[rant/question] catch-up mechanic, bad luck protection?

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EDIT:
I know, half of my post is wrong because it was based on a misunderstanding of the official guide. I’m making a quick edit now and add a few things later when I have time to write something a more detailed.

ORIGINAL POST:
I have recently had quite a streak of bad luck as it happens in a RNG heavy game like GoW.
It has come to the point that it became a problem. I’m completely out of the PvP meta.
What was a short (under 90min-2h) run to get to PvP rank 1 with 25 +/- 2 matches a month or two ago has become a 68 matches grind with a 38% loss rate and having to farm “easy” fights to get to rank 5 to 1.
Yes, I know. “git gud”, that’s what I trying to do.

So I talked with my guild mates and looked closely on the way to fix this and after a few research and calculations I came to the conclusion there is now way to catch up in this game at least without having to become a whale or roll really really well.

Here are the numbers I got, please let me know if you spot a mistake or if I missed something.
Missing something is quite a possibility IMO. I can’t see everything from the depth of my own salt mine — and it’s quite a deep one these days…
Currently I’m missing 21 mythic to get all the mythic troops. And here are the fact I gathered

  • A new mythic unit is released around every 4 weeks.

  • It takes 8 weeks to be able to craft a mythic in the soul forge for free, if you take the 50 gems bundle everyday and don’t miss a day in the dungeon.
    So at best you can get one mythic every two month from that source.
    Ignoring the fact you still have to wait for the mythic you’re looking for to drop in the forge and it’s getting longer and longer for the rotation to complete since the dev keep adding new mythic units.
    With 39 mythic and counting, and 4 new units each week, that means with no added mythic it takes 10 week to fully rotate.

Disregard what is blurred, it’s completely wrong, see EDIT

- You can only accumulate 6k guild seals in a 4 weeks span (unless you burn guild orbs, IF you have some). (note: look for the orbs drop rate)
According to your own guide “NOTE: You will need to have earned more than 10,000 Guild Seals for Guild chests to have a chance to drop Mythic Troops.”
Source: https://gemsofwar.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360000041836-How-to-get-a-Mythic-Troop.
So that means that you can do that every two months too, unless RNG gives you 4k worth of guild orbs.

  • Assuming you get the released mythic in 12k worth of level 5 guild chests every two months (the clan orbs can give you a bit more) AND assuming you can get the mythic you want in an eight weeks rotation in the forge.

Correctly timed, that means you can alternate those to source of drop to keep up with the monthly release timing. But that ONLY gives you a keep up with the release, not overtake it.

To get higher that this drop rate you have fall back to praying to RNGsus when you burn your gem/honor/event keys.

So that means from now on, I’ll probably always be behind the meta with little to no chance of going back in, short of a miracle on the chests I open. I really hope I’m missing something because I don’t see the point of me trying to get back on the treadmill and fail every month.

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Well if you wish to get every mythic in the game you are correct it’s practically impossible now to play catch up. What you can do though is just forget all the bad mythics even exist (which is actually most of them) and just snipe the good ones with the soulforge.

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Your guild together needs to earn 10k guilds seals. If you have just 10 people in your guild earning 1k seals each that will be enough to upgrade your guild chests to a high enough level to include mythic troops.

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To add to what @Maxx wrote, you don’t ever want to open guild chests that reached the 10k level to dig for mythics. Save your seals until you can open guild chests that reached the 40k level, the chances for mythics are still tiny but MUCH better. If your guild doesn’t ever reach the 40k level, some guilds will accept visitors during recruitment Sunday for chest opening purposes if asked nicely.

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Looks like I misunderstood that line. it was about pushing guild chests to level 5. Not having to open 10k seals worth of chests.
Nevertheless I didn’t plan to open anything lower than level 5 guild chest so I’ll edit that my post.
But it make with WAY worse since the only non RNG way to get something is the forge and that a 2:1 wait ratio (2 mythics are release in the time it take to gather the mats for 1)

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Yes, this is how the game works. It doesn’t advertise itself as a gacha game but it’s the same mechanics. You will get the vast majority of your troops from opening keys, which are effectively loot crates. I’m not going to discuss if this is good or bad, but some people do not want to play this style of game so I wish GoW were more clear about it.

The good news is even if you’re “falling behind” on mythics, on average there’s an even lower than 2:1 ratio for “mythics you actually need”. There are 5, maybe 6 mythics that are absolutely required to build the teams you need in this game. The rest fall in a spectrum from “good in some cases” to “useless”. So in roughly a year, you ought to be set if you keep at it.

That’s where GoW is kind of weird to me. Most F2P games seem designed to have you play for about a month, then either start spending money or give up. GoW pushes that point out to about the six-month mark, but there are still compelling free goals out to the year mark.

The most important thing in this game is finding a guild with at least 20 people in it who play fairly frequently. They also have to be people you like and chat with daily. A guild that finishes all statues gives you so many resources it’s almost impossible to consider making reasonable progress without one.

The next most important thing in the game is deciding you will wait 8-10 months before evaluating if you’ve made progress. That’s easier to do if you hang out with cool guildmates in Discord constantly.

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I already played for more two years (and 1465h according to steam) it’s not the first I met that wall in this game but I never hit it that hard :smile:

Made some quick calculation from the Taranswolrd drop number from last week (0.108% per lvl 5 guild chest).
If I stay with my idea of alternating 2 months worth of guild seals I have around 47% chance to get the new mythic at least once. That’s a big coin toss. No wonder it’s so frustrating.

So yeah all I have left now is to prioritize the mythic I’m missing and hope to be lucky every 2 months wether in the forge or in my guild chests.

Guess I’ll have to accept the fact I’ll have the full unit list (which is total B.S. IMO)
Good thing my guild is full of good people. :wink:
A catch-up mechanism (even at ~1.25:1 rate in stead of a 1:2 rate that’s IG today) wouldn’t hurt that game.

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Guild chests aren’t the only source of mythics. You also have gem keys and glory keys. And if you’re a 2-year-veteran, you aren’t spending those on anything else anyway.

Here’s some numbers I ran earlier in the week about it.

Most people I know get the new mythic 3/4 months. A lot of the ones who get it less frequently are more frugal with their keys and stop sooner if they don’t think the mythic is vital. Resource management is important.

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Your numbers seem to check out around mine. Guess my math was right then :slight_smile:
I did a quick check for a 80% chance for 1 or more.
I found 12 000 Glory chest,
1700 gems chest,
1600 events chest ( given that’s the one you’re looking for)
and 1500 lvl 5 guild chest.