Include all bonuses.
Theoretically I don’t think there’s a cap - you can have pretty much any mastery bonus from the guild, it just costs very much. Realistically a bit above 160 from levels (at lvl 1000, if you advanced all masteries equally) + 40 from Kingdoms right now + 100-150 (?) from guild - around 300-350 perhaps.
On the other hand if you ask about mana surge chance - there is a cap. 70% right now AFAIR. But you can’t get there (to this 70% I mean), you can just get very close.
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If I’m not mistaken, I remember Mr. Sammy (lvl 1000, top Steam / mobile Guild) was at 61-62% mana surge chances for every mana color (months ago).
He had something like 3 times my masteries and I have a bit over 50% chances for my mana surges myself…
Then again, that would leave him almost unarmed by the jinx trait while I’d loose probably around 15% surge chances (jinx cut masteries in half, not surge chances according to its description text)
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The mastery % is not linear, they apply the mastery points to a logarithmic curve. The theoretical limit is close to 100%, if you can get at least 100M mastery points. The practical limit for the points available in the game is about 2/3, i.e. 67%.
I think the max is 60% now. I’m at 58% but my fellow guild mates that are level 1000 say that theirs is 60%
I am at 61%
I stand corrected then, it’s 61% 
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Well, it goes up really slowly. If you look at the graph, at 200 Mastery you have over 55%, but to go above 60% you need almost 300 Mastery. And at 1000 you’d still be considerably below 70% (at 68.74% exactly) - so I guess they haven’t changed it. Although only devs can confirm or deny it for sure
lvl 774 here, and masteries are in the 170 to 200 range, and at 53% to 55%. hope that helps.
It would be interesting to know the absolute max mana surge % that one could possibly get.
using math (lim m-> infinity) – you get .73 or 73%. Love that math
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The realistic “max” anyone can have in this game is 69%. The amount of masteries needed to get even 1% above that is in the thousands.
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Using my math methods which are rather bad i came to a result that maximum mana surge chance can go up to 234,07% giving triple mana and an extra turn on 3 gems match. My methods may be bad, but the results are awesome!
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Your optimism is admirable.
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The Also you forgot to use a logarithm
I had asked about this topic myself in that thread @GemsCollector posted. The graph they show shows a sharp rise at the beginning but then it levels off after about a numerical value of 60 to 70 (not the percentage). Mine are all at 97 - 98 and my percentages are 54 to 56%. Once you hit a certain value the diminishing returns law kicks in and there isn’t much improvement.
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