Platform, device version and operating system:
PS5 Screenshot or image:
none What you were expecting to happen, and what actually happened:
Opened chests and no Mythic.
2,000+ Glory Keys
10,000 Glory Wings
20,000 Guild Seals
3,000 Event Keys
3,000 Gem Keys
Jan 5 just before 5:30pm EDT.
How often does this happen? When did it begin happening?
Just this one period of time. Stopped as it was beyond the odds.
I just tried again Jan 6 at 12:45am and got a Mythic with only 400 Gem Keys.
Steps to make it happen again
It was just during that time frame, I DID try CLOSING the game but it still did not open a Mythic.
The mythic never appears in the EVENT chests so unfortunately those keys were wasted.
In the grand scheme of things the keys/seals used were not overly excessive. It looks as if you have been extremely lucky looking for previous mythics.
RNG - Sometimes you are lucky and sometimes it drains your resources !
(50k guild seals + the rest for me a few months back )
Good luck with the next one and I’m pleased for you that you got it in the end
3000 gem keys stings a bit. At that point, one would expect to have caught it even with below average luck, but yeah, it happens. I think, my worst run cost me 35000 gems once. (Also I had a horrendous one with event keys a couple of weeks back, when I got every mythic but the one I wanted in over 10k chests; at that point I’d rather wait for the soulforge).
A good indicator on whether a mythic is really bugged out or you are just on the bad end of draws is to have a look into a larger global chat before opening chests, to see if you get the usual status messages.
The game calculates each chest new, so there are neither mercy drops, nor you can influence it by restarting, hopping on one leg or sacrificing your firstborn (or at least the collected data shows no coincidence for any of those).
If you feel better, heavy cursing may still help nonetheless.
Just so everyone knows, you can see the drop rates for mythics on the chest screen, on console i click in left thumb stick.
Golry chests are ~1/10,000
Gem chests are ~1/1000
and guild chests (at max level) are ~1/1000
So you went about triple the rate for gem keys, went the expected amount for guild seals, and barely scratched the rate for glory. Unfortunate, but well within the realm of reasonable RNG.
When dealing with RNG, there is a curious (but unfortunate) quirk that an expected value of 100% (e.g. 10k attempts at a 0.01% drop rate) trends toward an overall “success rate” of about 63%, because the mutually opposite outcome (the chance of a continuous losing streak across all attempts) trends toward 1/e (about 37%). The reason this happens is because “success rate” isn’t the expected probability of just one successful drop, but one or more drops if they happen during the run.
A different game I am playing since a few years uses a “pooled random” pattern, meaning that within a certain number of draws you are guaranteed to always get no more and no less than x times item a, b and c. The only random factor there would be, at which position in the pattern your desired draw happens, and until all draw options are exhausted, it won’t appear another time either.
It is a MUCH more satisfying experience, than the gambling mechanics, that are used by most other games. Doesn’t push players into spending frenzies as much though of course.
)
