(!) Spoiler Alert (!) -- [Any Details Provided are Subject to Change] (Part 1)

There’s a hint of my little pony about her. Good for those that like that sort of thing I suppose

1 Like

Can I check the maths on this? If the guild keys no longer yield guardians, shouldn’t the % be exactly double than if they do?

Also do you know if guild keys also give the 10x extra chance for mythics that gem keys reportedly do?

IIRC, the chance on each key is doubled if you no longer get guardians.

The probabilities @rasper has computed are for multiple keys, so the effect is compounded and not linear.

2 Likes

ehi, mate, can u plz give me the link to the topic where there’s the link to the google sheet with previous of cards? ty very much

If you mean the same tool I have in mind it’s not a google sheet. Check if that’s what you are after:

1 Like

Did you want one of these?

actreal’s Arcane Schedule Thread
Rasper’s Event Spreadsheet

1 Like

Are either of you interested in opening a fresh spoiler thread and keeping all the summary info in the OP?

4500 seals = 225 keys

Chance of mythic in 1 key = 0.001 (1 in 1000)
Chance of non-mythic in 1 key = 1 - 0.001 = 0.999
Chance of all non-mythic in n keys = 0.999^n
Chance at least 1 mythic in n keys = 1 - 0.999^n

If guardians are present, you get 112 non-guardians, so n = 112
1 - 0.999^112 = 1 - 0.8939 = 0.1061 = 10.6%

If guardians are not present, n = 225
1 - 0.999^225 = 1 - 0.7984 = 0.2016 = 20.2%

4 Likes

If only RNG works like that math. My best pull from guild keys so far is BD and Bunni Nog.

2 Likes

ok thanks, that’s way over my head haha.

i just thought the chance would be a simple double if guardians no longer dropped.

Think about it this way- If you had a 50% chance to get what you wanted with 1 chest, would you have a 100% chance to get it in 2 chests?

3 Likes

One example I like about probability: Imagine flipping a coin and getting heads 26 times in a row. The odds are just staggeringly small. But if everyone in the US tried it one, there is a 99.3% chance someone would get it.

1 Like

Also known as:

5 Likes

I think the Law of large numbers is most prominently visible when it comes to all kinds of lotteries. There is a really tiny chance you’ll get the jackpot (probably 1 in dozens of millions) yet someone gets it.

1 Like

Valid question here to those of you doing the datamining…

“Spoiler Alert: Under New Management”

I don’t know. I legitimately forgot the thread was started by someone else lol.

I’d suggest waiting until the next big data dump. We’ve had a few new details about mythics and such, but nothing about events after July 24. I’d wager either tonight or next week they will add the August and September event schedule to the game data. At that point it would be worth starting fresh again.

Fair enough.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: statistics is the only branch of mathematics where things don’t work exactly the way you think they should. Wrapping your head around random chances is really hard, which is why most people are awful at understanding probabilities.

5 Likes

My experience with topology begs to differ. :stuck_out_tongue:

4 Likes

I think a lot of people struggle with maths in general. I once bought something in a store and it costs 9.10. Gave the cashier 10.10 so that she would have to bother with change but it completely confused her. I gave up after a few minutes.

5 Likes