I’ve brought this issue up before but it got dismissed as “RNG Streakiness”. Over time this issue has only increased. The code is degrading. I’m certain this is happening more than the devs actually think it’s happening. I noticed it was really bad last month during our big LT week, but figured that this would fall on def ears and let it go.
This… Just now… Is simply too much though.
We’ve looked forward to this week for 4 weeks now and I’m not going to ask people to stop donating. I’m sure we won’t be reimbursed for the LT we should of received instead due to the bug. But seriously good luck in dismissing this as “RNG Streakiness” without losing tremendously even more trust from your community.
(I’m frustrated because I tried to show you all when the wall was cracking. And now that the wall is literally breaking apart… it’ll be at least 14 hours from now before any of you can/will be able to possibly do anything about it.)
It continues…
183 LT done so far… None of them have a been a mythic LT…hmmm I wonder why that is. (As of 9.5 hours after reset.)
Another cluster that I can’t SS any repeats from…
(I like the change in how mail works, but it makes it even more important for LT to be working the right way in the first place.)
That was 6-7 weeks ago.
I asked about the past 30 days because 30 days ago we did 253 LT and though I noticed streaks then as well. It was no where near as broken as it is today.
I felt the need to clarify to make it clear that I don’t (and would never waste the time) to make an alt discord account to get around a personal matter ban that was handed down by the individual who is in charge of the “community” server. I ban folks all the time from my server over petty crap… But I’m not the one who is supposed to be above such bias and put in charge of a community server. Again… This is just to clarify why I wasn’t able to see the post first hand that is most likely related to the issue my guild is having today.
So before opening the images to see them properly it definitely looks like a lot of repeats.
But opening the screenshots, there’s not that many repeated rewards right next to each other.
The LT reward tables aren’t that large and some rewards have a higher chance of dropping than others so you will see some more often.
When you complete a large number of LTs like your Guild does you will see more repeats simply due to the smaller drop table and the number of tasks you’re completing.
LTs weren’t touched, the Epic Tasks were just slotted in between the original Guild Tasks and the LTs.
So just because we do a lot more after… Doesn’t justify the fact that these repeats are triggering at an all time high. If anything… It gives you a huge sample size to say “Wow that’s too many streaks”
We’ve always done a bunch of LT.
Streaks happen but not at this frequency.
They are repeating within groups of 10.
Between NA Rasslabone and us… In the past 8 days you have guilds doing a combined 600 LT without receiving a Mythic LT.
Highly irregular when you consider what the drop rate for mythic LT is supposed to be.
At what rate of repeats will any of you take this seriously and actually check to see if it’s bugged?
Rather than just dismiss it as just “RNG”.
I get that in 90% of your tickets that is actually the technical and correct answer to issues.
Yet you yourself will admit. When I bring an issue to your attention. It’s not a simple matter. Please check the code… Run the simulation tests or whatever you need to do. Because right now it just looks like the devs screwing players out of rewards… again.
These streaks never happen with troop LT.
That can’t be a coincidence.
Rolls are repeated if the same reward category is hit a second time, e.g. you can’t get a gem key from the first and the second roll. This makes ending up with 4 glory keys and 1 gem key from the first two rolls excessively likely.
Second, the mail system sorts the rewards. It doesn’t matter if the legendary task hit a gem key followed by 4 glory keys or 4 glory keys followed by 1 gem key, it always shows the gems key first, then the glory keys. This makes it excessively likely for legendary tasks to appear similar, even though the contents were pulled in a different sequence.
@Kafka In ^that topic you said they were updated to be more robust. Now you are saying they weren’t touched. Can you explain how those two claims are coherent? Guild are going to structure their requirements to obtain LTs. It would be nice to have some honesty about what was, or wasn’t done.
Except in my experience of seeing 70 LT a week on average for like 2 years now.
They usually don’t repeat and have been rather unlikely.
So you… The non developer says it’s common for 10 LT to have repeats.
While the developer says it’s only happening because we do so many LT.
I’m gonna roll the dice and bet that you didn’t even look at all the SS that I provided in the OP.
It’s not that the LT are sharing stage 1 and 3 reward.
Its that all 3 stages of a reward are “rolling” and coming up exactly the same.
That with the combination of Mythic Legendary Tasks falling outside of expected drop rate was also a sign that something was off in the code.
Load and behold though…
This morning 23 more LT…
And not a single repeat LT after I raised hell about this. But was told nothing was wrong.
Weird.
And fyi… Legendary Tasks are all server side and the rates (or code) can be altered on the fly at any time.
If you roll a die 600 times, there will be several streaks of identical rolls. You can screenshot those streaks and make it look like the die isn’t behaving properly/randomly, but it’s obviously silly to do that. Because of how LT rewards are rolled and sorted, there aren’t as many possible (common) outcomes as you’re probably expecting, and the outcome will have streaks like the die example.
The chance of missing a mythic troop across 600 consecutive legendary tasks is 5% ( (199/200)^600 ) (stated droprate 1/200). 5% rolls happen all the time, and aren’t evidence that something is wrong.
The chance of a streak starting at any particular moment is very low, so this is expected. The chance of several streaks across a sample of 600 is very high.
Of course, the droprates or random number generator could be broken (chaos shards), and we’d have no way to know that. But the behavior you’re screenshotting isn’t cause for suspicion.
Which is why I raised the issue in a bug report for the devs who can check the actual logs to verify that the SS aren’t taken out of context at all.
If that’s the actual drop rate. You’re assuming that another players info is correct. I believe Salty said somewhere the actual drop rate. I’ll have to find it if no one else can.
I don’t assume to know anything about you.
But trust me when I say the frequency of Legendary tasks being repeated like that in the span of less than 12 hours is highly abnormal.
Well, yes, it doesn’t take a developer for this, rather somebody somewhat familiar with probabilities. If you are interested I can also explain why 183 legendary tasks without a mythic isn’t very unusual.
You might want to get better dice, they seem to be pretty streaky in rolling up the wrong results.
Screenshots of a very small number of 183 tasks doesn’t really offer good data to work with. If you are interested in a detailed analysis you should provide an unbiased list of all tasks in sequence.
Well, I think we can at least agree that the drop rates should be public and tested often. A lot of stuff is released broken, so I don’t blame you for asking for clarification. I think Salty posted 1/200 around the time 4.7 released, but I’m too lazy to find it.
My guild does 20ish LTs per week post 4.7. We’ve gotten a bunch of mythic drops over the last year, but none recently.
I don’t. Because I know it’s not.
Having my guild do 636 LT in 7 days without a Mythic LT made me very much aware of “bad luck”. But it also opened my eyes to how much the LT system is in fact broken. But that’s a matter for a different time.
I’m not… I was interested in the developer checking the code to see if anything more is broken with LT.
I have zero doubt that, that has happened already and that they adjusted it already. While also not being dumb enough to admit anywhere publicly that something was actually broke
Because of the amount of tickets it would generate wanting compensation for something that only really effected less than 5% of the guilds in the game.
I took a video of it.
So perhaps don’t make assumptions.
Am I supposed to post that something claimed not to be a bug is no longer bugged?
Look gentleman. As fun as it is to debate with those who haven’t been in my guild for 3 years and witnessed a high sample size on a regular basis. I feel like at this point it’s like talking to a flat earther.
I’m going to believe that the world is a sphere.
You’re going to believe that the world is flat.
Nothing either side says (or proves) is going to change the others opinion.
So have a great day.
I hadn’t read your last post prior to mine. So my apologies for lumping you into the disagreeing bunch.
But yeah it doesn’t do any good to hunt down that statement knowing that they won’t be held accountable for it by any means.
Just skimming here before I start tickets, not sure how accurate @Fourdottwoone drop tables were but you can see there’s very few reward types per table, which is why you get repeats.
Mythic chance hasn’t dropped for LTs.
The more robust system I referred to in an earlier thread was to do with how the Tasks are structured in the back end - it has 0 effect on the drop rates, the drop tables or what you get on the front end (in game), it was optimisation of the code structure.
Tens of thousands of LTs have been collected since the change in our tests and in the live versions of the game and the drops are what we’re expecting.
@Kafka basically that is my only question. ^^^
When 3 out 6 LT completed are exactly the same. If that’s not too many repeats. Then how many are? 4/6, 5/6, 6/6? Or are repeats just never an issue?
What I’m basically alleging is “weighted dice” but not on purpose mind you.
Something in the code that’s causing a roll to duplicate rather than reroll. And in the case that we experienced yesterday… The false roll is not counting against future rolls, but instead triggering the likely hood that exact roll triggering again.
I just looked over our last 50 LT… Still a bunch of repeats.
(As of 9.5 hours after reset.)
