Mythic Drop Rates


#1

Has anyone got frustrated and pissed on the mythic drop rate on ps4? I finally got all troops except 6 mythics and zul… I gathered more than 250 gem keys and 900 gems to get suna and got nothing. Decided to buy 500 gems and activate vip chest access but nothing… And top of that a freaking guildless,lvl18 noob pulled 3!! Wtf is wrong with these drop rates? Yesterday a lvl 8 pulled Gargantaur and Infernous!!And top of that my vip chest give me only traitstones and epics,not even legendaries… I think the game is rigged so it can benefit new players


#2

Roughly a 35% overall chance for success, that’s much less likely than winning a coin flip. Weird, you actually sound surprised for not succeeding against all odds.

Which just goes to show that players who invest heavily early on can start out with some pretty good stuff. Weird, you actually sound surprised that somebody new to the game might spend a significant amount of money.

Here’s your tinfoil hat: :rescue_worker_helmet:

I think you pretty much suck at understanding probabilities. That’s really nothing unusual, most people do, they just tend be a little less eager to inform the whole world about it. For a better rainbow to chase you might want to try pity timers, those would be a really welcome addition to the game.


#3

You don’t know the probability, is the only thing wrong.

250 gem keys is nothing. There is an 0.12% chance of getting a mythic from one key. For future reference, you need to spend 2,500 gem keys to have a 90% chance, which still leaves a very wide 10% margin for failure. For VIP keys, you need around 275. Lots of people spent far more resources than you and still didn’t get it.

This is a gacha game. A slot machine. Your level, your guild, and how much money you spend have nothing to do with what you get. That level 8 newbie is an outlier. Rare. I didn’t get my first mythic until around level 400, and I know people that took even longer. The only way level is relevant is “you need keys”, so generally by the time you’ve reached certain levels you’ve spent certain predictable amounts of keys.

The game is not rigged towards new players. It’s rigged towards the house, like any casino. The devs bet setting this drop rate would cause a lot of people who don’t understand probability to spend money on gems that give them an almost 0% chance of proceeding. They won. The 900 gems were what, 75 gem keys? 6%. Your money was worth a 6% chance. You’ve got better odds of winning a free value meal in McDonald’s Monopoly, speaking per dollar.


#4

It’s actually less than that. There’s two rolls involved, first for item type (80% chance for Troop), second for rarity within the Troop type (0.12% chance for Mythic). Odds for a Mythic Troop are 80% * 0.12% = 0.096%.


#5

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The chance to get a Mythic is simply far lower than you think, and you need to open far more chests than you realize to get a decent chance. And, yes, That Guy may get a Mythic in a random single pull - That Guy might also win the lottery, but just because it happened doesn’t mean it was likely.


#6

Well,I got Ubaset out 0f 10 gem keys and Undine out of 50 gem keys. According to players in chat the probabilities of mythic troop are around 1/800 for glory or seals,1/150 for gem chests and 1/50 for vip… I dont suck on understanding… I just think that some players get nicer treatment than others… Just now,around 5 minutes ago a 127 lvl pulled 3 scorpius and the chat went nuts… do u know how? He admitted he used 7 event keys from weekly tasks rewards… Just explain to me how that thing s possible


#7

Availability bias. You see highlighted in chat the level 127 who pulled a mythic with just a few keys. You don’t see the thousands of other people who don’t pull a mythic with their keys.

Also, those probability estimates for pulling mythics seem wildly optimistic.


#8

That’s true as RNG acts differently for each person. For example, I’m level 498 and I haven’t pulled a single mythic yet, and when I tried to get Suna, I used 1500 glory keys, and 150 gems keys. The result, 1 keeper of souls, and bloodhammer.

Those rates are way too optimistic, as mythic drop rates are less than .1% for gem chests. And in guild chests the standard drop rate is halved until you have the guardians mythic with at least 4 of them. Best bet is VIP, but that can take a while depending on how quickly you can buy up to VIP lv. 5.


#9

Never trust chat, it is far more often wrong than right.

The real odds are:
VIP chests: 1 in 100 chance
Gem chests 1 in 1000 chance
Glory chests 1 in 10,000 chance


#10

It goes up and down.
About 2 months ago I got 4 mythics in one week,haven´t gotten any since then…


#11

You’re either channeling someone or you’re their alt…:thinking:


#12

I don’t see the issue, if the drop rate is low, then it should be low, otherwise it wouldn’t be a mythic. All i say is take what you can get and appreciate what you have.
Cuz right now I’m playing for free on xbox one and I was very excited to get 2 mythics pulled so far.


#13

The only way to win is not to play. Or spend real money.


#14

You suck at understanding probabilities. Huge difference there.

Chance to get a mythic when opening a single chest:

  • Glory: 0.014% = 1:7143
  • Gem: 0.096% = 1:1042
  • Vip: 1% = 1:100

You won the big jackpot? TWICE? And you think you are getting a bad deal?!? I hereby curse your account with fairness, the next mythic will take you at least 3000 gem keys to obtain, to balance out the incredible luck you’ve had so far.

That was a dev account verifying chest drop rates with unlimited keys, they were just joking around a little.


#15

So,you know everything about dev accounts and drop rates?O,Omnipotent,know it all being!! Riddle me this!! How come I’ve fought the guy that pulled the Scorpius in pvp and he is in a guild? Unless game devs get in guilds and benefit the other players in their guilds with unlimited keys and gems…


#16

Also if the mythics on vip chests are 1/100 how come I’ve opened more than 250 vip chests and cannot get not even legendaries?


#17

Have you considered that devs might form their own, non player guilds for testing purposes?


#18

Well, it’s an awful pun but the key issue is that you suck at understanding probabilities.


#19

RNG doesn’t care what level you are or how much you spend.


#20

Ubastet with 10 gem keys!!! That is some seriously good luck!!! I think it took me about 500 gem keys and 3000 glory keys, and I was pleased with that!