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Increased Probability of pulling old cards

Hi,

This is not a complaint… I will probably never even use the Atlanta troop.

I was probably playing Gems of War before it was even made available to the public in the XBox Store in 2015. So I think it’s highly unusual that I only have 2 Atlanta cards… when most of my other cards (including most common cards) are becoming Mythic. Even more unusual since Atlanta is a version 1.0.0.0 card. I have many cards that were just released a few months ago that are already fully Mythic.

From a mathematics perspective… as the set (number of cards) becomes larger there will be unusual edge cases that are within standard deviation… such as cards not appearing even after many thousands of iterations.

I think the dev team should start considering a weighted distribution on older common/epic/rare cards based on either release date or version number.

Best Wishes,
-Dave

3 Likes

Please, no.

It is true that I only have one copy of an “older” troop that I need to ascend and weighting toward that would probably help it a bit (Hydra, only have 1 copy), but there are also “newer” ones that I havent seen another copy of since I got them during their event (Sylvanimora, Dracos), and I also have “newer” troops already at mythic (Kraken is Mythic +3) and “older” troops far beyond (Psion is Mythic +9, Abhorath is Mythic + 3, etc). I have a guildmate still missing Khorvash because they missed him on the event week, despite us maxing the red, green, and blue tasks every week, and as a “newer” troop, the drop chance would be weighted away from him. In the end, if you had an equal probability to pull troops from the same time period weighted toward old troops, you are only making newer troops harder to obtain. When you do get your 16th atlanta, she would have an even higher chance to drop as several more epics releases or game versions would have still gone by since then. You wouldn’t be eliminating edge cases, you’d just be shifting them. If this same weighting extended toward event keys, I’d be ready to rip my hair out.

I’d much rather they weight the distribution based on the inverse of how many total copies you have including those sacrificed for ascensions (more cards = less chance for it to drop). I know they will probably never turn off drops for certain troops completely, but something is going to have to be done eventually as they continue to release more troops into an ever-expanding drop pool, making individual troops harder to get, while at the same time stagnating resource gains.

4 Likes

I don’t favor a weighting toward either end, at all! Not one bit.

But a simple Guild Guardian approach, when you have x4 Mythic it gets removed from the drop pool. Something would obviously be need to be done with super duper end game players. Personally don’t need x11 copies of Mythic Carnex.

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Hmmm no thanks. For the reasons above.

Hmmmm,

Just know that it you plot the troop distribution over time… new players starting the game by mid 2017 will be at a serious disadvantage. (assuming 300+ troops at a growth rate of 2 per week)

Keep in mind that gamers average only about 6 hours per week playing games. If you continue the plot with a growth rate of 2 cards per week at 52 weeks per year… by mid 2018 you will not be able to rely on the normalized distribution of troops from keys for new casual players.

I can think of several methods for combating this… and perhaps make some money in the 25 billion dollar gaming industry.

Some ideas:

  • Weight the distribution so that older cards are have a higher probability of dropping. Perhaps with a ceiling. (In other words guaranteed to get at least 1-5 cards for each troop)
  • Selling ‘Kingdom Packs’ for $5 which contain all common, rare and up to ultra-rare for each kingdom.
  • New mini game or Explore Mode that rewards common, rare and ultra-rare for each kingdom.

These are just some ideas…

It’s not a problem for you players that play 20 hours per week and have been playing for the last year… you already have all the troops.

I’d like to hear some of your ideas. :slight_smile:

Best Wishes,
-Dave

I’m curious as to whether people who don’t devote a ton of time see this as a gotta-catch-'em-all style game where collecting all troops is seen as the goal, or if being successful with the cards you’ve got is the goal. I know if I were playing a physical collectible game like M:tG, it’d definitely be the latter. Apples to oranges, perhaps? The fact that you can get cards for “free” (time invested, so not actually “free”) does change the equation somewhat.

2 Likes

Two key differences between GoW and MtG are:

  • In MtG, there is a lot more investment in a single team/deck and depending on how you play, no scouting and selecting an appropriate team/deck.
  • In MtG, there are no bonuses for collecting/traiting all troops in a Kingdom. GoW actively rewards catching 'em all (or at least a large majority).

Nevertheless, I think your point is good. Despite rewarding catching-em-all, GoW is supposed to be a gachapon game where you make use of what RNG gives you.

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For me I know I need to collect all troops since it’s part of the kingdom tribute award system. So having every card from every kingdom and traited and level - if I want the bonus star tributes and bonuses I need to. I rather do that then spend a bunch of gold on leveling a kingdom to 10 to get +1 bonus. To me that is wasted gold right now. I am taking the slow route to upping kingdoms to level 10, because I rather get mass income coming in and be able to drop that down from level 5 to 10 in one shot.

However, I too had something similar with Gorgon. He was one of my first cards I drew and he JUST ascended his first ascension (been playing since June). It was kind a funny actually I had a bet that my Mad prophet which I kept selling off for souls the first three months would make Mythic before Gorgon managed to ascend one level. It was awfully close… Mad Prophet is like 20 away from Mythic… when Gorgon last week ascended…

Agreed. And if all of a rarity are removed, get a traitstone of that level.

There are currently 55 Ultra-rare troops. 4 are not in chests currently. Of the other 51 I have 48 at mythic. Which means when I get a Ultra-rare card from a glory key, there is only a 6% chance I can use it. But if the 48 were removed, I could finish the last 3 (Apothecary, Corrupt Sorceress, and Satyr Musician) and thetn if I open a glory key and should get an Ultra-rare, I’d get a Relic stone instead.

2 Likes

These are great ideas to consider.

I also keep pulling cards for troops that have already reached Mythic. Not sure if you realize this but you are describing a weighted distribution. The phrase “remove from the drop pool” (in mathematics) is simply adjusting the weight so that the probability becomes zero. Or as @Mithran describes… greatly reduced based on the current card count.

Best Wishes,
-Dave

The suggestion has come up before; I think it is safe to say that the devs have considered and rejected the proposal to bias away from “completed” troops. They have the technology to do it (as evidenced by the Guild Guardian drop parameters) but they have elected not to apply it to other chests. (As much as I’d love to at least have the unnecessary drops past Mythic 4x replaced with Traitstones…)

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They could replace them with major traitstones! That would make everyone happy! :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

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2 Likes

That doesn’t look like happiness. Would you have preferred something else? Souls, perhaps?

We already got that. You can get any missing troop from the arena. Although they should allow you to buy them at level 1 for a reasonable price. If you’re missing a troop that you use in the arena and can only buy it at a gem price that is equivalent buying the souls it would need to level to 15, that wont help here. And it wouldnt help with Atlanta either, cause they only once had Epics in the arena for like two weeks.

So bring back epics to the arena (they’re doing something about the arena rewards in the next patch… maybe more) and let players buy them at level 1, not level 15, so the gems you need to pay can be reduced.

i think this idea whould hurt more then it can help

for now your hope lies in event chests

i also asked Sirrian the other day in game chat that we might need ‘gold event chests’ of some sort sooner or later and he said its a good idea, been no promises or anything but a positive reply at least

i guess its time to make a feature request…
there you go, feel free to post your idea or modification of it:

That was my goal for the longest time.

I’m like 70% sure two or so weeks ago he said something about gold chest-level event chests so that you could also get the commons and rares from an event kingdom.

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