Many players and guilds experienced a statistically unlikely lack of epic vault key drops during the last vault event. Because vault keys are so rare, it’s difficult for players to see if something is actually wrong. Can someone look at the logs from the last vault event and report either:
-The number of vault keys that dropped, and the number of epic keys that dropped, or
-The observed ratio of epic keys to vault keys during the vault event
It was previously stated that the code looks fine, but that doesn’t mean very much. One popular theory is that the epic vault key droprate isn’t increased on vault weekends, making epic keys a significantly smaller proportion of total keys than was intended. There could be many other explanations, but if things are working correctly, a quick look at the data would put our minds at ease.
Droprates are absolutely sacred in a game like this, especially when the rates are very low. If players don’t trust the promised odds, they won’t want to spend money or engage with your content. People are going to spend hundreds of hours farming and collecting data this weekend; it would be greatly appreciated if someone could check the logs in advance.
Thanks for considering this request! I know that your development schedule is very hectic, especially in the current year, and that it’s frustrating to explain things to people who don’t understand Statistics. It would be great to have some kind of statement before people start running hypothesis tests and building confidence intervals.
This has been asked many times, and has led me to believe that ∞+2 doesn’t control the whole development pipeline (pure conjecture).
The official reply has been given along the lines of code audit, and we’ll just have to put our faith into that, , hope for this weekend and look at the data again.
The code has been audited. It is working correctly.
^
|
(hoping secret sauce added in between**)
Nope. I trust the devs on a lot of things, but they’ve lost my trust on admissions of error when the data clearly shows that something went wrong. It looks like we’re going to have at least one more Vault weekend with horrendously low Epic Key drop rates before something is done (either to correct the drop rate or admit they never intended to give us 10% Epic Keys).
Why does a fix** to the drop rate need to be dependent on this?
I care only about the former, I couldn’t care less about the latter and won’t get hung up over it. I don’t care to abuse developers to get the latter, but would like to help in any way to cause the former.
Exactly this. If there was a problem and it was stealth fixed between events, I’m completely (well, 99%) fine with this. I just want to make sure it’s working correctly before I spend dozens of additional hours casting Phoenicia.
Players spent hundreds of hours collecting precommitted data across thousands of drops, and have shown with 99.99% confidence that the drop rate is dramatically lower than was advertised and was double-checked. The math points to the drop rate being off by nearly an order of magnitude.
There hasn’t yet been any response, but hopefully that’s because the issue is being investigated further and compensation for time wasted is being decided on.
This is more important than the value of an epic key or the associated achievement; this update, along with several others, has completely shattered my faith in advertised drop rates. As someone who spent a few dozen hours across two weekends grinding for an epic key drop, I’m really struggling to find the motivation to keep playing this game.
Ok, that’s all from me on this issue. Thanks again to everyone who collected data!
I don’t even think I’d be that upset if they were actually supposed to be this rare. Especially not if they were ever a guaranteed reward somewhere at some point.
What bothers me is the mis-stated rate, and the failure to address it. And no — that doesn’t mean don’t tell me the rates.
That means when you state the intended rates (as you should), be sure that you are both correct-in-statement and confident that the coding pans out results that match the stated rate.
I would say we are an active guild, 30 members. Not one person in our guild has come forward to say they got an Epic key from playing this gnome weekend. Also, I did PvP for many hours. I found 2 pet gnomes, and very few gnomes overall this time. Because of my hours of grinding PvP and Explore, I did reach but not complete the 2nd tier of gnome rewards. Very disappointed in the outcome, but not surprised.
, hope for 
this weekend and look at the data again.
