Holy backflipping flock of geese


#1

From an iron key guys, an iron key.


ps4.


#2

Congrats! Not sure I’ve ever seen someone that lucky before with a mere Iron Key before. :key:

Can’t even imagine how low the chances of this happening are.


#3

Wow - congrats to you !
We should be so lucky - lucky,lucky,lucky :wink:


#4

Odds of getting 1x common and 2x legendary from an iron key: 1 in 5736 (roughly)


#5

Kylie. Really?:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:


#6

@ Rasper…

What are your assumptions?

My stats show you get approx one legendary per 200 iron cards opened (0.5%) or one legendary every 67 iron keys.

You can get two legendary characters in one iron key three ways:
with 1st & 2nd card, 1st & 3rd and 2nd & 3rd.

(1/200 x 1/200) x 3 = ~1 in 13,000


#7

The rates that I looked had magic keys at 3% and magic was 3 times iron, so I counted them as 1% per slot. The commons were 62%

so it was 62/100 * 1/100 * 1/100 * 3 = 0.000186 = 1/5736 roughly.


#8

The chance of a legendary on an iron key has been stated to be 1.6% by our devs


#9

So my 0.5% estimate per card was pretty close to spot on! :grinning:


#10

So 1.6% of 1.6? So about a 0.0256%.
Meaning close to 1 in 3906 chance of two Legendary’s in one Iron Chest.

According to my calculations, 3 Legends in an Iron Chest would be close to 1 in 244140.
So you have a better chance of getting 2-in-1 chest six times before getting 3-in-1 chest.

:bar_chart: Statistics are fun!


#11

That is really flukey! Well done! Very good legendary cards at that!


#12

Thanks guys, didnt know it was THAT rare even, i thought maybe about 5% per legendary or something but this was really lucky, maybe i shouldve bought a lottery ticket that day ohwell. So far am using the gloomleaf in my team cause im still leveling jarl before i want to utilize him properly. Any ideas how to make either optimal? Currently going with torch hero (create reds), berserker, gloomleaf, goblin shaman. Doing decent. Heres a match i only won cause of another luck after being bombarded with ai cheating to the max a bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXXKR4-Gsxo


#13

Assuming that to be true, the chance of a specific card being legendary is 0.5365%

Using excel I find that:
Chances of no legendary - 98.4%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 62.4
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 11,643
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 6,475,761

If magic keys are 3x the chance, so 1.61% per card:
Chances of no legendary - 95.2%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 21
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 1,307
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 239,843


#14

I am unsure what exactly the 1.6% related to - I believe though that it’s 1.6% per card rolled, not 1.6% per key - and that fits my own experience of opening 100s of keys at once at times…

That would profoundly effect your maths… :smile:

Sorry, my first post was a bit ambiguous…


#15

If it is 1.6% per card

Iron
Chances of no legendary - 95.3%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 21.2
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 1,323
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 244,140

Magic
Chances of no legendary - 86.3%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 7.3
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 152
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 9,042

(easy to change when you set up your spreadsheet properly)


#16

I would expect nothing less! (and in real life I head up a consultancy team that builds spreadsheet models for other businesses!)

…did you know that the distributions of the different legendaries are skewed… some are rarer than others… especially Crimson Bat, and Keeper Of Souls I believe…

…and I think the skew is throughout the rarity levels - hence I have my 273 Dire Wolves…


#17

Ive been hoping for a barbearian or whatever its name is card for ages tbh, just got 5 iron keys for a challenge but that got me zilch, all cards i already had and just one or two rares i already had. Ahwell, I guess i had enough luck with the legs already.


#18

Not sure if Barbearius (cheesey-name-ius) is available in chests yet… it was an event troop… there’s a list somewhere on the forum that I am too lazy to link you to… :smile:


#19

In this case both me and pretty much every statistic published by players around here would have been profoundly unlucky so far.


#20

Of course, all of this likely goes out the window in a week or so when they overhaul the key system, right?