Thing is, only a small portion of players that installed game, are actively playing (and Steam statistics count all those players for total %). From that part, only a small percentage visits forums and from that group yet another small portion of players are posting on forums.
If anything, a group of 400 active forum members might produce any statisticaly-usefull data, after few weeks/months… not a single vault weekend.
From my point of view - congratulate these who were lucky and got their epic key and keep calm and wait next few weeks to see, if you get any. If you want - you can collect your data on the way and contribute to some player- shared statistics.
if something has a 1% chance to occur, sometimes it takes more than 200 to see it once… and sometimes you can see 3 of such things appear in like 10 tries, and than nothing for another 500 tries…
heck, even if coin has a 50% chance to flip one side or another, you still aren’t assured, it wont flip same side many times in a row… you probably would have to toss a coin more than 50 times, to see these percents near 50, and still it would probably be skewed… one way or another
The class goes insane in astonishment and he asks the question. How much evidence do you need to start doubting that actually am not using a normal deck of cards? As he shows us the rest of the deck which consist of only red cards.
This is the same person that thought 2 vip keys was generous compensation for a mythic being taken away. That fact that the majority of guilds didn’t get a single key is just bad luck guys. Case closed.
I know this wasn’t directed at me, but it’s come up a bit, so I thought I’d give two cents.
Since the Epic Vault Keys (EVK) aren’t supposed to affect the drop rate of regular Vault Keys (VK), if 10% of the time an EVK dropped instead of a VK, that would render this first statement untrue.
Reading it again now, I can see how many people might have thought that “Vault Key drop rates have not been affected…” referred to the general class of item, including the new Epic Vault Keys, and was said to assure people that adding something good wouldn’t result in a drop rate rebalance.
I’m actually starting to doubt myself a bit, now…
My understanding, although admittedly I don’t think the wording was super clear (as has been mentioned – I think it could easily be misinterpreted as ‘10% rarer’ i.e. 90% of the change of a regular VK), was that the chance for EVKs was in addition to regular VKs, and it was 10% as likely as them – so if VKs previously had a 1% chance to drop, we would now have a 1.1% chance to receive either a VK or EVK – with EVKs therefore making up 9.1% of all ‘Vault Keys’, inclusive of both types.
Note of course that the ‘1 in 11’ or ‘9.1%’ scenario is the better one, since it takes up a bigger portion of the Gnome pie (i.e. ‘1.1%’ of rewards, hypothetically, instead of just ‘1%’).
I had one single Infernal King resurrect (25% chance on kill) 7 times yesterday in a pet battle!
0.25^7 = 0,00006103515625 which is a probability of 1 in 16.384. Crazy. But hey, people are hitting casino jackpots too and many of those are waaaay rarer than that. It just smacks you in the face when it happens plus there’s always a huge fuzz around those kind of events which magnifies them, especially the negative experiences. It’s how our brain works and people like to complain about it (including myself).
We just need to try and be realistic enough to also realise the positive ones, like for example getting 5 pets gnomes in a few hours of PvP or having 10 blue orbs in a month. We tend to ignore that and especially not make a fuzz around it. I learned that and it makes those negative ones much easier to consume.
More on topic: I had 1 Epic Vault Key out of 20ish Vault Keys.
That’s also true, I didn’t think of it from this POV. Although in either scenario, an average of just less than 1% of drops in a sample size of over 300 vault keys with no counter evidence of bad luck just from my dataset is still outside the zone of plausibility for me.
May need to clarify I’m not annoyed by the lack of EVKs, I still enjoyed farming in the vault key weekend without getting any. But as quoted below, someone left the community managers out to dry with the 10% number.
Just popping in to let you know that we ran tests as well as checked the code. I have been speaking to the team further and requested that we run another set of simulated drops just in case.
As far as we can see, from checking the code and the tests we have already run, they are dropping as intended. As many people have mentioned earlier, there is also a strong bias towards RNG, and the evidence in this thread is purely anecdotal.
Thank you for following up on this! Sorry for the unwarranted negativity by some people in these threads; most of us really just wanted to know if it was working.
If the code isn’t changed, one thing that might head off future frustration is making some gnome tracker levels reward epic keys. Maybe the 25 and 50 levels. I played pretty obsessively last weekend and barely broke 50 (hundreds of gnomes), so it wouldn’t affect net rewards very much but would let people try out the exciting new thing.
Perhaps this can be solved with a few simple question:
Did the rate quoted in the original post of 10% apply to during a gnome event weekend or not? Does the rate of Epic Vault Keys during a vault event weekend increase at a rate proportional to the increase of normal vault key drops?
I noticed every response so far has said “as intended” while conspicuously withholding exactly how much “intended” is. You already gave out a rate with the patch notes, even though it is thrown out as a rough number that is in proportion to another number that was never officially stated, it is that ratio that does not align with data (which is why there are claims of it being “wrong” rather than just “too rare”), being off by a large rate on the relative scale over a large number of samples.
Which is far less anecdotal than people throwing around “I got one” versus “I didn’t” in this thread. Can provide math if necessary.
The epic vault key rate not being increased by a vault weekend modifier actually sounds pretty believable, and would explain why the tests aren’t picking up on the problem - if there’s a problem. Vault keys are extraordinarily rare outside of a vault weekend, so epic keys would be too.
They simply need to check the total # of vault keys dropped for everyone during the weekend and the total # of epic vault keys. It should look something close to 10:1 if the 10% rate in the patch notes is to be believed. I’m convinced it’s far closer to 100:1 or only 1%.