Here is a post with a screenshot: 4.3 Update (Patch Notes)
Let’s go over this one by one. Not all keys can drop mythics.
- Gold keys can’t.
- Glory, Gem, and VIP keys can.
- Guild keys can IF AND ONLY IF the guild has collected enough guild seals for the chest to be at a level that can drop mythics.
- Event keys can IF AND ONLY IF the event kingdom has a mythic, and they will only ever drop the kingdom’s mythic.
When the “mythic week” is in effect, you can get the new mythic from Glory, Gem, VIP, and Guild keys (presuming your guild has enough seals.) Event keys do not care that it is mythic week. We don’t know what happens if the kingdom and new mythic coincide, because I don’t think it’s ever happened. I can only assume what happens is a bug.
On the first day of Mythic week every player in the game spends a lot of keys chasing the mythic. It’s the day you’re going to see the most people get it. Look at it this way:
If there are two slot machines with a 1% jackpot rate, it’d be suspicious if they pay out 6 jackpots in 6 pulls. Now imagine it is 100 slot machines. If everyone pulls the lever at the same time, we sort of expect 1 jackpot. Now imagine it’s 1,000 slot machines. 10 jackpots.
The lowest I’ve been in PvP is around 24,000th place. So today, nearly 20,000 people were spending their keys. 20,000 gem keys is more than a 100% rate. In fact, 5,000 gem keys is enough to have about a 98% success rate. So if 20,000 people all spent 200 gem keys at once, that’s 4,000,000 gem keys. I’d expect to see at least 800 people get a mythic in that instant.
Since you saw 5 people in a row, it means there would have to be 25k gem keys being spent. If each person is spending 200 keys, that only requires 125 people to be online. Do you think it’s possible 125 people were all spending gem keys at the same time? I find that highly plausible.
The only reason the game has the mythic announcement is the availability heuristic. As humans, when we see a positive event, we are more likely to believe it will happen again even if we know, rationally, that it was unlikely. Casinos use this, it’s why a jackpot makes bells and whistles go off. Other gamblers see a winner and think, “Oh, I’m way more likely to win now” and spend more money.
It works. You spent your keys because you saw other people getting the mythic. It made you excited, so you rushed to get it for yourself. Don’t let it fool you. The odds were against you, especially with event keys, where the Queen of Sin rate is 0%.