Lemme try and break it down. First off, there’s one thing worth saying:
It’s your money, and you can spend it how you want. If you decided you really want to spend it, then go for it. But you asked for advice, and you’re getting “it’s not worth it” from many players. It doesn’t make any sense to say, “I’m not sure if this is a good deal, can someone explain to me?” then argue with the people who you just admitted know better. It looks nicer to say, “Thanks, but I think I’m going to do it anyway.” Or not reply.
Here is why i think it is not a good idea.
This is a long game. It takes more than a year to max things like kingdom power unless you spend thousands of dollars. No one really rushes GoW because it makes no sense, economically.
Leveling your kingdom stars is a thing you do as you approach the later game because it requires souls, even after the update. So if you can’t reliably farm souls, it’s not a reasonable goal. You should spend all of your resources on acquiring ways to farm souls. That can mean “a fast explore team”, “troops like valkyrie”, or “a more reliable PvP team”.
500 gems is worth a lot of gem keys, I can’t look it up at the moment but I know for sure it will open 50. There is a tiny chance that a soul farming troop will be in there, but also a tiny chance there will be a legendary like The Dragon Soul that will be just as effective. There is an even tinier chance you will get a troop like Infernus that dramatically increases your PvP ability. So if you spend 500 gems on gem keys, there is “a small chance” you will be better at farming souls and “a large chance” you’ll just get more troops.
Let’s say, instead, you spend 500 gems on 18,000 souls. You will get the souls, which will result in what, maybe 2 new kingdom stars? Then you’re done.
I know what you are thinking. You’re looking at Khetar and imagining getting its x2 tribute means you get 40 more souls per tribute. You’re assuming 12 tributes daily and thinking “480 souls per day!”. That’s not how tribute works. Each kingdom has a pretty small chance of giving tribute. Khetar is going to be at 20% at its best. So, on average, this will mean “80 souls/day”. If you’re lucky. It will take 225 days to get as many souls as you spent the gems on.
If you’re thinking the extra gem tributes will pay off if you can double tribute chance, again: each kingdom will tribute 20%, realistically. That’s 2.4 tributes daily. You will spend 500 gems to increase your tribute gems by a teeny bit more than 2 daily. It will be 250 days before this investment pays for itself.
Now, let’s compare a “fast” soul exploring team. Let’s say you can win 1.5 matches per minute, rather than the 2-3 a high-level team can do. You don’t have Necromancy or something that generates souls, so you’ll usually get 4 souls per match. 18,000 souls divided by 4 per match means 4,500 matches. 100 matches per day will be 66 minutes of play. So if you explore for 1 hour/day, it will take 45 days to get the 18,000 souls with zero soul farming effort.
Now let’s say you farm with any of the low-rarity soul generators: Valkyrie, Wight, Banshee, Warg, Avina, etc. I’m pretty sure Avina is a quest reward so you can’t NOT have her. With any of these troops, getting an average of 30 souls per match from 1-3 activations is likely. But it will take longer, let’s say 2 minutes per match. With these numbers:
You’ll get 30 souls/match so 18,000 souls takes 600 matches. At 2 minutes per match, 1 hour per day, you get 30 matches/day. So now it takes 20 days to get 18,000 souls. Add a Necromancy troop or two and it’s much shorter, on the order of “a week”.
So to me, even in your shoes, I feel like these are the options on the table:
- Farm 18,000 souls with a fast team over 45 days, get a lot of other rewards along the way. Use 500 gems on troops and maybe luck out and make this faster.
- Farm 18,000 souls with a bad soul farming team over 10-20 days, get a lot of other rewards along the way. Use 500 gems on troops and maybe luck out and make this faster.
- Use 500 gems to buy 18,000 souls and make the investment back in 220 days.
You’re not going to go 220 more days without a soul farming troop like Valkyrie. I also don’t buy that you don’t have any other soul farmer. Valkyrie is just the most useful one. In my opinion, gems->souls is a very bad investment even in your circumstances. There’s no way I can imagine 18,000 souls will make back 500 gems in the way that “opening gem chests” might. You may as well spend your money on treasure maps, at least THAT maps to gems in a realistic way.
It takes a long time to get to the high end of play you’re accusing us of estimating. If you spend money, it takes less time to get there, but there’s no way to move quickly in Gems of War for cheap. The progress you imagine will require an investment of $500 or more. The progress you’ll get will feel like nothing by the time you wake up tomorrow.