So, we got this event last year and you seem to be on the same path as us.
Initially there was a bug where the chances did not reset each day. If you are stuck at 2 total after the second day, you may be suffering from this bug right now, meaning it didn’t get fixed for Switch. Might be worth a ping here so you can at least get this part resolved, and be able to at least get enough to complete event like we did. (@Kafka @Jeto @OminousGMan). This was originally resolved before the second day of the event was over I believe, you’re about to be out two full days plus a third fast approaching.
There was also a different widespread reported issue where despite the follow up dev claims of being able to encounter The Flesh Horror ‘unlimited’ times per day, evidence seemed to suggest that you could in fact only ever encounter two per day (if you defeated it and got the drop, otherwise you’d keep getting attempts until you defeated 2 and got 2x The Devil), as either a hard cap or the chances getting reduced to literally zero.
A data gathering attempt was made but so many people stopped after getting their second (since it was pointless to get a third copy each day if you played each day and many already had the weapon and tarot at mythic by day 4 of the event (there was a separate bug with the chances for the first day did not getting reset going into the second day and by day 5/6 we were into a new faction event so people stopped trying having already gotten mythic +4 and the weapon). Over the course of our efforts, there was a single anecdotal report of someone getting a third Flesh Horror/The Devil tarot in the same day, but zero in our data sets despite some going hundreds of battles after getting their second.
In the end, results were inconclusive, but the lack of anyone in the data sets ever getting a third drop showed with a decent likelihood that if we gave the benefit of the doubt to the devs claims that there were, in fact, ‘unlimited’ chances to encounter The Flesh Horror per day that there was at the very least a reduction in drop rate by a factor of 5 to 10 while the chances between the 1st and second encounter were sampled as comparable or maybe even higher between the first and second - this is being extremely charitable, seeing as there was a single positive report of a third drop across multiple community discords, it was anecdotal from a guild member of the person that reported it, and there was no context to if the attempts passed over the daily refresh screen or if it was on the day that the daily reset bug was fixed.
The community at large walked away with the assumption that there never was a third drop while claims from the devs were adamant that there was. The matter was left at that, with no further investigation as to why players were saying that there wasn’t and devs were saying that there was, despite there being at least enough evidence to show that a theoretical third encounter would have represented a huge cliff in appearance and it should have been easy to at least check if it was intended that there was a huge cliff in appearance rate between specifically #2 and #3. So, even with good participation on the time the event ran while it would have been nearly impossible to “prove” that it was literally impossible to get even a third encounter, there was ample evidence to support that the claim of “unlimited chances times per day but reduced chance each time” was at best misleading and at worst just incorrect, and ample opportunities to set the record straight.
My personal working theory was that whatever code was responsible for attenuating the drop chance per encounter used subtraction and therefore reduced the chance of the third encounter to at, below, or close enough to zero as to never happen (ie., 50% > 25% > 0%). The reduction between the first and second chance seemed to be extremely negligible, with many getting back to back encounters. It could have also been a simple off-by-one error and that the person who was asked by the dev that made the post that the rates were correct either did a cursory check to see that they were or assumed that they were because it passed review.
Last year’s data gather thread, for reference:
Heres one response in a different thread:
And my response:
You’ll have to do some searching for other similar threads if you want the greater context. I felt like I was extremely charitable here in giving benefit of the doubt and multiple outs to explain why the devs could be stating one thing but the playerbase could be experiencing something totally different, but alas, we never got follow up beyond this, and it was simply brushed aside as “bad luck”. Maybe you’ll have better luck here.
Of note that the next battlecrasher event that seemed to derive from this “reduced chance, reset daily” model, the new kingdom event, seemed to launch without the same issue, but these actually had a stated cap.