One thing that we encounter a lot at Gems of War is people not understanding why they haven’t received mythic cards. As such, I wrote up a (very weird) explanation on how probability affects our drop rates.
As we do not disclose our drop rates, we will use a fictional example to explain the relationship between drop rates and probability. For example, when you visit a rainbow, there will be the chance to either find a pony or a unicorn. Now, unicorns are much rarer than ponies. As such, there is only a 1 in 100 chance to find a unicorn. If someone has a 1 in 100 chance of finding a unicorn at a rainbow, they will always have a 1 in 100 chance of finding a unicorn at a rainbow. The trap that many unicorn hunters fall into is assuming that their previous visits will change the results of their future visits, but this is not the case as each time a rainbow is visited it is fresh and new! Even if you have previously visited 100 rainbows and only found ponies, there is no guarantee that at the next rainbow you will find a unicorn. Each time you visit a rainbow there is still only a 1 in 100 chance of a unicorn being found. Some lucky unicorn hunters will find several unicorns per 100 rainbows, while others will find none. This is purely down to luck and chance.
As a further example, let’s say you’re flipping a coin. There’s a 1 in 2 chance that it lands heads. However, when you flip the coin again it faces tails up. Next time the chance is still 1 in 2. Tails again. The next chance is still 1 in 2. The past results don’t affect the outcome or chance of the next result. That’s how probability and randomness work.
I hope this has helped you all understand how our drop rates work in regards to probability and randomness. With that said, happy unicorn hunting!