I have deleted this rant. This subject has been covered ad nauseum. I was over-reacting. Sorry, folks.
1 Like
Yeah, that’s just one battle. But I do wish respawn was either limited to once, or chance gets reduced each time.
Annoying in GW having a TDS respawn three times like it did to me today.
2 Likes
Oh dear. Streaky rng again.
1 Like
No need to have on caps lock…
3 Likes
The odds of a 25% event happening four times consecutively is (1/4)^4 = 1 in 256. I have seen it happen SIX times on four separate occasions – these are 1 in 4096. A guildmate reports he had it happen SEVEN times in a row…an amazing one in 16,384!!!
2 Likes
You know, many times a simple hint is all that is needed. Then a gentle push. Then maybe a notice. Eventually you get downright pissed off and you YELL!
And after two years plus of this stupidity, I am going to YELL!
at least your gob chomp didn’t miss 6x in a row…sigh
That bites too…the simple odds of that 50-50 event not happening six times consecutively is 1 in 64. But it pales in comparison to a 1 in 4096 or 1 in 16384 occurrence.
Still, having caps lock on wont make any difference…
2 Likes
it is 25% chance not once every four death. meaning that in 1 million TDS deaths, you get about 24-26% resurrections, some of which can trigger consecutively. it is no difference with 25% crit chance in other games, sometimes you get 5 straight crit in a row sometimes no crit in 15 hit.
YOU ARE VERY LOUD AND ALSO MISUNDERSTAND PROBABILITIES!!!
7 Likes
I think, though I can not prove, that their RNG algorithm is susceptible to streaks.
1 Like
An interesting idea – how could that be coded?
You apparently believe that “25% chance” means “respawn 1 in every 4”, so no, you misunderstand probability. Like…empirically.
Regarding streakiness: any random sequence will produce streaks. If a RNG sequence didn’t contain streaks then that would indicate that it’s been tampered with. I’m not saying that the game’s implementation is either ideal or unmodified - I obviously have no access to their code - but observing streakiness is, in general, what you would expect to see, and not inherently aberrant.
For what it’s worth, previous community experimentation has suggested that the game’s odds are both correct and slightly streakier than expected. Neither conclusion is rigorous or verified, though.
5 Likes
I think what you are saying is correct. I would argue that players experience far too many repeated respawnings to really be 25% over the long run.
Start tracking it. Every time you kill a TDS, mark whether it respawned. Additionally, keep track of how often you get 2x, 3x, etc. respawns. Come back with data from hundreds of properly tracked events and we will start to believe there might be something wrong.
What you’re doing now is not statistically sound, as has been pointed out. So it’s difficult to take this as anything more than frustrated ranting.
6 Likes
I understand what you are saying. You are very clear.
It appears that the counter-argument states that over the long haul, over the millions of occurrences, streaks of four, five, six, seven, even twenty-seven 25% events taking place is possible. I have to agree.
That being said, what can one say about the chances a TDS will respawn four times consecutively? How would you calculate such a probability?
The experience that I and many of my fellow players have had is that such streakiness happens far too often. Every time I fight a TDS I make a mental note and know that such streaks occur far too often for the stated 25%. Evidently some players experience less, but for me and my associates, it happens too often.
Respawn% = Respawn% * .5 on every respawn? I like to stay language neutral, but it would be fun in LISP.
Never mind, I’m drunk and I hate recursion.
1 Like
Sounds reasonable. Another player suggested something similar in Discord.
@grundulum is right. We aren’t getting posts in CAPITALS from all the other players who aren’t getting long resurrection 25% streaks…