LOL The drop rate was increased because this Mythic isn’t that good.
I can’t remember the last time I manage to pull a Mythic on Mythic week…
In fact I can’t recall the last Mythic I pulled period.
Problem is, that “known information” is iffy at best. Those published drop rates have been wrong in the past on multiple occasions, the community usually eventually figured this out by collecting large data samples. Infinity Plus Two is taking great pains to hide this type of issue, they even removed a way to verify drop rates within the game API after the community used it several times to correctly call them out.
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Right so we can collect data and not jump to any conclusions about it until a lot of data has been collected. I highly doubt this will ever result in a “oh you opened 1000 keys last week and didn’t get a mythic so for some reason we are gonna tweak your rates just for you so you get the mythic this time” scenario. There is no motivation to ever do this as having a 1/1000 chance will give them better chance of getting more of your resources and in their hopes eventually money. If you look at the bottom section about probability in gems of war they do talk about that exactly and I don’t have any reason why we should doubt them on that. and if you see the statement I was replying to and the sentences directly above the link
I know they cannot be trusted on drop rates and we should collect data to keep them honest I have never debated that part of this topic. Just that the number of troops that exist being a factor in that or them selectively altering that drop rate per player based on past spending. Even if it is not the rates they say they have there will be a calculation that is static and won’t be affected by us.
I am all for us collecting a lot of data on this to keep checking that their drop rates are reflected in the data that is why I checked the thread due to the title. I was just against the idea that the numbers already collected in the OP were enough to reach any conclusion like
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Also after spending 250 more event keys last week on top of the resources I already mentioned I did end up pulling Kalika finally.
After the new mythic leaves the drop table as the only possible mythic we should create a new thread called “keeping them honest track your key drop rates here” And we can post all of our keys used exactly and which if any resulted in a mythic being dropped and see if we can get a large enough sample size of players to calculate. igniteice had a nice table of recorded data like that and that so far gives us the best idea on data. Even my own data only slightly adds to the pool and saying almost 1k gem keys is 996 or something I didn’t record the exact last digit but i should have if we are planning to use it.
We don’t have enough players posting here to make it statistically relevant. For instance, what if someone comes here to brag because they pulled 4 copies in 50 keys? What if the person who pulled 0 copies in 10k keys comes to vent?
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Some of us can collect data from guild members as well as ourselves. If we can collect enough data together then it would be worthwhile.
You might want to get in touch with @Hawx to find out how they (used to) track data.
They haven’t posted on the forums in months, but they do seem to still be around.
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I do wish we saw the published results of the Vault Key data gathering effort. There’s some nice stuff there, but no one ever did an analytical summary 
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I am still annoyed seeing Cedric frequently, but other than that I am happy with the orbs.
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Thanks, @Qoob !
I didn’t realize that section of the spreadsheet existed 
Motivates me to spend some Vault Keys in search for the other two band gnomes I don’t have. I’ll likely save for the potential spoiler, click at your own risk Soulforge Gnome update, though, because as much as I would like to add to the sample size now I also don’t want to miss out on any potential draws later 
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It doesn’t, this is my own analysis 
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Then double thank you for sharing
(And for reassuring me that I am not, in fact, blind or otherwise excel-impaired )