Fix TDS once and for all!

[akots]

@Grundulum

Start tracking it. Every time you kill a TDS, mark whether it respawned. Additionally, keep track of how often you get 2x, 3x, etc. respawns. Come back with data from hundreds of properly tracked events and we will start to believe there might be something wrong.

What you’re doing now is not statistically sound, as has been pointed out. So it’s difficult to take this as anything more than frustrated ranting.

Well, I did that in a consistent statistically powerful and apparently correctly executed test some time ago and the result was that TDS resurrection is not random and independent events. This means that probability of each individual event may be close to 0.25 but cumulative probability of multiple events cannot be calculated simple my multiplication of these probabilities. So, for example, chance to resurrect twice in a row is not 0.25^2, maybe something else, IDK what. Also, since this is pRNG, the probabilities should be probably dynamically calculated. It is most likely related to theory of multidimensional Bayesian probability although not very clear exactly for me. It is also quite a complex case of multidimensional algebra.

Bayesian probability

There was some extensive discussion of GoW-related statistics and this post has also links to test results.

I call shenanigans

All probability calculations are based on assumptions that the events are random and independent. Specifically, resurrection of TDS is not random and independent. Hence, simple rules of probability calculations cannot be used to estimate the chance in this particular case. See other topics that discuss this issue extensively.

And while streak should normally happen in any type of random number sequence, since TDS resurrection is not random and independent, these streaks are not regular random streak but indeed something different. Seems like Sirrian does not know what it might be. This game is quite complex.