomness of resurrection events.

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