Gem Dragon Eggs - Fair Roll or Rigged?

Community analysis has shown that Dungeon isn’t a fair game mode, depending on how you pick doors it is much more likely or next to impossible to get a perfect run. The official communication doesn’t mention this in any way, it gives the impression that every approach has the same chance.

Please clarify whether dragons obtained from Gem Dragon Eggs are subject to similar secret manipulation behind the scenes. Is it a fair, independent roll, with each dragon having a 1:6 chance to get pulled? Or are there further factors that influence which dragon one may or may not get, e.g. the dragons already owned and the dungeon color on the day the Gem Dragon Egg is crafted. Observations so far have show some unusual duplicate streaks, which suggests there might also be a hidden bias at work here.

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It should statistically take 15 Eggs to get all 6. Once people eventually get all 6 and track the number of Eggs, if the average is anywhere close to 15, then we can call it fair RNG. Emotions can run high in people, but we don’t have enough data to determine whether or not the Eggs are fair. For everyone’s sake, please let the numbers do the talking. It is our job to listen.

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No. It SHOULD take 6 eggs to get all 6 dragons. Take the RNG out of dragon eggs, that will answer this question permanently.

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I agree with you, but the question is about the fairness of the RNG

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Well, if that’s the way it ought to be… how much more expensive should each Egg be? Or how much less Dragonite should be available through avenues such as the daily Dungeon or from the Campaign rewards?

It doesn’t do the developers a whole lot of good if players can exhaust the new content in a short amount of time because then a lot of them will go and play something else. The developers want you playing this game, and they want you returning to it every day. Whether or not you agree with this paradigm, whether or not you view said paradigm as “ethical” or “fair”, a lot of it is designed to have players checking in every day and playing some if those players want to “keep up with the Joneses” or because FOMO or whatever other rationale they invent for themselves.

A year from now? Two years from now? Assuming GoW is still an ongoing concern, I’ll bet an awful lot of active players will have all seven dragons plus both weapons and may not even touch Dungeons unless new stuff is introduced that requires Dragonite as a resource. And some of those players might even be sitting on sizable hoards of Dragonite to boot.

Much like a lot of veteran players are sitting on tens of thousands of keys, treasure maps, ingots, colored jewels, chaos shards, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

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Rather make pain and frustration content like Dragonite/Dragons, I’d rather they expand on other content like Medals. Its been out for awhile now and nothing has been done.

They could do more than just Seasons/Explore Medals, but instead… its heading to the way of Pets where they could have done so much and have done absolutely nothing.

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A person can come up with any random number in a given range (although most likely he will rely on some kind of logic, so this will also not be completely random). But a computer can’t. In order for the computer to give you a random number, some specific value is taken (the current time, date, the amount of some resource or the temperature at the south pole or something else, it depends only on the imagination of the developers), and then various mathematical operations. So yes - random always depends on something

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That’s why they are called pseudo random number generator. For all practical purposes the generated numbers are random. It’s not the question here though, the question is whether there is some intentional fudging going on.

There’s a clear expectation that you can pull each dragon at a 1:6 chance, no matter when you press the craft button. That’s the message that has so far officially been conveyed, without ever directly saying so. The game shouldn’t secretly pick a differently distributed loot table based on other factors, e.g. by making it impossible to ever get one specific dragon when crafting on Monday, no matter how often you try. I believe we are currently at the point where it’s reasonable to doubt the official message:

  • Dungeon is rigged in this way, some specific loot can never show up behind some specific doors.
  • Infinity Plus Two had several serious issues with their loot boxes in the past, all well hidden.

To sum it up, I’d like Infinity Plus Two to come clear here. Either by explicitly stating (instead of just implying) that the Gem Dragon Egg is a fair loot box, with an independent 1:6 chance for each outcome (and properly compensating losses in case this is ever found to not be true). Or by disclosing the real loot tables that the game might intentionally switch to, based on specific situations. This is a very reasonable request, some countries may even require Infinity Plus Two to disclose this information without even being asked for it. If there isn’t any response there’s likely yet again something fishy going on, similar to past incidents.

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So I get the lack of evidence isn’t evidence itself, but… is there any particular dragon showing up too often or any dragon that isn’t showing up enough? Or is it just suspected that coding desires to give repeat dragons?

I get that some users are getting very unfortunate, but… there’s plenty that aren’t (yet)?

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There isn’t even remotely close to enough data. We’ve had some very unusual draw patterns in our guild, I’d normally disregard that as coincidence. But there’s the Dungeon door handling, it presents itself as a fair random chance while doing some hidden manipulation in the background. And it manipulates in a way that will put those players who pick the doors in reading order (which is the most prominently picked pattern) at a huge disadvantage. This is a very questionable design choice that any service game based company would try to avoid, it hurts the trust relationship once discovered. And yet it was apparently done intentionally here.

Dungeon and Gem Dragon Eggs are tightly linked. It would take a whole lot of data collection by the community for a proper data analysis, I wouldn’t be too much surprised if the crafting part would also show some irregularities. If it really is a fair chance then IP2 should have no issue confirming it, the patch notes carefully avoid claiming anything specific in that regard.

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So much for fair randomness

At least they are ‘sad’ that they made things as mathematically difficult as possible for the players…
:roll_eyes: :man_facepalming: :vulcan_salute:

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Purple day, got a (dupe) purple dragon.

Probably coincidence but after everything it still feels odd.

And with the new changes that go against the players - again, of course they’re quick to fix what may have helped us - it was just the thing that I actually expected to happen. :sweat_smile:

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