Here’s the thing about that, going back to the coin example someone else said:
If you flip a coin 20 times and get 20 heads, that’s pretty astounding, but possible. I’ve done simulations before, and the end result was I was surprised how likely 20-in-a-row was over trials of even 1,000. IIRC it was almost always likely to happen if I did about 3,000 trials. Neat. Anyway, I’m digressing.
Now imagine you pick up the coin again the next day and flip it 20 times, and get 20 heads again. This is not impossible, but still weird even though we’re only talking 40 trials.
So you pick up another coin and flip it 20 times. You get 14 heads and 6 tails. That’s lopsided, but not as astounding as 20 heads. You try again. 9 heads with 11 tails. OK, we’re looking at random results!
So you pick up the first coin again. This time you get 19 heads and 1 tails. You get up to 39 heads and 1 tails.
So you call a friend and have them come over to do 40 flips with both coins. The first coin flips 38 heads 2 tails. The second flips 29 heads 11 tails. You ask them to try again and they get 40-0 and 18-22.
Something is wrong with that coin. Maybe if you flip it 10,000 times you’ll see it right itself. But if you can go 80 trials and get 79 heads, you get suspicious. It’s especially suspicious if when you flip other coins you get “expected” results, but when you resume with the suspect coin they’re tilted again.
What’s going on here is we keep trying over and over and over again. The more that one coin produces results that favor heads, the more confident we can become that it is “fixed” and we aren’t having “weird luck”.
So ideally, the way to do this experiment is:
- Have multiple people use Holy Avenger and see if they get very consistent results.
- Have the same people try another weapon with a 20% chance of something and see what results they get for the same number of trials.
If every person who tries Holy Avenger is seeing 7-9%, and the same people are seeing more like 18%-22% off of the other weapon’s effect, that can make us very suspicious something is wrong.
I think the main reason we don’t already have that is Holy Avenger isn’t exactly a popular meta weapon, and as has been pointed out 300 matches aren’t exactly a large sample set.
It’s still possible Venar just had “really bad luck”. To know that, someone has to try.
I’m not on board with “it’s definitely a bug” but I am on board with “if this is just luck, it’s exceptionally strange luck”. So I’m going to try an experiment. It doesn’t hurt you for other people to try and validate.