Gem Dragon Community Drop Rates

2 amethialases and 3 garnetaerlins

My drops started out with a Topasarth and Sapphirax, netiher of which was useful for any team I was planning to use, so given my next eggs dropped 2 Topasarths and another Sapphirax I just stopped wasting gems on buying dragonite.

Since then I got enough Dragonite Gnomes and perfect runs that I could craft 10 eggs, but I’m going to hold on because experience tells me that the true chance of getting any troop I do not already have is not random.

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How would players feel if there were two Soulforge options:

  1. Random Dragon Egg (current) – 500 Dragonite

  2. Unowned Dragon Egg (Lvl 1-6), with the price increasing the more unique dragons you already have

    • e.g. 500 Dragonite if you have 0 unique dragons (normal), 600 if you have 1, 750 if you have 2, 1000 if you have 3, 1500 if you have 4, 2150 if you have 5

    • This adds up to 6500 total Dragonite, the median expected Dragonite expenditure when crafting random Eggs as described here (where 13 Eggs x 500 = 6500 Dragonite):

This way, no one has to end up worse off than the average player, unless they want to test their luck and gamble at 500 a pop.

  • After all 6 have been crafted, the option then becomes either unavailable/greyed out, or lets you randomly craft one of the dragons you have the fewest copies of, again at a higher cost (not as high)

  • It could be implemented so that a small fee/premium is added to the total expenditure when crafting guaranteed dragons, e.g. 6500 + 10% = 7150 Dragonite, spread over the crafting levels

    • Or it could be acknowledged that the current system is frustrating, and just keep it at 6500

Fairest method to determine crafting costs

Could someone with good math skills distribute 6500 (or similar numbers) inversely proportionate to the remaining chance to craft a unique dragon at each level / Daisy’s distribution above? @Daisy ?

Let me know if that doesn’t make sense… I hope the idea is understood, i.e. similar to how the example numbers I gave above balloon towards the end.


N.B. It’s worth noting that if a Guild Guardian-style ‘duplicate protection’ was introduced (please), either alternatively or additionally (please the latter), where having x4 copies of a dragon would remove it from the drop pool, this would cap the number of Dragon Eggs required to guarantee 6 unique dragons at 21, or 10,500 Dragonite.

  • This protection would remove the need for my fiddly suggestion above of crafting “one of the dragons you have the fewest copies of, again at a higher cost (not as high)” once all 6 have been crafted.

  • Everyone wants this, regardless of anything else. Just do it.

The fact that this has been allowed to go on long enough for players to trend towards that “Very unlucky (bottom 1.5%)” category → i.e. have a Very Bad Player Experience is just shit.

I can only imagine enough Gems are still being spent on Dragonite that they just haven’t been willing to risk doing anything that might have an impact on that :thinking:.

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Too complicated, for players and for the devs, also likely to break in weird ways when the second set of dragons gets added to the pool. Should be some fixed cost, no matter what you already own.

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Ive had an Oeuf of eggs…

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4th Rubirath today. What a fun game this is :roll_eyes:.

I don’t remember when I hatched which dragon. First four hatches was different dragons though. Last missing two dragons was Amethialas and Emeraldrin.

I got at least one of each six dragons after nine eggos:
x1 Amethialas | x1 Emeraldrin | x1 Garnetaerlin | x2 Rubirath | x2 Sapphirax | x2 Topasarth

feels sad compared to so many people way more unlucky…

brb, I hef2go #playlotto

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You’re actually still within normal expectations and expenditure, there, at 11 Eggs – with ‘average luck’ coming out at 13 Eggs for all 6.

Not saying duplicates aren’t annoying…

Just posting for rhe statistics.

Still no Hoard Mimic though lol.

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x2 Amethialas | x1 Emeraldrin | x1 Garnetaerlin | x2 Rubirath |

Why? :frowning:
No comment

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If there was a Guild Guardian duplicate protection with a cap of x4 copies of each, you would have x2 copies of your 6th dragon by now :frowning: :frowning: (21 Dragons being the most anyone would need under that system, you have 22)

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Oh, especially annoying since a guildmate just posted that she has now got ALL the dragons, and ALL of the weapons !
In response another guildie mentioned they got all the dragons for 13 eggs.

Feels like victimisation !

I was also one if the suckers who chose dragons 1,2,3 daily for weeks until it was proven that it was rigged so that it was impossible to get 3 dragons that way.
(now fixed)

Having loyally played every day for 8+ years I truly am feeling very close to ending my run with this game due to this rng fiasco.

(count is now 24 eggs hatched)

Even adding the restriction that you can only get to a maximum of four of each dragons max per account would partially-solve much of the current problem some players are facing, at least it would make it way more fair and actually would have some fix math behind it all.
Let’s do the example of Skorpion’s pic:
Wouldn’t have gotten 1x Amethialas, 3x Emeraldrin, 2x Rubirath
Instead, even in the worst of all cases, would’ve filled up 2x Sapphirax, 2x Topasarth…
…and would’ve gotten 2x of the remaining dragon by now.
Also during all that time the %age droprate to maybe finally get the last needed dragon would’ve gotten higher and higher with each “failed” eggo, so the absolute worst case as mentioned would’ve been possible but also due to the math more and more unlikely.

I’m glad I personally didn’t really care for all of this overpriced crapfest. My perfect run success rate is at around 10% since the “fix” and I only randomly exchanged some gems->dragonite during the days. My first four opened eggos were all “new ones”, eggo five and six and eight failed. eggo seven and nine completed my set of the luck dragons.

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I think on top of reducing those worst case scenarios, it would at least remove the dread or uncertainty or despairing of, “Am I EVER going to get the last dragon???” as opposed to knowing that eventually, even if you’re not as lucky as other people, there will eventually be an end to it if you persevere.

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…proven where?

In order.

1x garnetaerlin
1x rubirath
1x amethialas

From there i got

3x garnetaerlin
1x emraldin
1x garnetaerlin
1x garnetaerlin
1x topasarth
1x topasarth

Totals

6x garnetaerlin
2x topasarth
1x rubirath
1x emraldin
1x amethialas

Suffice to say ive stopped buying dragonite, its ridiculous

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That makes you the first person I’ve seen mention they’re missing ONLY Sapphirax … most people seem to be missing Amethialas or Garnetaerlin.

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:grin: