The mention of “streaking” is relevant.
Ha ha, no, stop giggling. I’m a pony. It’s only lewd when we wear clothes.
What I mean is longer ago than I care to dig up, someone did some real math on the RNG and found two interesting things:
- Over many trials, it does represent a plausibly random distribution with expected probabilities.
- If you focus on smaller sets, it has more “runs” (which we’re calling “streaks” here) than is expected via probability.
- In particular, it is biased to “runs” of 2 or 3.
The context was the TDS resurrection trait. The gist is both the devs and the players were right about TDS: over the entire set of games played, TDS resurrected as much as the probability said. However, focusing on individual games, after seeing 1 TDS resurrection, it was more likely it would resurrect again than probability would indicate.
So I don’t find it questionable that other game events are subject to streaks.
What I do find questionable is: I’ve played a few hundred games as goblins. I only very rarely get to go 10 or 15 turns in a row. Fizzbang or Nobend always end up breaking the pattern and at the end of the day I have to do damage to win the match anyway. I never seem to have a “streaky” day.
But yesterday, every pet rescue I had was vs. Goblins. (That might be intentional, I suspect pet days pick from a small, daily-rotating pool rather than “all pets”, and it’s not unlikely the day’s pool can be all vs. Gobllins.) I had to retreat in the middle of Fizzbang/Nobend’s 14th free turn four times.
Ignoring the RNG and randomness: that should never, EVER happen. I don’t even want to play a game where I get 14 free turns. I want like, 3 followed by a big hit.
I want the game to cap the number of free turns you can get. I think somewhere after 5-6 free turns, the board should be shuffled such that there are no 4 or 5 matches, and 7 mana from each of your surviving troops should be drained and converted to bonus gold at the end of the match. I don’t give a flip if this hurts the Goblin meta. Nobody plays Goblins at the high-end except as a GW defense. The only reason it’s a good GW defense is this dumb probability it’ll get so many free turns. It’s not fun to play, it’s not fun to fight, it’s not fun.