Bored spreadsheet corner

With all the commotion about pending update, it may have slipped our minds that it will soon (next week) be a year since chaos orbs were reworked in 6.7 patch.

To celebrate this festive occasion, here are about a yearsworth of opened orbs (might’ve been more but I’m mostly lazy in using vault keys)

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Within the same update fan favorite most valuable unit of Dragonite Gnome was also added. I must say it has really been a blast!

Speaking of overall gnomes…I was too dumb, as you can plainly see, to start counting all gnomes at game 1 - so I just omit one Dragonite Gnome from my big nice and pretty gnome chart to sort of compensate for my slip-up.
dragonite2

Capture

Yeah, yeah, the usual caveat that I’ve repeated in a few times in the past about Pet Gnomes sort of messing up the thing, but I’m not interested in double bookkeeping (for PvP/non-PvP), and it doesn’t really change the ballpark so…sue me if it makes you feel better.

Anyhow, I’ll probably drop in a thing or two from my spreadsheets here from time to time when I feel like it.

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Amazing data collection! Very interesting to see this, thank you for posting it!

And a slightly painful reminder that I have yet to get a single Major Orb of Forging. Ever.

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thanks for the data, always love it!

To celebrate PvP rework and uncertainty how my style of vault weekend pet rescue hunting pans out, let’s share pet drops from rescues (March 8, 2021 until December 13, 2023).

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Since there was something mentioned about vault key contents in another thread, here comes about 7800 keys (normal + epic), if anybody feels like sifting through and analyzing because, allegedly, keys have been nerfed, I hear.

Recording (OpenOffice spreadsheet) starts at the introduction of vault battle difficulty selector - all battles done on hard - while actual key opening dates begin somewhere in September of 2022.

Normal keys go in plain black text, epic keys go in bold pink; (for easier overview of epic in particular you’ll probably have to manually copy then into another spreadsheet tab because I was too lazy).

Chaos orbs go by their kind (minor/major or minor/normal/major in case of glory orb) so you’d have to sum them for drop rate (as Cedric drops orb of chaos and not, for example, orb of growth specifically);
Card drops also go by name - for droprate one would have to count and sum individual entries into categories of Common/Verse Gnome/Cedric/Tarot card.

That’s about it, I suppose.

This here link will go inactive after 30 days

This link should not expire, but it’s not a well known international file hosting service

4 Likes

Wow! That’s an incredible amount of data.

Let’s celebrate a little - 2-token and 3-token chests have caught up with each other!
Funnily enough, the previous time it happened was about exactly a year ago - January 1, 2023…I’m curious what will happen now because last time 2-token chests went to +70 within a week and then it took entire year to break even again (including +100 high (or better: -100 low for 3-token chests) for 2-token chests) somewhere in the middle.
Of course, the result is what it is thanks to 3-token Hoard Mimic chests as without them smaller ones would still be ahead.

For clarity,
Actual chests are the times I encountered Mimic/Hoard Mimic chests and
Virtual chests are extra lines I added for those chests (1 duplicate line for Mimic chest/4 duplicate lines for Hoard Mimic chest).

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After getting that elusive 6th cosmic dragon
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in 29 eggs, if my counting skills aren’t deceiving me, and a lot of fun at cursing the person(s) deliberately and knowingly doing the stuff the way the stuff is implemented (because inanimate random is not something I’d direct my frustration against), here are some daily dungeon tidbits

First, opening order was 123456 for all days (I thought of switching it sometime, maybe at 365 or whatever significant number done, but ultimately was too lazy to do so);
Second, 54 perfect runs during said time period of 481 recorded days (but there were 2 non-perfect days that I forgot to record so only 479 data entries, remembered right after next daily reset);
Third…

Battle combination Times Percentage of total Difference from ideal distribution
123 28 5,85 0,85
124 18 3,76 -1,24
125 25 5,22 0,22
126 26 5,43 0,43
134 28 5,85 0,85
135 20 4,18 -0,82
136 27 5,64 0,64
145 35 7,31 2,31
146 21 4,38 -0,62
156 17 3,55 -1,45
234 29 6,05 1,05
235 34 7,10 2,10
236 18 3,76 -1,24
245 19 3,97 -1,03
246 26 5,43 0,43
256 24 5,01 0,01
345 26 5,43 0,43
346 25 5,22 0,22
356 19 3,97 -1,03
456 14 2,92 -2,08

image

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Let’s suppose you’re pretty sure how mythic points work.

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I’ve been opening only glory chests/glory for chests since the tracking begun.
Also, chests only opened on new mythic release (and I don’t care for getting 4x copies for some dubious bragging rights - when I get one copy, I stop chasing.)

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One hundred thousand gnome eligible games (outside of vault event) done since the introduction of Dragonite Gnome and I think I’ll put this little endeavor to rest for the time being.

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With these one-player’s numbers, feel free to ponder what is the contribution of Dragonite Gnome in the overall dragonite picture.
image

9 Likes

Great work @Dust_Angel :star2:

If the devs were half as committed as you are, we wouldn’t have so many problems…

I thought something was going on with dragonite gnomes not dropping that much dragonite. 45/65 dragonite gnomes dropping 40 or less dragonite confirms my assumptions.

The range of dragonite is supposed to be 20-100, but the data that you have collected says otherwise…:face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

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Very heavily weighted on the lower end. What a shame.

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So…the always broken 90%-or-whatnot-else Infernal King resurrection…

In pet rescues…

Summary
#1 D
#2 D
#3 D
#4 D
#5 R R R R D
#6 D
#7 D
#8 D
#9 D
#10 D
#11 R D
#12 D
#13 R R R D
#14 D
#15 R D
#16 D
#17 D
#18 D
#19 R R D
#20 R D
#21 D
#22 D
#23 D
#24 D
#25 D
#26 R D
#27 D
#28 D
#29 R R D
#30 D
#31 D
#32 D
#33 D
#34 R D
#35 R D
#36 D
#37 D
#38 R D
#39 D
#40 D
#41 D
#42 D
#43 D
#44 D
#45 R D
#46 D
#47 D
#48 D
#49 D
#50 D
#51 D
#52 R D
#53 R D
#54 D
#55 D
#56 D
#57 D
#58 D
#59 D
#60 D
#61 D
#62 D
#63 R D
#64 D
#65 R D
#66 D
#67 R R D
#68 D
#69 D
#70 D
#71 D
#72 D
#73 D
#74 R D
#75 D
#76 D
#77 D
#78 D
#79 D
#80 D
#81 D
#82 R D
#83 R D
#84 R D
#85 D
#86 R D
#87 D
#88 R D
#89 D
#90 R R D
#91 D
#92 D
#93 D
#94 D
#95 D
#96 D
#97 D
#98 R D
#99 D
#100 D
#101 D
#102 R D
#103 D
#104 D
#105 D
#106 D
#107 D
#108 D
#109 D
#110 D
#111 D
#112 D
#113 R D
#114 D
#115 D
#116 D
#117 D
#118 D
#119 D
#120 D
#121 D
#122 D
#123 D
#124 R D
#125 D
#126 D
#127 D
#128 R D
#129 R R D
#130 D
#131 R D
#132 D
#133 D
#134 R D
#135 D
#136 D
#137 D
#138 D
#139 D
#140 D
#141 R D
#142 R D
#143 D
#144 R D
#145 D
#146 D
#147 R R D
#148 D
#149 D
#150 D
#151 D
#152 D
#153 R R R R D
#154 D
#155 D
#156 D
#157 D
#158 R D
#159 R D
#160 R D
#161 R D
#162 D
#163 D
#164 D
#165 R R D
#166 R D
#167 R D
#168 D
#169 D
#170 D
#171 R D
#172 D
#173 D
#174 R D
#175 D
#176 R D
#177 D
#178 R D
#179 D
#180 D
#181 D
#182 D
#183 D
#184 R D
#185 R D
#186 D
#187 D
#188 D
#189 D

…for a total summary of

In explore…

Summary
#1 R D
#2 D
#3 R D
#4 D
#5 D
#6 R D
#7 R D
#8 D
#9 D
#10 D
#11 D
#12 D
#13 R R D
#14 D
#15 D
#16 D
#17 D
#18 R D
#19 R D
#20 D
#21 R D
#22 D
#23 D
#24 D
#25 D
#26 D
#27 D
#28 R D
#29 D
#30 D
#31 D
#32 D
#33 R D
#34 D
#35 D
#36 D
#37 D
#38 D
#39 D
#40 D
#41 D
#42 R D
#43 R R D
#44 D
#45 D
#46 D
#47 D
#48 D
#49 D
#50 D
#51 D
#52 D
#53 D
#54 D
#55 D
#56 R D
#57 D
#58 D
#59 R D
#60 D
#61 R D
#62 R D
#63 D
#64 R D
#65 R D
#66 D
#67 D
#68 D
#69 D
#70 R D
#71 D
#72 R D
#73 D
#74 D
#75 D
#76 D
#77 R D
#78 D
#79 D
#80 D
#81 D
#82 D
#83 D
#84 D
#85 D
#86 R D
#87 D
#88 D
#89 D
#90 D
#91 R D
#92 D
#93 R R R D
#94 R R D
#95 D
#96 R D
#97 D
#98 D
#99 D
#100 D

…for a summary of

I’m disappointed - it’s way too close to the stated resurrection chance of 25%! Where is the “it resurrects all the time!” I keep hearing of all the time?

3 Likes

That’s because the infernal king will resurrect 3 times in a row right when you get off work.
Or when you need to go pee really bad.
Or when your soup is burning on the oven.
Or when you when the baby is crying.

People tend to remember the really good or really bad times with this game, and when I was first starting out, I remember needing the Whelp dragon pet. That’s when King Buttcrap decided to revive 3 times in a row for the final battle. The timer ran out, I didn’t get the pet dragon and was quite upset for awhile.

I understand that horrible experience was an outlier, but that is a bad memory from when I was struggling to get anything accomplished in this game. When I gather enough data, everything evens out, but memories are a mystery we will never solve.

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Can we put this on a billboard somewhere? :joy:

Jokes aside, this is the first time I’ve seen this particular community theory put to the test. Good on you for getting the real data!

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I was, of course, being sarcastic. It might not be a good quality, I know, but at times I do have quite short patience for rather textbook cases of - what’s that thing was named? - recall bias being presented as truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Ancient Horrors - I’ve counted them. Giant Spiders - I’ve counted them. Bandits - I’ve counted them. Not once anything suspicious in the final outcome (and thus it was fairly certain Infernal King wouldn’t stir up anything suspicious either).

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Bookmarking this so I can pull it out when the next person inevitably claims a broken respawn rate :joy:

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I appreciate your raw data, @Dust_Angel. It’s just that trying to turn memories into scientific data is…troubling. I’m sure that if I fought the infernal king 99 more times, he wouldn’t resurrect 3 times in a row.:rofl:

But this game can feel so punishing at the worst possible moments for no reason at all. I used to go for a long win streak in pvp, but I don’t bother with that nonsense anymore. Heroic gems being added along with everything else has added too many variables that can really mess up your results. I’ve found that an archer or sunspear hero class can deal with bone storms from Diamantina quite reliably, but then there are outliers where that pesky dragon gets an extra turn even with a ~20% chance 2 times in a row. Not out of the realm of possibility, but very annoying when it happens.

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You shouldn’t have to wait long - vault weekend starts tomorrow :wink:

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Since I won’t be able to open more burning chests (normal, don’t care about the epic ones) this PvP season, let’s share some mid-term summary and look at it once again when next PvP season comes around.

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