How did King Highforge appear twice? Has something like this happened before?
It’s not exactly a big deal – I didn’t even notice it until round 3! – but I’ve never seen a team duplicated in this mode before. In a mode where I already wish there was a greater variety of teams to fight (there are, what, only 7 total, with 5 picked? Queen Mab, Queen Titania, Emperor Korvash, and anything else if I forgot one)
Also, I located my prior screenshot (taken when it happened back in February) so I’ve added that to my OP.
Combined with previous reports, all 3 incidents seem to share only team #4 being duplicated, maybe this is useful? After all, as stated previously if the teams were selected randomly with no “duplicate protection” then we would expect duplicate teams to happen constantly (~80% of the time) – even if only team #4 was somehow not checking for duplicates, this could still be expected to happen frequently (~40%), yet these duplicates are actually super rare in practice.
Also, here are a few ideas for this mode going forward:
Shuffle the 5 Champion teams after each round is completed (all 5 champions defeated) – the fact that it’s the same teams each round is why this mode sucks to play.
Add more teams to the mode, to increase the variety.
Additional team ideas
There seem to be 9 teams currently:
Chief Stronghorn (Tauros / Wild Plains)
Emperor Korvash (Human / Leonis Empire)
Gar’Nok (Orc / Grosh-Nak)
Hyndla Frostcrown (Giant / Stormheim)
King Highforge (Dwarf / Khaziel)
King Mikhail (Urska / Urskaya)
Queen Mab (Fey / Glacial Peaks)
Queen Titania (Fey / Bright Forest)
Queen Ysabelle (Human / Sword’s Edge)
I see a theme that each team appears centered around a specific “ruler” kingdom Legendary (king/queen/etc) so … how about some new additions? For example:
New incident: (screenshot taken, but pending upload)
This week’s Shaman Class Trial featured:
Emperor Korvash
Queen Titania
King Mikhail
Emperor Liang
Queen Titania
Again, this is suspected to be a bug due to how rare it is.
If the Champion teams are intended to be 5 unique picks then it’s obviously a bug, period.
If duplicate Champions are allowed, then statistically (100% - (9 * 8 * 7 * 6) / (10^4) = 100% - 30.2%) or ~70% of Class Trial events can be expected to have at least one duplicate team, but this is (as far as I can tell) only my third incident in 9 months (11/30 from 2/16 = 289 days or 42 Class Trial events) so the actual incidence of duplicate teams is at most 1/14 or 7%, not comparable to the expected value at all.
Again, if duplicate teams are “allowed” then we should reasonably expect to see a duplicate team appear 70% of the time, yet the actual incidence (over 9 months) is only about 7%. The incidences do not reflect the math at all – there must be something else going on under the hood.
For comparison
Back when the Boss Dungeon rework launched, it was quickly documented that certain doors would never contain certain rooms, making certain combinations more/less likely to yield a Perfect Run (aka. Dragonite reward) than others. This was later confirmed to be a bug and was fixed, but it was a pretty subtle one that needed a closely monitored code walk/analysis by the dev team to determine just what was actually causing it.)
list of teams and the math
Class Trial appears to use a pool of 10 teams, each focused around a “ruling class” Kingdom Legendary:
Chief Stronghorn
Emperor Korvash
Emperor Liang
Gar’Nok
Hyndla Frostcrown
King Highforge
King Mikhail
Queen Mab
Queen Titania
Queen Ysabelle
Probability of picking 5 of 10 unique teams completely by random:
= P(10,5) / 10^5 = P(9,4) / 10^4 = 3024 / 10^4 = ~30.2%
Inverse probability (i.e. at least one duplicate occurs):
= (100% - 30.2%) = ~69.8%
Another incident – and the first “streak” of duplicates in a row:
King Highforge
Gar’Nok
King Highforge
Queen Mab
Chief Stronghorn
Again, the questions are:
if this was “intentional” then why is it so rare? We would (mathematically) be seeing duplicates in ~70% of Class Trial events, (and by extension, a “streak” ~50% of the time)
How are the cpu teams for Class Trial events actually chosen?
