LTs drop tables are available here:

1. Let’s split all drop rates into 5% parts (5% glory chance, 5% glory chance, 6 instances of 5% glory keys, and so on). This will simplify future calculations;
2. 9.5% for Leg and 0.5% are merged into single 10% troop chance. And divided into 5% and 5% too;
3. Now we have 20 instances in three tables, which brings us to a little less than 20x20x20 possible combinations (duplicates of the same type are not allowed), namely 3728;
4. These 3728 LTs give us 427800 glory, 21224 gl keys, 6944 g keys, 3928 e keys, 3040 runics, 6280 arcanes, 580 troops;
5. One LT gives on average:
``````114.753 glory;
5.693 glory keys;
1.863 gem keys;
1.172 event keys;
0.815 runics;
1.747 arcanes;
0.1478 Legendaries;
0.00778 random (!) Mythics.
``````

I’m an endgame player, random Mythics, Legendaries and stones are useless to me, and since

``````1 Mythic = 142860 glory = 1041 gem keys = 1041 event keys
``````
``````1 LT has 0.0045 Mythic buying power
``````

1 LT is worth 33’333 gold = 111.11 gold chests.
They will drop

``````111.11*0.03*20 = 66.666 glory
111.11*0.01*1.5 = 1.666 gems
``````

which results in

``````33333 gold = 0.000837 Mythic buying power
``````

Turns out that LTs are 5.39 times more efficient than gold chests IF all 30 members of your guild donate the same amount of gold as you.
If there are 5 or less such players and you spend more than 180k gold to finish each task, don’t go with LTs and buy chests (only if you’re an endgame player and have almost all Mythics).

2 Likes

Those are some interesting calculations.

I’m an endgame player, yet every now and then, I do get a legend from LTs that helps me mythic some legendary card in my collection. I have all the Mythics from chests now, but I’ve gained two previously missing mythics from LTs.

So, for me, I’d still rather put gold into LTs which “could” land me a legendary troop I need plus the other resources. Plus, I have lower level guildmates that still benefit from any random legendary or mythic troop drop. I’d rather that gold benefit them than toss it at gold chests for those tiny gains.

3 Likes

A few things, and I’m going to be brief for now and only expand on this later if I need to:

• Table 3 is rolled first (according to devs). Calculations need to be revised accordingly
• Even if you are after new or unique mythics, the mythic in the task is still has some value. Its MPP would need to be scaled by the individual’s current collection versus missing droppable mythics. It is zero if you have all previous ones, though.
• A single person’s contributions need to be weighed against the whole of the guild’s contributions long term to determine how much of a legendary task they are “buying”. An average 3 mil contributor in a guild where the average of everyone else is 520k could be seen as the 3 mil buying every LT, or it could be seen as their total contribution is about 16.6% of the guild total, or 166k per LT.
• The more people act selfishly, the less incentive to try and benefit the collective. In turn, there is a greater likelihood that everyone gets less.

My conclusion when I did this calculations a while back is that there still doesn’t really exist a real world scenario where it is “better” to buy gold keys over donating to legendary tasks. Donating more generally encourages others to donate more, and donating less deincenvizes this. If you are far above the average for your guild, you might consider holding onto some gold after you’ve surpassed the average several times over, but these are still better distributed for later slower weeks to incentive everyone to keep donations up. Gold Keys are only really universally “better” with one or few people carrying a small guild, in which case, they probably have reasons to do so outside of maximizing personal gain for mythic resources, which, in the end, is really really small per hour even with a max speed PvP farm team if you get down to gold to gold key to mythics conversions.

4 Likes

With less resources available and new Legendary troops in event chests every Guild Wars week, the Legendary Troops from Legendary Tasks can be very useful, since LTs pulls from all? or mostly all Legendaries in the drop pool… (I have no clue if it can pull Cedric Sparklesack). It doesn’t even have to follow the 4 week chest rule as my guild happened to pull The Widow Queen the week after her release week.

If you’re so far ahead of the end game curve that extra copies of new Legendaries don’t matter, I’m sure you don’t have to worry about Mythic purchasing power either making this topic completely pointless.

I redid the calculations and, surprisingly, got the same results.
The only difference is that I did a small mistake when counting event keys, now it’s slightly higher. LT’s power became slightly higher too, now it’s 5.39 better than gold chests (was 5.26).

Depends on what end game goals you have in mind. Some people want to mythic legendaries asap. Some people are satisfied with 1 copy (excluding cases when we need levels for kingdom stars).

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So we should average a mythic from every 129 LTs?

I’m very sure my guild gets way less! Man, that’s depressing …

Wait, something is wrong here. Table 3 is rolled first and it drops 0.5% Mythics, so it should be 200 LTs per a Mythic. I merged 9.5% Leg and 0.5% Myth into one 10% troop category, then divided number of troops by 20.

Either my calculations are a bit wrong, or Mythic drop rate is indeed slightly higher due to… err… shrug.

1 Like