This is very much an early work-in-progress but:
So far this only reflects data where just one dragon was crafted at a time, and does not include people crafting larger batches of eggs at once, or data where I can’t confirm when individual dragons were crafted. (Also keep in mind, this is from 600+ cumulative eggs so it’s not a good sample size until I can further annotate the data and refine my formula definitions.)
Personal drops (no gems spent on dragonite):
Emeraldrin x1 (?)
Garnetaerlin x1 (?)
Amethialas x1 (?)
Saphirax x1 (20.02.2023)
Four dragons, no duplicates. Lucky as always. 
I have just made my 5th dragon this morning. They are all topasarth. This definitely makes me wanna quit this game at this point. The likelihood of 5 of the same dragon being made in a row is so ridiculously low that it feels this is being done on purpose.
0,07%, if I got that right. So one in 1300 players will get 5 identical dragons in a row right from the start.
Does not sound that unlikely.
Damn that’s unlucky, but not as unlucky as one of my guildmates getting 6 Sapphirax in his first 6 eggs a few months ago before he finally got a different dragon on his 7th egg. Dragon targeting really should be a thing, and/or making it so that Dragons get taken out of the egg pool once you have 4 copies.
Thats real unlucky. There should be some kind of protection against that. Destiny has lockout protection for some of their loot tables so you dont repeatedly get the same thing over and over
Okay, here’s my current data:
There might have been an error with my summary table before because I had arranged the dragons in color-day order where literally everywhere else I arrange them alphabetically. That, at least, is fixed now. (And where are all those green dragons at?)
We do not have NEARLY enough confirmed crafting dates for a meaningful day-of-week analysis, but thanks to everyone who has shared so far. (Remember, if you want to help with this, don’t just note the order but record the exact dates too)
Factor in the number of other people inflicted with similar circumstances (that person isn’t the only one with 5+ in a row), and the number of players that have actually made 5+ dragons (which isn’t as many as you think considering the current active player count… )
Gems of War has always had a streaky RNG problem.
IdleOne: On the other hand, it is sort of telling, that this was the first forum post of the user. Would they have created an account and made a posting as well, if their drop pattern was one or two duplicates out of five draws? Possibly not. (Also if you include all users, who had a 5 duplicate streak at any point, the value becomes a lot higher - this number is just for 5 out of the first 5)
Outliers stick out much more (including my case mentioned above of non-duplicates), but the question for which this thread is made is, whether there is a specific drop pattern, favouring one distribution.
I also have detailed stats (logged every day) if needed. Let me know.
Are you by chance logging each craft date with that?
I’ll add the totals to my data regardless.
What’s your totals per color? You last posted having 7 dragons of 4 colors (2 purple 1 green 1 blue 3 yellow, missing only Brown and Red) so 4 more eggs leaves 2 eggs ambiguous.
Yes I did, I could send you the spreadsheet if you want it, not sure I can do this via the forum though.
I certainly don’t need the whole thing, you can just do like other people do and post a quick list of each egg number/color/craft date. (Maybe contain it in a [details] block if you want)
One of my hypotheses is if the color distribution is the same across different color days (because we assume it is) but this is much more difficult to document than overall totals.
Here you go
| Date | Day of the week | Egg Crafted |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-08-31 | Wednesday | Garnetaerlin |
| 2022-09-08 | Thursday | Topasarth |
| 2022-09-14 | Wednesday | Topasarth |
| 2022-09-22 | Thursday | Garnetaerlin |
| 2022-09-29 | Thursday | Amethialas |
| 2022-10-06 | Thursday | Topasarth |
| 2022-10-13 | Thursday | Amethialas |
| 2022-10-21 | Friday | Rubirath |
| 2022-10-25 | Tuesday | Sapphirax |
| 2022-11-01 | Tuesday | Garnetaerlin |
| 2022-11-08 | Tuesday | Garnetaerlin |
| 2022-11-15 | Tuesday | Sapphirax |
| 2022-11-21 | Monday | Topasarth |
| 2022-11-30 | Wednesday | Amethialas |
| 2022-12-05 | Monday | Rubirath |
| 2022-12-12 | Monday | Topasarth |
| 2022-12-17 | Saturday | Amethialas |
| 2022-12-24 | Saturday | Amethialas |
| 2023-01-01 | Sunday | Topasarth |
| 2023-01-05 | Thursday | Amethialas |
| 2023-01-08 | Sunday | Emeraldrin |
I pulled my 4th Gem Dragon Egg this morning. (It’s been a good week for Dragonite.)
I received Garnetaerlin for the 1st time.
Which colors? For the record.
1 purple, 4 green, 2 brown, 1 blue, 2 yellow duplicates.
I don’t recall what days of the week I forget the other 2 dragons I have, but after seeing your Thursday and Saturday results I decide to open the one egg I had and I got Amethialas like I hoped to. Thank you. Don’t know if that fits the sample size, but I’m glad it worked this time
