What are the odds of 6 devours in one game - with the 40% chance the devour firing off?
SIX…
(I was doing dragon event, played with against a Kraken… lost)
Assuming that the Kraken devoured every time it fired (so six fires, six hits), about 1 in 250.
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What’s the math since that is my question. I don’t get how you get 1 in 250
40% = 0.4
6 times: 0.4^6 = 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 = 0.004096 = 1/244 (about 1/250)
Edit:
And to go from 0.004096 to 1/244, simply press the “1/x” button on a calculator, or do it manually (1 / 0.004096 = 244)
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In general ask two questions:
- What is the chance of each individual event?
- How many ways could I arrange things?
Then multiply it all together. And take the inverse for a “1 in somuch” result.
For your example, the first event is 40%, or 0.4. Second to Sixth event is the same.
How many ways to arrange? Just 1, all devours.
So the answer is 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 1 = 0.004096. And as @Lun said, 1 in 244
A more complicated scenario: What if it was 6 devours in 7 casts
- 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.6 (because chances of not devour is 60%)
- How many ways? In this case there are 7 ways. The first cast could be the miss, or the 2nd, or the 3rd…
0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.6 * 7 = 0.0172, roughly 1 in 58.
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