However, even if a coin is not fair, things might work fine despite that. And yes, one can still get fair results from a biased coin with some simple tricks. Fair coin - Wikipedia
However, according to Sirrian, since 40 empty throws in a row can happen, it will happen. Probability of this is about 6.4E-7 which is not exactly zero. On the bad side, this renders any practical claim about randomness and independence of an event completely obsolete.
I feel like the thing most indicative there is a problem is that, when I stated I wanted to know if and how the RNG was being manipulated, long-time players arrived with dozens of links to dev comments at various stages of game development.
I’m going to start answering every “this RNG is not fair” thread with “file a bug report every time this happens” instead of “No, that’s not how probability works”. It feels apparent to me no player, and potentially none of the devs, have a good grasp of how the RNG works in the game.
It doesn’t seem appropriate to try and explain probability to people who might be on a rare curve when it’s unclear if the RNG output is used “untainted”. We’ve already seen oddball consequences like, “We tried to tweak the font size but it broke how Elspeth targets” so I don’t think it’s wrong to expect, “we added a new troop to the game now TDS resurrects 90% on Tuesdays.”
