Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, elit eget consectetuer adipiscing aenean dolor

What are the odds of this

i had 3 vault keys and each time i got an orb of chaos for cedrick and each time it was an orb of ascension. so that’s 3 blue orbs in a row from an orb of chaos what are the odds of that happening

2 Likes

Those are really nice pulls. For this weekend’s bounty I did not pull any ascension orbs. Rng is a mother. Then at like 3 in the morning I used some vault keys (3 I think) and I got a major orb of ascension.

Great pulls for you though. I’m glad at least one of us is getting good orbs consistently.

After finally crafting Zuul’Goth, for the next 10 or 12 Orbs, I didn’t get a single Ascension!

Ain’t RNG fun…

It’s the odds of drawing an ascension orb to the power of 3.
So if the chance of getting an ascension is 20% it’s 20%*20%*20%=0.8% or 8 in 1000 or 1 in 125.
If someone can provide the correct odds the math is easy.

Getting a Minor Orb of Ascension from Cedric happens approximately 1.8% of the time. Interestingly, getting a Major Orb of Ascension happens approximately 1.4% of the time, not that far off! There’s ~22% chance to get Minor Orb and ~19% chance to get a Major Orb, then ~9% and ~8% for those orbs to be Ascension.

My initial formula was incorrect depending on how you interpret the question.
If the first orb is a given and you wonder what the odds are that this turns into 3 in a row, with ices odds it would be 0.0324% or 1 in 3086
If you interpret it as: what are the odds that my next 3 drops are minor ascension orbs (using ices odds) it becomes 0.0005832% or 1 in 171468.

Gaaaaah probabilities!