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The Data Behind Vault Keys

Today’s Easter Flash Offer is 750 Gems and 8 Vault Keys for $15. That’s 50 gems per $1, which is the highest the game ever offers (unless maybe you’re at VIP 20 and they have an additional bonus, then maybe the $100 would be higher, but I can’t verify that).

So already the 50 gems per $1 is a pretty good deal, but you’ll also get the 8 vault keys, which is .53 keys per dollar. The normal offers on Vault weekends are 0.5 keys per dollar (100 gems and a vault key for $2 with 8 in stock, so you’re getting the same deal here except it costs $1 less but you have to buy all 8 at once).

The highest vault key offer they’ve done is 50 gems and 3 vault keys for $2, 5 in stock, which is only 25 gems per $1, but 1.5 vault keys per $1, which is 3x higher than other offers. But what exactly is a vault key worth?

I just so happen to have recorded my own rewards from 276 vault runs. That’s 828 gnomes and 276 Cedrics that I’ve killed. And the first thing I want to make clear is that vault difficulty does not affect rewards from gnomes and cedric at all. Always run it on the easiest. On to the data…

Gold

Out of 828 gnomes killed, gold was a reward 286 times, or 34.5%. The possible amounts you can get are 2.5k, 4k, 6k, 10k, 20k, 30k, and 50k. The most common reward is 2500 48% of the time, then 29% for $4k, and it drops down from there. ~75% of the time when gold drops from a gnome, it will be between 2.5k and 4k. I say 75% even though 48 and 29 are 77% because these numbers are clearly not perfect, I would need thousands more runs to get an accurate number.

Overall though, from a single gnome, your chances of seeing 2500 gold is ~17%, 10% for 4000 gold, 3% for 6k, 2% for 10k, 2% for 20k, 1% for 30k, and 0.5% for 50k.

Cedric can only drop 60k gold. Out of 276 kills, he’s dropped gold 24 times for me. That’s 8.7%. And in a single vault run, your chances of seeing at least one gold reward from any of the gnomes is around 70%.

Gems

Gems come in two tiers from gnomes: 5 and 20, and two from cedric: 100 and 250. Gems dropped from at least one gnome 34% of the time. Overall, your chances of getting a gem reward from any gnome is ~12%. Of that, 90% of the time it’s going to be 5 gems, and the other 10% it will be 20 gems.

From Cedric, gems drop about 5% of the time. 70% of those drops will be 100 gems, and 30% will be 250 gems. Your odds of getting 250 gems from Cedric are around 1.5%, and around 3.5% for 100 gems.

Gem Keys

Gem Keys come in either 1 or 4 amounts from gnomes and 20 from Cedric. You’ll see at least 1 gem key about 12% of runs. Around 5.7% of gnome rewards will be 1 gem key, and 3.7% will be 4 gem keys. From Cedric you’ll get 20 gem keys around 3.3% of the time.

Event Keys

Event Keys come in 1 and 3, and 15 from Cedric, and in a direct flip of gem keys, you’re actually more likely to get 3 event keys (61% of the time when event keys drop from a gnome) than you are 1 event key (39%), vs gem keys (60^ of the time it’s 1 key and 40% 4 keys). Odds of seeing at least one event key reward from any run is about 11%, slightly less than gem keys. From Cedric it’s around 4%.

Vault Keys

Yes, you can get vault keys from the gnomes. It’s pretty rare though. Out of the 828 gnomes I’ve killed, I’ve only gotten 5 vault keys. That’s 0.6% of the rewards. However, your odds of seeing at least 1 vault key is slightly higher (because there are 3 gnomes per vault key), bumping my actual chances of seeing at least one vault key reward to 1.81% of my runs (5 keys divided by 276 runs). Cedric does not drop Vault Keys, FYI.

Diamonds

You’ll see at least one diamond reward 24% of the time. Diamonds drop in amounts of 2 or 5. 70% of the time it will be 2, 30% 5. Cedric also drops Diamonds, around 3.6% chance, and he only drops 50 diamonds at a time.

Other Rewards

You can get Souls, Minor Traitstones, and Celestial Traitstones. You’ll see Souls as a reward about 43% of the time, minor traitstones around 27%, and celestial traitstones around 3%. Also, don’t try to add up those amounts and get 100%, because you won’t get it. These are the odds of seeing at least one gnome drop that reward. There are three gnomes, so the chances of seeing a specific reward at least once and adding them all together won’t give you 100%. So while your chances of getting at minor traitstones as a reward is indeed 27%, the actual overall percentage for minor traitstones is 9.4%. That means in 276 runs, minor traitstones showed up in 74 of them. But there are 828 gnomes across those 276 runs, and the total number of minor traitstone rewards was only 78. Yes, that does mean unfortunately that in some runs, I got double minor traitstones. Bad times.

Celestial traitstones are pretty rare, around 1% of all rewards, but they come in a pack of 3.

Cedric can’t drop Minor or Celestial traitstones, but he can drop Souls. However, it’s pretty rare, around 3% of the time, and it comes in a reward of 2500.

Minor and Major Orbs

These only drop from Cedric. Your chances of getting a Minor Orb from Cedric is around 22%, and around 19% for a Major Orb.

When a minor orb drops, ~39% of the time it will be a Growth orb, ~21% Wisdom, ~31% Clans, and 9% Ascension. Your odds of getting a Minor Orb of Ascension from Cedric is around 1.8%

For Major Orbs, Growth is ~29%, Wisdom 26%, Clans 37%, and Ascension 8%. Odds of getting a Major Orb of Ascension from Cedric is around 1.4%.

Troops

The last thing Cedric can drop is troops. You’ll see a troop about 31% of the time. However, I’m not even going to bother with the odds for each troop, even though I’ve tracked it, because they’ve added troops like Glory Gnome and Mecha Gnome in that were not there when I started this.

My BEST guess though based on my data is that each troop has a 10% chance to drop, except for Cedric Sparklesack himself, which drops about 30% of the time (when a troop drops).

Conclusions

Now that we know all the reward odds, what’s a Vault Key really worth? We know we’re going to see some kind of gold reward with a very high consistency, and 90% of the time, that reward is going to be between 2.5k and 10k. You should also brace yourself for seeing souls as a reward just under half the time. But you should also realize that things like gems and diamonds drop at a fairly high frequency. So when you buy a vault key, keep in mind that you are basically purchasing: the gems that come with the vault key, AND the gems and gold, on average, that come from the vault key itself. So your actual gems per dollar spent will most likely be higher because of rewards from the vault. That makes vault keys a pretty good buy!

Some of my best and worst vault runs

  • 250 Gems, 50k and 2.5k gold, and 100 souls
  • 250 Gems, 4k and 2.5k gold, and 5 gems
  • 250 Gems, 10k and 2.5k gold, 1 gem key
  • Major Orb of Ascension, 4k and 2.5k gold, 3 Event Keys
  • 50 Diamonds, 20k and 2.5k gold, and 5 gems

And the worst…

  • 2 Minor Magic Traitstones, 2 Minor Magic Traitstones, 100 souls, Minor Orb of Growth
  • 2 Minor Fire Traitstones, 100 souls, 100 souls, Minor Orb of Growth
17 Likes

Last time I bought vault keys, I got gems for 2 cents each; but when factoring in the gems from the vault - the real cost was around 1.3 cents/gem - which is by far the best deal this game ever offers.

Thank you for sharing this information.

Many gnomes died to bring us this information.

9 Likes

And many more will die to reinforce it.

Unfortunately I didn’t pick up the $15 flash offer for 8 vault keys, or I’d have 24 more gnomes with a death sentence on them! But I did snag 6 vault keys over the weekend.

And for anyone wondering, I can’t use any data except my own, because I unfortunately can’t trust that what I’m receiving is every vault run by that person over a lengthy span of time. The data would be very skewed if I started adding everyone’s vault runs to it but people only sent me their best!

1 Like

If you want to spend time analyzing…

Nope, not me. 200+ consecutive vault keys both during vault weekends and outside of them.

Summary
4000 gold 60000 gold 1 event key 100 souls
minor ascension 10000 gold 2500 gold 100 souls
50 diamonds 5 diamonds 4000 gold 4000 gold
1 event key 2 minors 2500 gold 100 souls
Pet gnome 5 diamonds 5 gems 1 gem key
Treasure gnome 5 gems 6000 gold 2500 gold
Orb of clans 3 celestials 6000 gold 100 souls
Sparkleshack 2500 gold 2500 gold 4000 gold
5 diamonds 1 gem key 15 event keys 2 minors
minor growth 60000 gold 30000 gold 4000 gold
4000 gold 60000 gold 4000 gold 100 souls
major growth 5 gems 5 gems 2500 gold
minor ascension 2 diamonds 5 gems 4000 gold
10000 gold 20000 gold 60000 gold 1 event key
minor growth 4000 gold 2500 gold 100 souls
Pet gnome 5 diamonds 2500 gold 1 event key
2500 gold 60000 gold 2500 gold 2 minors
2 celestials 60000 gold 6000 gold 1 gem key
2 celestials 50 diamonds 20000 gold 4000 gold
Treasure gnome 5 gems 1 event key 100 souls
Cedric sparkleshack 2 minors 100 souls 500 souls
4000 gold 100 souls 100 souls 2500 souls
minor clans 2500 gold 2 minors 2 minors
minor growth 2500 gold 2 minors 2 minors
Treasure gnome 5 gems 2500 gold 2 minors
major wisdom 4 gem keys 1 gem key 2 minors
minor growth 5 gems 2500 gold 2500 gold
50 diamonds 4000 gold 100 souls 100 souls
major wisdom 2500 gold 2500 gold 100 souls
major growth 2 diamonds 2500 gold 2 minors
major wisdom 2500 gold 4000 gold 2500 gold
soul gnome 2500 gold 100 souls 5 gems
3 celestials 2 diamonds 4000 gold 60000 gold
60000 gold 4000 gold 100 souls 100 souls
major clans 2 diamonds 5 gems 1 gem key
Treasure gnome 10000 gold 2500 gold 100 souls
minor clans 5 diamonds 4000 gold 1 event key
Treasure gnome 2500 gold 1 gem key 2 minors
Treasure gnome 5 gems 2500 gold 100 souls
major wisdom 2500 gold 2500 gold 2 minors
100 souls 20 000 gold 60 000 gold 100 souls
100 souls 1 gem key cedric sparkleshack 2500 gold
2 minors 2 minors 60 000 gold 1 gem key
6000 gold 1 event key 60 000 gold 4000 gold
2500 gold 6000 gold major clans 2 diamonds
2500 gold 2500 gold minor ascension 2500 gold
2 minors 4 gem keys minor growth 5 gems
4000 gold 2 minors minor growth 2 diamonds
100 souls 1 gem key 20 gem keys 5 gems
5 gems 5 gems cedric sparkleshack 5 gems
100 souls 4000 gold minor ascension 2 minors
2 minors 2500 gold cedric sparkleshack 2500 gold
4 gem keys 100 souls minor clans 500 souls
1 event key 2500 gold minor wisdom 100 souls
100 souls 2500 gold 2500 souls 3 event keys
500 souls 6000 gold cedric sparkleshack 2 diamonds
2500 gold 2 minors 60 000 gold 5 gems
3 event keys 1 event key cedric sparkleshack 4 gem keys
6000 gold 2500 gold major growth 2500 gold
100 souls 4000 gold jewel gnome 100 souls
2 minors 2500 gold 60 000 gold 20 gems
4000 gold 2 gems minor growth 5 gems
500 souls 4 gem keys 50 diamonds 2500 gold
100 souls 1 event key minor growth 2 minors
2500 gold 1 gem key major clans 2 minors
2 diamonds 2500 gold 2500 souls 1 gem key
2 minors 1 event key 15 event keys 1 event key
2 diamonds 4000 gold 15 event keys 5 gems
2 minors 100 souls major wisdom 4 gem keys
500 souls 100 souls major growth 5 gems
2500 gold 2 minors cedric sparkleshack 5 diamonds
5 gems 100 souls major clans 20 000 gold
2 minors 2500 gold 15 event keys 2500 gold
100 souls 100 souls major growth 100 souls
3 event keys 4000 gold minor clans 2500 gold
100 souls 4000 gold cedric sparkleshack 2 minors
5 gems 2500 gold 60 000 gold 5 gems
2 diamonds 1 gem key minor wisdom 20 000 gold
5 gems 2500 gold major growth 1 event key
500 souls 100 souls minor growth 4 gem keys
1 event key 1 gem key minor wisdom 1 gem key
2 minors 5 diamonds major ascension 2 diamonds
6000 gold 5 gems cedric sparkleshack 2 diamonds
4000 gold 5 diamonds 50 diamonds 5 gems
100 souls 100 souls major clans 20 000 gold
1 gem key 4000 gold 20 gem keys 1 gem key
3 event keys 2 minors cedric sparkleshack 10 000 gold
5 gems 2500 gold 50 diamonds 100 souls
3 celestials 100 souls minor growth 100 souls
4 gem keys 4000 gold 60 000 gold 2 minors
100 souls 1 gem key major growth 5 diamonds
2 minors 2 minors valraven 4 gem keys
100 souls 2500 gold minor growth 100 souls
1 gem key 1 event key treasure gnome 2500 gold
1 gem key 1 event key minor clans 2 diamonds
5 diamonds 2500 gold pet gnome 2 minors
2 diamonds 2500 gold minor wisdom 5 gems
10 000 gold 100 souls 1000 souls 1 event key
100 souls 4 gem keys glory gnome 2 minors
2 diamonds 2500 gold valraven 4000 gold
2 diamonds 2 minors 50 diamonds 20 gems
100 souls 4000 gold major clans 2500 gold
2500 gold 100 souls 15 event keys 5 gems
100 souls 2 minors 100 gems 2 diamonds
2500 gold 2500 gold 250 gems 30 000 gold
5 gems 100 souls minor ascension 2500 gold
5 diamonds 4000 gold minor ascension 2500 gold
4000 gold 2 diamonds 250 gems 2 minors
6000 gold 2500 gold 15 event keys 1 gem key
1 gem key 2500 gold pet gnome 100 souls
2 minors 500 souls valraven 2 minors
2 minors 2 minors 250 gems 100 souls
1 gem key 500 souls cedric sparkleshack 100 souls
50 000 gold 2 minors 60 000 gold 2500 gold
5 diamonds 100 souls jewel gnome 5 gems
2 minors 5 gems minor growth 5 gems
500 souls 5 gems major wisdom 2500 gold
2500 gold 2500 gold minor wisdom 3 event keys
2 diamonds 2 diamonds major wisdom 6 000 gold
5 gems 2 minors 60 000 gold 5 gems
4000 gold 5 gems jewel gnome 30 000 gold
4 gem keys 5 gems 250 gems 4000 gold
2 minors 100 souls valraven 5 diamonds
2500 gold 2500 gold 20 gem keys 4 gem keys
2 diamonds 2500 gold jewel gnome 2 minors
4000 gold 4000 gold major growth 4 gem keys
2 diamonds 2 minors 100 gems 2 diamonds
5 gems 100 souls minor growth 4 gem keys
100 souls 2500 gold 60 000 gold 100 souls
1 gem key 500 souls 20 gem keys 5 diamonds
1 vault key 2500 gold glory gnome 5 gems
2500 gold 2500 gold major clans 10 000 gold
20 000 gold 2500 gold 20 gem keys 30 000 gold
2 minors 5 gems treasure gnome 2 diamonds
1 event key 4000 gold cedric sparkleshack 100 souls
6000 gold 2500 gold cedric sparkleshack 100 souls
100 souls 4000 gold minor clans 100 souls
2 minors 20 000 gold 60 000 gold 3 celestials
5 gems 5 diamonds glory gnome 5 diamonds
2 minors 1 gem key minor wisdom 2500 gold
2 minors 5 diamonds 50 diamonds 2500 gold
2500 gold 2 minors glory gnome 5 gems
2500 gold 2500 gold minor clans 2500 gold
4000 gold 2500 gold valraven 3 celestials
2 diamonds 4000 gold minor clans 5 gems
2 minors 2 minors jewel gnome 4 gem keys
5 diamonds 100 souls minor ascension 30 000 gold
4000 gold 5 gems 60 000 gold 100 souls
2500 gold 2 diamonds 100 gems 5 gems
2 minors 20 gems cedric sparkleshack 1 vault key
500 souls 4000 gold major growth 2500 gold
5 diamonds 5 gems 50 diamonds 2 minors
2 minors 2 minors minor clans 2500 gold
100 souls 100 souls minor growth 100 souls
1 event key 2500 gold minor growth 500 souls
5 gems 2500 gold 15 event keys 10 000 gold
100 souls 4000 gold 60 000 gold 500 souls
3 event keys 6000 gold minor ascension 3 event keys
2 diamonds 5 gems 2500 souls 20 000 gold
100 souls 3 event keys minor growth 2500 gold
4000 gold 3 celestials 60 000 gold 2500 gold
1 event key 2500 gold 60 000 gold 1 gem key
500 souls 2 diamonds 20 gem keys 5 diamonds
2 minors 2500 gold major wisdom 2500 gold
20 000 gold 5 gems major growth 6 000 gold
5 gems 2 minors minor wisdom 2 diamonds
2500 gold 6000 gold minor wisdom 2500 gold
2 minors 1 gem key 60 000 gold 1 event key
100 souls 2500 gold major ascension 100 souls
2500 gold 1 event key 60 000 gold 1 event key
2 minors 20 000 gold valraven 2 500 gold
500 souls 2 500 gold 60 000 gold 2 diamonds
2 diamonds 2 minors 60 000 gold 1 gem key
2 diamonds 100 souls 60 000 gold 2 diamonds
4 000 gold 2 500 gold minor wisdom 3 celestials
30 000 gold 4 000 gold treasure gnome 2 minors
2 diamonds 4 000 gold minor ascension 4 gem keys
2 500 gold 6 000 gold valraven 2 diamonds
100 souls 2 500 gold pet gnome 4 gem keys
3 celestials 6 000 gold 2 500 souls 5 gems
2 500 gold 2 500 gold major growth 2 500 gold
5 gems 20 000 gold 50 diamonds 6 000 gold
100 souls 1 event key major wisdom 2 500 gold
2 minors 10 000 gold 15 event keys 1 event key
2 500 gold 1 gem key cedric sparklesack 2 minors
2 minors 2 500 gold pet gnome 4 000 gold
3 event keys 100 souls minor growth 4 000 gold
20 gems 2 500 gold jewel gnome 2 diamonds
500 souls 2 500 gold valraven 4 000 gold
4 gem keys 3 event keys cedric sparklesack 20 gems
100 souls 4 000 gold 60 000 gold 2 500 gold
2 minors 4 000 gold minor growth 2 minors
20 000 gold 2 500 gold cedric sparklesack 2 500 gold
2 minors 5 gems valraven 2 minors
4 000 gold 2 minors major ascension 6 000 gold
100 souls 5 gems major wisdom 2 500 gold
5 gems 2 500 gold 15 event keys 2 500 gold
2 500 gold 6 000 gold 60 000 gold 500 souls
100 souls 5 diamonds 60 000 gold 100 souls
2 minors 1 gem key minor growth 5 gems
2 500 gold 2 diamonds 15 event keys 4 000 gold
2 minors 50 000 gold jewel gnome 2 500 gold
2 500 gold 2 minors 20 gem keys 10 000 gold
2 minors 4 000 gold 15 event keys 1 event key
4 gem keys 5 gems 20 gem keys 100 souls
500 souls 5 gems major wisdom 100 souls
2 minors 1 gem key major wisdom 1 gem key
10 000 gold 2 500 gold soul gnome 3 event keys
4 000 gold 2 minors 15 event keys 5 gems
6 000 gold 5 gems minor clans 2 minors
1 gem key 2 500 gold 60 000 gold 2 500 gold
2 500 gold 4 000 gold major growth 100 souls
2 500 gold 100 souls glory gnome 2 minors
100 souls 500 souls jewel gnome 100 souls
500 souls 5 diamonds major ascension 4 000 gold
1 gem key 2 minors 100 gems 1 gem key
5 gems 2 500 gold major wisdom 100 souls
10 000 gold 5 gems cedric sparklesack 4 gem keys
5 gems 1 gem key 60 000 gold 2 minors
100 souls 4 000 gold minor wisdom 500 souls
100 souls 500 souls minor wisdom 2 500 gold
2 500 gold 4 000 gold 60 000 gold 10 000 gold
2 500 gold 5 gems 60 000 gold 2 500 gold
2 500 gold 1 gem key minor growth 10 000 gold
100 souls 2 minors treasure gnome 1 event key
100 souls 100 souls 15 event keys 1 gem key
5 gems 5 gems cedric sparklesack 100 souls
100 souls 2 diamonds 50 diamonds 2 500 gold
100 souls 2 500 gold major ascension 3 event keys
2 minors 3 celestials 20 gem keys 2 500 gold
100 souls 100 souls 20 gem keys 2 500 gold
2 500 gold 2 500 gold mecha gnome 100 souls
100 souls 2 500 gold minor growth 6 000 gold
2 500 gold 1 gem key cedric sparklesack 2 500 gold
4 000 gold 5 gems minor wisdom 500 souls
2 500 gold 2 minors 20 gem keys 5 diamonds
100 souls 5 gems pet gnome 2 diamonds
2 500 gold 2 500 gold soul gnome 4 000 gold
3 celestials 3 event keys treasure gnome 5 gems
2 500 gold 2 diamonds major ascension 2 minors
100 souls 2 minors 20 gem keys 1 vault key
4 000 gold 100 souls minor growth 1 gem key
100 souls 1 gem key 50 diamonds 50 000 gold
2 minors 2 minors 50 diamonds 30 000 gold
4 000 gold 2 minors minor growth 6 000 gold
100 souls 100 souls 50 diamonds 2 diamonds
500 souls 100 souls cedric sparklesack 2 500 gold
2 minors 4 000 gold minor wisdom 2 minors
2 minors 1 gem key major growth 1 gem key
10 000 gold 4 gem keys minor ascension 2 500 gold
2 Likes

Very nice!

In the last week a million British subjects have applied for benefits due to lost jobs and income. We get £45.99 for an orb (power) and a 1000 gems. Our food banks are dry but hey buy zuul for about £350 . What a disgusting attitude