I belong to a group of outstanding players, who play certain long term games and learn to break or take advantage of the system. We only share with each other and usually keep our information a secret in order to prevent the devs from fixing them. We also become their biggest nightmare whenever they release new content and we figure out a way to turn it around in our favor. I been playing Gems of War three weeks after it was released years ago on xbox and still active and play with the top guilds and always been in bracket 1 in Guild Wars since day 1. Also, you will recognize many of my defenses, in which I shared with some of the top players that play on pc, such as webspinner, moon rabbit, mercy, and yellow doom book. And now there are many variants out there. One of the issues I noticed and mentioned to my friends are the variables for drop rates. By experimentation, I showed how to increase your chances of getting good drops, like nysha tokens, blue orbs, and Imperial deed offers. But when I was part of the Guild of Thieves on xbox, I noticed not just a pattern on drop rates, but also a pattern on board set up and what drops when you make matches as well, especially when playing Guild Wars. I have played against the same players with the same defenses, and used the same offense and started with the same exact starting board and won the same exact moves.
Another topic was hoard mimics and vault drops. When hoard mimic was released, I was getting 1 every other day. I killed over 50 hoard mimics and never got a hoard mimic drop. Eventually, I got to a point in which I dont need to farm explore as much. I have 17 to 22 gold troops in all kingdoms and so I slowed down on doing explore. At one point, I haven’t seen a hoard mimic in over 5 months. And then 1 month ago, I left my guild and I got 3 hoard mimics in 2 days. And now in my new guild, I am seeing a hoard mimic every 5-6 days depending on farming. I am at a point that I can just do World Events and get season medals, which would be enough to upgrade remaining troops to gold and hit the 20 mark per kingdom. I already accepted the fact I will probably never see this drop, nor get the achievement associated with it, which is fine. Because until we get enough books to upgrade our kingdoms to 18 and then eventually to 20, our kingdoms will never pass kingdom power 27 for a while. So missing out on troops wont be a big deal in the short run. I am at around 65-70 hoard mimic kills now. Until there are updates on certain issues, I don’t have any reason to spend money nor gems on this game, which is fine. Currently, gems are going to dragonite. One issue is until I upgrade a kingdom to 18 for kingdom power 27, I am gettting an event key for offer, which is irrelevant. I am sitting at 71 Imperial deeds and enough writs to build 6 books and if I am getting ingot, pet food, or event offers instead of useful stuff, them they lose out, because I wont need to spend any gems. As far as spending money goes, I bought 3 years of game pass for $1 and I made $300 in virtual money from Bing searches, achievements, etc through Microsoft rewards. So, buying a campaing pass or kingdom pass is free for me. But if I dont need the troops and can get them later through chests, then I don’t really need to spend any more money on this game, since I wont be able to go pass kingdom power 27. If I had free time, I would take advantage of gnome weekend, make 1000 vk, get about 10k gems, and then spend them on deeds to upgrade to books, but if I keep on getting the useless offers, then that becomes a waste of time as well. I got an insane of Imperial deed offers from arena, which I did 3 per day and only stopped doing them about 3 weeks ago because of the useless offers. So, I am at a point in the game, in which I dont really need to farm explore anymore, dont need to get all the dragons/weapons through dragonite, don’t need to spend any money or gems, except for minor purchaes, like tier 3 on world events. I did spend 25k gems last year on just buying deeds, which is why I was the first player to post hitting level 16 for all kingdoms, and now I have so much stuff I can hoard and see what direction this game will be heading towards. As far as vault drops go, since they added gnomapalooza, vk and evk follow the same patterns as for opening regular chests and attempting to get a mythic. So, you will see pattens of getting good drops and then it is worth using all your keys. If you see patterns of getting useless stuff, don’t spend any more keys, do a hard reset, and see if you see good drops again. One example is whenever I save about 4k to 5k gold keys. When I open 200 chests, I will see random numbers on how many gems I get. Like a few days ago, I was getting 7 to 12 gems on just gold keys and actually got over 100 gems. On new mythic weekend, I open with just glory keys and then spend about 70k to 100k glory. My goal is to accumulate as much gems as possible and don’t care if I hit the new mythic. But I always seem to get 2 to 5 of that mythic, but more importantly is hitting about 800 gems. Because glory and gold keys give gems like crazy and they are so easy accumulate, other events, such as treasure maps become obsolete until they decide to upgrade the reward system. Just pay attention to the patterns and if you see you are getting good drops after opening up 1k to 1400 gold keys, you will get some bad drops, like 0 gems, but in the long run, you will be getting more good drops than bad drops.
Thank you for sharing you write up but it would be more readable with paragraph format.
Interesting. Tell us more! 
Like you, I’ve noticed patterns. I always assumed they were just my mind creating patterns from randomness. But ever since the new Dungeon was demonstrated to be non-random (at least at first), I’ve wondered if the patterns I’ve seen might actually be real.
I’m not nearly as close to the end game as you, but already I see no reason to buy gems. In fact, it became very clear, very early for me that it made no sense… Because buying gems (or anything in the game, actually) only does 3 things:
- gets you much sooner to the point where you can no longer progress, and playing becomes a chore and a bore
- makes you angry and bitter because you spent money on a game that is now a bore and a chore
- makes it hard to move on to another game because of sunk cost
The way I see it is that some goals in this game will take several YEARS to reach, so who cares if you don’t get the newest mythic or don’t get all six dragonite dragons? By the time I have enough books to upgrade my kingdoms, I’ll be drowning in Dragonite, just like I’m drowning in ingots, traitstones, and orbs now.
You’ll get your Hoard Mimic. I got one after fewer than 10 Hoard Mimic fights, fewer than 50 Mimic fights. But I’ve played the new Dungeon every day and have had ONE perfect run. 
Patterns. They might be real.
Years ago, they came up with the concept of ingots to upgrade weapons. And before that, you needed to get traitstones to upgrade each troop. That took a lot of grinding to max them out. They had deals to buy ingots and traitstones back then. Eventually, you get tens of thousands of everything you can think of with no use for them. At least current players get the opportunity to farm all 3 at the same time, saving them a lot of time.
One suggestion I will make is to join a party of friends when you are grinding and just talk and have fun. Without realizing it, time flies by quickly and you do a lot of farming in the process. You will be surprised how many gold keys you will get as well. And then when it is time to cash them in, you will get a good chunk of gems. But as far as patterns go, you will also see patterns when it comes to drop rates. Don’t just open up 1 chest or chaos orb at a time. Do 3-6 and see the difference. When I farm explore at difficulty 12, I will do 5 battles per kingdom for 4 different kingdoms. And then I will do back to back mythic battles for those 5 kingdoms and open the boss chests. When I used to do 1 at a time, I rarely get a good drop. But once I open 4, I started hitting anu and nysha tokens. Sometimes I would get 3 or 4 per 4 chests. This was before mimics and hoard mimics. Now that I am thinking about it, I should do the same thing with mimics. If I get a mimic battle, not to do it but save it for another time. Once I get 4 mimic battles ready to go, maybe I will do all 4 back to back and see what happens. I will post my findings some time very late in the future, since I dont play as much now.
Where are the Nyshas you promised me? Boss chests in all kingdoms opened at once.
If you simply go the usual route - one kingdom explore at a time:
The point being - people pop up with this theory on a regular basis but not a single one of them has ever shown any evidence whatsoever, all hot air, all - I talk the talk not walk the walk.
So I’ve personally performed comparing of two methods five or six times already with constantly unsurprising results - there is no visible difference or pattern, it’s all just random drops.
I tried it yesterday. Opened 20 chests, one after another. No difference I could see.
But one vault weekend, I did log all the non-Palooza gnomes I saw, and did find a distinct pattern. Whether that would have remained after, say, 1500 battles, rather than 300, is anyone’s guess. I’m not sure I have the stamina to get decent stats. 
thank you for all the replies, but the information you provided was already presented to me years ago by multiple guild mates. They were able to show the same thing as @dust angel did. They came to the same conclusions and the theory was debunked.
BUT
I started to post over the next few years that I was getting nysha tokens, blue ascension orbs, and imperial deeds. And this was occurring in a weekly basis. I was getting on average of 7 imperial deeds per months. I was hitting at least 1 blue orb every week. And on multiple occasions, 5 to 9 nysha tokens (or even a lot of anu tokens) in one day. This was back then before gnomapalooza, where players weren’t seeing many drops, maybe 1 or 2 a month. Some players reported they haven’t seen an imperial deed offer in months. So, I earned a reputation of getting lucky. If someone got a similar luck, they would joke that I rubbed it off on them. This kept up until @Fleg told me he was tired of seeing me getting good luck and he wasn’t getting anything and it was irritating players. So, some of the guild mates ask me how I was getting lucky and guess what my reply was.
Patterns
But how, when it was proven that patterns don’t exist.
It does. My reply. 25% chance for bandits spawning. 25% chance for resurrection by dragon soul or the demon. But why were we getting a lot of bandits or same troop spawning. One player reported dragon soul resurrected 12 times. My record was 9. The demon resurrected 16 times in one battle for me. And once, I fought against a very low level player in pvp, who was using a goblin defence with irongut with 24 attacks. I was messing around and then irongut devoured one of my troops. And then a bandit spawn. At the end of the battle, (which I lost), irongut devoured 21 bandits from me.
I applied that pattern to drop rates. And so the players who were aware of it decided to come up with tricks or patterns to take advantage of and started to see similar luck as me.
For example, I opened 200 gold chests, scrolled to the bottom to see how many gems I would get. Once I do 3 to 5 sets and see I am getting 0 to 2 gems, I usually stop. But in the past experiment, you will see you randomly do get 5 and 7 gems per 200 keys and then you will see 0 to 2 again, all random. But if I start with 5 and 7 (actually hit 12 and 14 a few months back), eventually i will hit some 0 to 2 gems, but then I will be getting more hits for 5 to 7 than usual. That is when I go crazy and spend thousands of gold keys acquiring over 100 gems.
This week, I got 2 Imperial deed offers, 3 blue orbs from WE, and 5 anu tokens from doing 8 boss chests.
Everything is in moderation. So, the goal is when you open a set number and see high results, it would be best to attempt to spend more resources, like vk, gold keys, etc, than normal. When you open up 3 chaos orbs, you get a 10% chance of getting a blue orb, but you can get 3 like I did today. Just like you get bandits spawning over and over again, they do stop spawning after you give the AI a few turns, but in GW, you don’t get that luxury.
For offers, it seems that when you spend gems on a specific item, like in my case, I was buying just color deeds, then you start seeing more of those particular offers. At one point, I was getting nothing but deeds, writs, and Imperials. Last year, from August to the first week of October, I spend over 10k gems on offers.
Ever since my kingdoms hit kingdom power 27, and I started to see the event key offer for 25 gems, I stopped buying deeds. Now, I see a lot less deed offers and more of the other stuff. I just happen to get 2 Imperial deed offers this week and I was half asleep, not thinking, and bought them. (the same thing happened to me last month with dungeons and I accidentally went up a level twice instead of descending. Then all of a sudden, I was getting a lot of descending choices over the next few weeks instead of treasure)
I hope this info helps and hopefully others get my good luck.
And thank everyone for the reply. Happy gemming