Do you have the actual data? I can try to run some simple test to determine if it is random and independent or not random and independent similar to what I’ve done with TDS resurrection, which was not random. Short testing of resurrection rates - #7 by akots
Since it is not random, your probability calculation is not correct because, strictly speaking, the events are not random and independent.
There has been some additional discussion in this thread as well: The Dragon Soul resurrect trait triggers more often than it should
The format should be a simple sequence of 0 (cast but not devoured) or 1 (cast and devoured) in the exact sequence as it happened. There should be no omissions. If something is omitted, it should be noted as unknown. I need a sequence at least 75 and better 100 excluding omissions. Running test with omissions is quite tricky but still should be possible.
It will be interesting also to run tests with player sample and AI sample to see if there is something different about these. And it will also make the test more reliable with higher statistical power due to comparison.