I had a slightly different estimate for the first number, but it does depend largely on when you get your orbs of growth, so I’m fine with that. With average luck, I’m estimating you’d be closer to the two and a half year mark, and that is assuming equal distribution, and it could still be much much worse than that, but below 2 years without a top 6 leaderboard reward is in the realm of possibility with extremely good luck.
However, if you don’t get any raw major orbs of chaos, the numbers for getting Zuul’Goth are much, much worse, to the point of pretty much being impossible, hence my earlier statement that this is entirely a resource trap.
If all orbs types are equally weighted, you are hard bottlenecked at getting enough major orbs of growth. Therefore, if you are stopping just short of that final event prize every week, are not on the leaderboard top 6, and only get regular orbs, it would take you much longer. For the bottleneck alone, you’d need 4 (assuming 1 in 4 drop rate) * 20 (to craft 1 major growth) * 3 (3 greater required for a single orb of power) * 8 (orbs of power required to craft) regular orbs chaos drops required to craft zuul’goth, which, at 9 regular chaos orbs (4 for stage 11 invasion, 4 for portal 9 raid, 1 for inner fortress personal reward) given every 3 weeks would take 640 weeks, or 12.3 years to clear your bottleneck (by this point, you’d have way more than enough of the other orbs unless you used too many). Even assuming Orbs of Growth are weighted 5 to 1 to 1 to 1 (and not seeing this ATM, really, but this would be peak optimal distribution toward getting zuul’goth besides clans being a thing that exists), you would still need a total on average of 32 (total amount of orbs needed to see 4 wisdom, 4 ascension, and 20 growth, and the 4 unused clans to fill out the drop tables to get one greater of each) * 3 (of each greater required for an orb of power) * 8 (orbs of power required for zuul’goth), which, again, at 9 orbs every 3 week weeks would equate to 256 weeks, or 4.9 years, and thats a best case scenario on drop rates and distribution.
The only way you’d close to 4 years is with perfectly optimal distribution with zero orbs of clans dropping, which would be 224 weeks, still 4.3 years. You would only be able to influence this very slightly with an absurd amount of grinding during vault events, unless Bounty has a completely broken reward structure enough to overshadow guild events. Another one or two regular orbs per month on the event and extreme luck might get you to within four years, which, I should remind everyone is longer than the game existed by six months and the total sum of which is longer than the life cycle of most games of this type, period.
Basically, if you don’t get raw majors orbs of chaos every week, Zuul’Goth is not realistically possible in the first place, and given each orb has less function than the sum of its parts, not worth doing.
tl;dr: Everything on this crafting tab is a resource trap.
