I’m getting Ghulvania ready for power level 25, which includes upgrading 10 troops to Elite Level Silver. For some troops, I figure why stop at Silver, and just upgrade them to Gold. So I was upgrading Avina. She’s an Epic troop.

To upgrade an Epic troop to Bronze, it requires a minimum of 3 Cedrics for 100%, or 1 Aranaea. To go from Bronze to Silver, it requires 2 Aranaea (50% each). To go from Silver to Gold, it requires 3 Aranaea (33.333…% each).

But sometimes I like to gamble. So when going from Silver to Gold, I used 2 epic medals (in this case Medal of Seasons), and 1 Rare (Medal of Orpheus). That gave me a 77.78% chance. And it failed. So I did it again. And it failed again.

Finally the third attempt succeeded. I just used 6 Medal of Seasons and 3 Medal of Orpheus. If I had known it would have failed twice, I would have just used 3 Medal of Seasons from the start. My god. But who expects a 77% chance to fail twice in a row?!

77% chance to succeed means 23% chance to fail… 0.23*0.23 for two successive times give about 0.05 - so 1 out of 20 should fail, right?
If one is swimming in medals, then why not?, but I’m not yet at that point, so I find such failure chance too high and wouldn’t gamble.

This is one of the reasons I decided not to gamble with medals anymore. Due to my farming practices, I also no longer need to (have a lot of all medals), but still…

I dont gamble either. The number of times that irongut fails to devour on consecutive 80%+ probability is staggering. I save myself the grief of inevitable disappointment. But lets be honest; higher tokens are way too scarce as it is, and the grind overall in explore is ludicrous. I know my kingdoms will soon hit a major roadblock where medalling is concerned and I am cool with that. For me its just not worth the tedium.

The probabilities are independent of each other, so it’s much higher: 1 out of 4.3 will fail. The odds of the second one failing or succeeding aren’t dependent or influenced by the previous attempts.