Platform, device version and operating system:
PC/Mobile
What you were expecting to happen, and what actually happened:
I was expecting to find Grub Wildshot tokens in Shiny Chests, at the displayed 20% chance. I’ve only managed to find them in a single chest, opening 50 in total. This is such an impossible outlier, it’s basically guaranteed something has been configured incorrectly. Please check, there’s likely some other troop that has received the 20% drop chance instead.
This has been the case for the last two or three weeks.
The ‘featured’ troop would normally come up at a much higher rate such that you could get the ‘featured’ troop to Shiny Level 2 by opening about 20 Shiny chests.
This has been completely ninja changed without any notice to the community. They now just appear randomly and not with the increased amount.
@Jeto - this is a pretty serious issue/change and should result in an explanation.
Technically speaking, this isn’t “ninja change”, this is a very serious breach of loot box rules. The drop rates screen currently guarantees this:
Nothing has been changed or at least changed intentionally.
I’ll check in with the Production team to make sure that troop has it’s assigned featured drop rate chances, and does not have the normal chance.
That being said, like all chance data it’s rolling against that chance data for each single chest being opened, and that does not affect any further instances of opening a chest.
As in, just because you open a 100 chests, it doesn’t mean 20 chests will reward have the token. It’s opening 1 chest, 80% chance you don’t get the featured troop, repeated for as many chests as you open.
But again, I am asking the team to have a look and confirm.
They checked the data and confirmed that Grubs drop rates are correct for being the featured troop.
I also just opened 5 chests on my personal account a couple of times and I got him.
Please look at my data from last week and this week. Perhaps the week prior also.
Last week, I recall opening 20-25 shiny chests and only picked up enough for Shiny Level 1 (not sure if it even got to Level 2 with the guild event rewards later in the week).
This week I opened up 10 Shiny Chest and received none at all, and then gave up knowing something has been put off kilter.
Here is last weeks’ troop….after receiving the 5 shiny keys from the guild event, I only got to 1/10 of level 2. This means my 20-25 chests yieldes a single Bok shiny key.
The chance data isn’t stored on your account in any way, you are pulling the data from our servers. Which is the case for everyone, for all rewards.
So, I would not have been able to pull any copies if there was an issue with the data on our servers for the shiny troop chances.
Opening 10 total chests is not enough data to say that there is something wrong, and it cannot be compared to your luck in a previous week.
Each single chest is one single check against the chance data.
I opened another 10 chests myself, and I didn’t get any Shiny tokens for him.
Here is the week prior, Manasa.
I think I opened 20-35 chests, and only got 5 in total. The other 5 are from the guild event.
I’m pretty sure you are able to see how many Shiny chests I opened in total in each of the past three weeks.
Getting 7 tokens out of 35 chests is 20% (if you do not considering each single chest as a chance, on the good side of chance)
So far, we’ve already ask the production team to look at the actual data the server is using, as well as testing myself on a non dev account, and have not seen any issues.
If we were seeing a large number of reports, where people were opening hundreds of shiny chests and getting none or a tiny amount, then I would be concerned. But at the moment that is not the case.
Again, you have an 80% chance to not get the featured shiny troop at all.
The actual odds expected based on the loot table at 1.65 of the featured shiny troop per 5 keys spent. (You need to also consider the 2x and 3x chances).
So opening 35 chests should net you 7x1.65 or about 11-12 of the troop, not 7.
Opening 10 should give you ~3.
I get this game is all about RNG, but the last three weeks my results have fallen off a cliff. The net result is that I won’t purchase any shiny keys from the pvp shop.
There isn’t a “should” if the data is based on chance. Opening 100 doesn’t mean you should get 20.
Nothing has been changed on the server for anything relating to drop rates.
Even while working on updates, none of the data we have been working on is related or linked to chests in any way, so even if there was an issue with update data going out, none of it is linked to chests.
And again, it’s not possible for one player to have different data to anyone else, when opening chests.
Just wanted to create a similar post after several members in my guild were experiencing the same and not getting any tokens for him. Luckily we’ll be reaching stage 13 in a minute, so we should finish the event and get tokens from there. Thanks for the update. 
Well, that’s not true. If he has any chance, you could have pulled a copy. The only way you couldn’t have pulled a copy, would be if it was impossible to get copies. Nobody is arguing that. They’re arguing the odds are too low.
But by that logic, you opening 10 chests (or 15, or 30) is not enough data to say there is NOT something wrong. You might have got lucky, while everyone else is not having that same luck.
Your anecdotal evidence doesn’t disprove their claim. But if someone checked the code and it’s working correctly, then yeah, it should be working correctly.
That’s just as valid a data point as the first 10 chests giving you some. According to your findings, there’s a 50% chance the code is not working.
Yeah, I know that’s not actually how this works, I’m just pointing out that throwing small scale numbers out doesn’t prove anything. For you, or for those claiming the odds are broken.
That’s a valid argument. If it’s been tested, I’m inclined to treat it as bad RNG when a few people get bad odds. When there’s a lot of people complaining, that’s different.
That’s a misunderstanding of statistics. “Should” doesn’t matter. “You would expect” is the actual term, and it’s just a way of saying that’s an average result under those conditions. It doesn’t mean that will actually happen. If I flip a coin with a 50/50 chance of heads/tails, I would expect it to land on heads half the time. In reality that probably won’t happen, because it’s likely that I’ll get slightly more of one than the other.
To be clear, I’m not saying the chests are giving the right odds or aren’t, just that we don’t have enough evidence to say they aren’t. Thanks for checking, and if more people start having issues, hopefully it can be dealt with.
I also want to say, this is exactly why so many people hate how much RNG is being pushed into this game. Like the dragonite eggs. Because there will always be people who get unlucky and feel like the system is rigged against them. This kind of RNG always creates bad feeling in some players. I get why companies like doing it, but I’ll take any chance to point out why it sucks, as a customer or a consumer or a player.
