… and more precisely, percentages. In a game that is flooded by what is supposed to be randomness (percentages, gem drops, unit drops), I’ve thought that it would be a good idea to track something that can be tracked and see the results. In that case, I tracked the devour percentage against me. I tracked the 40% devour chance of Kerberos and Kraken over about 3 weeks, on PC, PvP only (no GW) and battles against teams that are 8k+ in strength.
I did not do this just for fun. Multiple times, I’ve spoken with people saying that they tracked the numbers and each time, I got the same answer. The numbers are higher than expected, way higher. That was also my feeling, but I wanted to see if it was not recall bias or just a false idea created by the frustration.
This is an interesting point to track and discuss because the results are not subject to recall bias, which seems to be the main excuse/reason each time something goes wrong. These numbers are exactly what is happening in the game, considering this is done with all the serious needed.
I decided to stop after 110 devours, here are the results.
Number of tries | Number of devours | Number of devours for the last 10 tries | Overall percentage
30 | 21 | - | 70,00%
40 | 27 | 6 | 67,50%
50 | 31 | 4 | 62,00%
60 | 35 | 4 | 58,33%
70 | 39 | 4 | 55,71%
80 | 43 | 4 | 53,75%
90 | 52 | 9 | 57,78%
100 | 56 | 4 | 56,00%
110 | 63 | 7 | 57,27%
Even we consider an average of 55% for these results, that’s still 37.5% more devour than expected. This is a lot, but these are only my numbers. If I consider that the numbers provided to me by others are reliable, I can say that some have experienced up to 50% more devours than expected.
Another thing I found with these numbers is that “series” exists. Often when you speak about bad luck on something, someone comes and say it’s just a bad moment, that’ll change. That’s true, but these numbers show that it never changed in my favor. It went from terrible luck to normal, I never got really lucky. For the first 40 tries I had a terrible luck, the 40 next were normal, and again terrible luck on the last 30.
I haven’t talked with the support about this for one precise reason. Some I know already did it and they received the same answer. It’s random. That’s still a possibility, maybe we are just unlucky and others have an overall devour chance of 25%. This is also why I don’t draw conclusions from these numbers. But what if a lot of numbers were going in that direction?
So… How’s your randomness doing with devour? Are you experiencing the same issues as me/us? Or are we simply unlucky?