Even if the drop rate is terrible, the most dedicated GaP farmers will have the keys to do it (If it takes 800 VK equivalents the stash will be there), the 4 hours of whiffing would be painful though.
2-3 months hard cap is seriously strict, imagine campaign rewards being gated until the end of the following campaign if you didn’t buy. If I picked up another game I wouldn’t think I would be still playing it after 2 months.
So yet more money to stay caught up. My opinion is you have to buy both passes or neither. If you are going to get behind anyway I can’t see why you would buy one or the other. Sad the way this game is going. New kingdoms used to be fun. Now it’s going to be go get your wallet. The opposite of fun.
Crazy idea, I know, but maybe if the devs delivered items as advertised cough Arachnean Weaver cough they would make more money.
I have spent way too much money on another mobile game this past month. I can’t spend on GoW when I can’t trust I will get what I paid for. That means I won’t buy these passes.
Even the most dedicated farmers will soon no longer be able to have the keys. The drop pool gets diluted with every tarot card added, making it progressively harder to obtain the one you are looking for. In a year from now you’ll likely need several thousand vault keys for a reasonable chance to pull the latest one added.
This remains to be seen.
What remains to be seen there? The major arcana - which the cards we’re getting are from - are 22.
With at least 90% of the dropped legendary cards being Cedric, it will become increasingly hard.
Of course they could grow a heart for players and stop us from getting more of a card from the vault if we have 4 of them at mythic - like the guild guardians - but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
It remains to be seen that the drop pool is indeed diluted with every new tarot added, which the quote asserts. An alternative mechanism might be to introduce new tarots with a fixed, low, drop rate.
It is certainly plausible that the drop pool will be diluted, but I have not seen any evidence—and certainly not any conclusive evidence—for the claim.
Considering that every other of their documented drop pools work this way it’s next to guaranteed though. Besides, the alternative mechanism would require extra manual configuration. The fixed, low drop rate of the tarot card would have to be taken away from somewhere else, in exactly the right amount, every time a new one is added to the pool. I just can’t picture Infinity Plus Two volunteering for extra effort, and then even pulling it off flawlessly the past few tarot cards.
@Hawx and @gary_dils have a google sheet tracking Vault Key drop rates.
Perhaps they might be able to give you the evidence?
Hard to track whether subsequent tarots are harder to get than previous ones, but 
All the data is entered by date and there are hundreds of samples, so. Probably not impossible to track the relative rates.
Unfortunately it’s currently not even close to enough samples to get a high enough confidence rate either one way or the other.
I might be missing something here… But on mythic Friday, only one mythic is avaliable so the chances to get exactly that mythic if you pull any is 100, right?
Now if you have 2 different ones, it’s 50/50? 3 is 33,33% percent chance that the mythic you pull is the one you want…
Right?
I’m not a math person but I thought that was how it worked.
The more you add, the lower the chance for a specific one.
Unless the specific one had a higher chances for some reason, like the first 2 weeks after being added to the vault, the new Tarot Card will be 100% (or something) chance if you pull any.
I agree that your assertion is plausible. In light of the miscommunication issues that have plagued this game lately, however, I think it’s important to distinguish between what the data suggests, what is assumed, and what we are told.
I’ve actually analyzed this data already. Unfortunately, the data does not provide adequate resolution to resolve this issue as yet, and there is not enough data from a second period in time for a comparative analysis. We should be able to resolve the issue after both Star and Devil are released in Vault given enough data at that point in time.
It has to be diluted chances after each tarot is added to the pool. Otherwise with a 1% chance after we have 100 tarots we will pull nothing else?
Except that I’m sure Qoob would point out that there will only ever be 22 tarots, if the devs are to follow the real-world deck (as all precedent suggests).
there’s nothing really stopping them from Zodiacs next
and their precedents is to not balance things evenly. see # of brown kingdoms, see release schedule of brown factions, see color distribution of skull converters, see bounty troop color distribution, see extra raid/invasion troops etc
I’m more surprised when something is followed exactly
I suppose you’re right that by “all precedent” I meant in this context 
Meaning — if Tarots were 1%, after all 22 they’d only be 22%, rather than ever climbing to the suggested 100%.
That said, I disagree with Qoob that we don’t have the evidence that tarots do not have a flat percent in the drop table, because as four points out that’s not how the other drop tables work and having to manually configure them all the time would be a nightmare, but