# Holy backflipping flock of geese

#1

From an iron key guys, an iron key.

ps4.

#2

Congrats! Not sure Iâ€™ve ever seen someone that lucky before with a mere Iron Key before.

Canâ€™t even imagine how low the chances of this happening are.

#3

Wow - congrats to you !
We should be so lucky - lucky,lucky,lucky

#4

Odds of getting 1x common and 2x legendary from an iron key: 1 in 5736 (roughly)

#5

Kylie. Really?

#6

@ Rasperâ€¦

My stats show you get approx one legendary per 200 iron cards opened (0.5%) or one legendary every 67 iron keys.

You can get two legendary characters in one iron key three ways:
with 1st & 2nd card, 1st & 3rd and 2nd & 3rd.

(1/200 x 1/200) x 3 = ~1 in 13,000

#7

The rates that I looked had magic keys at 3% and magic was 3 times iron, so I counted them as 1% per slot. The commons were 62%

so it was 62/100 * 1/100 * 1/100 * 3 = 0.000186 = 1/5736 roughly.

#8

The chance of a legendary on an iron key has been stated to be 1.6% by our devs

#9

So my 0.5% estimate per card was pretty close to spot on!

#10

So 1.6% of 1.6? So about a 0.0256%.
Meaning close to 1 in 3906 chance of two Legendaryâ€™s in one Iron Chest.

According to my calculations, 3 Legends in an Iron Chest would be close to 1 in 244140.
So you have a better chance of getting 2-in-1 chest six times before getting 3-in-1 chest.

Statistics are fun!

#11

That is really flukey! Well done! Very good legendary cards at that!

#12

Thanks guys, didnt know it was THAT rare even, i thought maybe about 5% per legendary or something but this was really lucky, maybe i shouldve bought a lottery ticket that day ohwell. So far am using the gloomleaf in my team cause im still leveling jarl before i want to utilize him properly. Any ideas how to make either optimal? Currently going with torch hero (create reds), berserker, gloomleaf, goblin shaman. Doing decent. Heres a match i only won cause of another luck after being bombarded with ai cheating to the max a bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXXKR4-Gsxo

#13

Assuming that to be true, the chance of a specific card being legendary is 0.5365%

Using excel I find that:
Chances of no legendary - 98.4%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 62.4
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 11,643
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 6,475,761

If magic keys are 3x the chance, so 1.61% per card:
Chances of no legendary - 95.2%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 21
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 1,307
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 239,843

#14

I am unsure what exactly the 1.6% related to - I believe though that itâ€™s 1.6% per card rolled, not 1.6% per key - and that fits my own experience of opening 100s of keys at once at timesâ€¦

That would profoundly effect your mathsâ€¦

Sorry, my first post was a bit ambiguousâ€¦

#15

If it is 1.6% per card

Iron
Chances of no legendary - 95.3%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 21.2
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 1,323
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 244,140

Magic
Chances of no legendary - 86.3%
Chances of exactly 1 legendary - 1 in 7.3
Chances of exactly 2 legendary - 1 in 152
Chances of exactly 3 legendary - 1 in 9,042

#16

I would expect nothing less! (and in real life I head up a consultancy team that builds spreadsheet models for other businesses!)

â€¦did you know that the distributions of the different legendaries are skewedâ€¦ some are rarer than othersâ€¦ especially Crimson Bat, and Keeper Of Souls I believeâ€¦

â€¦and I think the skew is throughout the rarity levels - hence I have my 273 Dire Wolvesâ€¦

#17

Ive been hoping for a barbearian or whatever its name is card for ages tbh, just got 5 iron keys for a challenge but that got me zilch, all cards i already had and just one or two rares i already had. Ahwell, I guess i had enough luck with the legs already.

#18

Not sure if Barbearius (cheesey-name-ius) is available in chests yetâ€¦ it was an event troopâ€¦ thereâ€™s a list somewhere on the forum that I am too lazy to link you toâ€¦

#19

In this case both me and pretty much every statistic published by players around here would have been profoundly unlucky so far.

#20

Of course, all of this likely goes out the window in a week or so when they overhaul the key system, right?