(!) Spoiler Alert (!) -- [Any Details Provided are Subject to Change] (Part 1)

That link subject is irrelevant, it simply shows the logic, assumptions, and equations for a relatively similar case. :wink:

It is actually quite the opposite. See for details: Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

The are some other relevant wiki articles cited there. This forum harbors some traditional misconceptions on the matter including widely accepted and frequently mistaken use of “recall bias” which I presume is equivalent to more correct term “observer bias” or more properly should be referred as “statistical bias”. So far, there has been no clear evidence confirming or denying presence of this type of bias. Claiming that observer is biased is not the evidence, obviously. Bias (statistics) - Wikipedia

The main issue of course is always independence of separate throws. However, it is quite hard to determine in the case of particular pRNG systems especially those based on seed numbers as the issues on the origin of seed numbers remain obscure. I would still presume that each particular sequence of pRNG output is not entirely independent however it is still normally distributed provided that the sample is large enough. The whole sequence is determined completely and entirely by the seed number and will not change unless there is a new seed number generated. Whatever triggers this reset is not known to us, alas. And I am not aware of any method to reliably determine instances of this reset.

Came for spoilers, got math lesson

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Reminds me of that Far Side cartoon - “Can I go home now? My brain is full” :wink:

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I can see into the future! Here’s what I see happening 1 week from today:

  1. I’m playing PVP and I see a Doomclaw team for the first time.
  2. I think, “Huh… Doomclaw. I haven’t played against him before.”
  3. On the 2nd turn, the computer gets a crazy mana cascade. Doomclaw fills up, and devours 2 of my troops.
  4. I stare at my screen in disbelief for a full minute, wondering why I still play this game. I then hit the retreat button. The match is lost, and I only made 2 moves.
  5. As I exit PVP, a pop-up screen asks if I want to spend $50 bucks on Path to Glory II.
  6. I take out my baseball bat and smash my monitor to bits, while screaming bloody murder.
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This one:

farside_brain_full

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Mister Osborne here, somebody want me?

So in the midst of a huge anti-devour backlash, the devs release a mythic that can devour twice.
Why do I even bother?

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you’ve read my mind… the devour feature shouldn’t even exist! it ruins the game and what the Devs do? a card with a “chance” of 2 devours… “chance” of course, like the “40% chance” from the Krakens that is 99%.

I’m not sure I see the problem with Doomclaw. Yes, if he manages to devour both troops you’re screwed, but if you go up against a mythic without putting a proper counter against it on your team, you don’t get to complain if its spell connects. And with the Dwarf rework, Impervious fixed, a few Indigestible troops, Barrier and Mana Drain as possible counters, there are more than enough ways to defend against him. His high boost ratio seems like a bigger issue.

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They will also be protected by barriers - unlike Kraken who can ignore that sort of counter.

Six months ago that argument would have worked fairly well… but now that sudden cascades from nowhere can fill the enemy team, and wisps or trolls can loop on you with zero skill involved, we can likely see the mythic Doomclaw fill very quickly and eat stuff now and then… statistically it shouldn’t be often… but it will feel often enough and be very very annoying…

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Haha @moons you crack me up!

New stuff coming up:

KING SILENUS

Legendary Pan’s Vale Wildfolk

Slash & Burn (14 Red/Yellow): Deal [Magic + 4] damage to an enemy, boosted by Wildfolk allies, and half of that damage to adjacent enemies. Burn all enemies. [6x] 
 
 
 
MAX 16 Attack, 27 Life, 22 Armor, 12 Magic
 

Wildfolk Shield: Allied Wildfolk gain 2 Armor.
18 Minor Wind Traitstone Minor Wind Traitstone
10 Runic Wind Traitstone Runic Wind Traitstone
10 Runic Fire Traitstone Runic Fire Traitstone
 
Impervious: Immune to all Status Effects, Devour, and Mana Burn.
26 Minor Wind Traitstone Minor Wind Traitstone
12 Major Wind Traitstone Major Wind Traitstone
10 Arcane Storm Traitstone Arcane Storm Traitstone
 
Wild Mana: All Wildfolk start battle with 50% Mana.
34 Minor Wind Traitstone Minor Wind Traitstone
6 Arcane Storm Traitstone Arcane Storm Traitstone
2 Celestial Traitstone Celestial Traitstone
 

The internet has voted: Goaty McGoatface.


NAX

Epic Pan’s Vale Wildfolk-Mystic

Pan’s Eye (13 Purple/Brown): Cleanse an ally. Give them [Magic + 1] to a random Skill and 2 Magic. Double the effects if the ally is a Wildfolk. 
 
 
 
MAX 17 Attack, 31 Life, 12 Armor, 8 Magic
 

Wildfolk Bond: Allied Wildfolk gain 2 Life.
16 Minor Magic Traitstone Minor Magic Traitstone
8 Runic Magic Traitstone Runic Magic Traitstone
8 Runic Earth Traitstone Runic Earth Traitstone
 
Wildfolk Shield: Allied Wildfolk gain 2 Armor.
22 Minor Magic Traitstone Minor Magic Traitstone
8 Major Magic Traitstone Major Magic Traitstone
8 Arcane Skull Traitstone Arcane Skull Traitstone
 
Fast: Start battles with 50% Mana.
28 Minor Magic Traitstone Minor Magic Traitstone
4 Arcane Skull Traitstone Arcane Skull Traitstone
1 Celestial Traitstone Celestial Traitstone
 

I use antlers in all of my decorating.

Scheduled for 10/09/2017. All future troop details are subject to change at any time.

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So putting an antler-skull on your head makes you a Wildfolk? Good to know.

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yayaya, finally another yellow impervious for GW, but good one! :slight_smile:

Fairly limited options to combine Goaty McGoatface with other Wildfolk, but he looks like a solid troop overall.

There isn’t a single Wildfolk that uses blue mana. And Desert Mantis creates blue, so that takes him out…

And a lot of Wildfolk are already fast or empowered, so the 50% bonus is less of a bonus. I’m getting less and less interested.

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Ooh it’s red and yellow and burns things… ooh hang on that’s been done before…

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And shares the colours with the better ones, Sylvasi, Satyr Musician, Ragnagord.

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@Lyya - at the risk of straying off topic, can you tell me why Sylvasi doesn’t come up on GOWDB troops list when I enter “wildfolk” (or even just “wild”) in the filter?

@drathas - Sylvasi would turn blues to purple, to feed one of Nax, Tezca or Faunessa, none of which are exciting me overly.

Correct, this Nax also ain’t very interesting. If only it was consistently buffing magic then at least you could turn Satyr Musician in a mini Artema.

1 Like