Exactly what are the odds?


#1

Who’s great with math! I’ve got a serious question. For you :slight_smile:

What are the chances of getting the SAME legendary 6 times? Just curious. I opened 100+ keys. Got a Gloom Leaf! Got a Gloom Leaf 5 more times… Hmm…

Is it just me or did the I just get screwed? One is awesome. Two is probably still feasible. 6? I clearly just lost out on 5 other very awesome legendaries due to this. What a a bummer.


#2

not as improbable as my 20 something gloom leafs :grin:


#3

Without including imps, there are 20 Legendaries. With a 1% chance to get a legendary and a 1/20 chance to get Gloom leaf, I would say about an .008% chance to get 6 in a row. Or, one in 800k.


#4

Actually, since he’s only considering the Legendaries he got (i.e. excluding all the Commons and Rares he no doubt also got) they’re not in a row.

So if you got 6 Legendaries out of 100 keys, the odds that all 6 are the same Legendary is 20 x 0.05^6 = 0.00003% or 1 in 3.2 million.

Mind you, 6 Legendaries out of 100 keys sounds pretty lucky, so maybe consider the extra 5 Gloom Leafs as bonus disenchant souls?


#5

It’s actually a pretty near fact that your chances of getting a legendary you already own is higher than that of a new one.

But considering we don’t know the exact number for legends you own, the numbers can’t be easily calculated.


#6

Funny you mention this, since I have the opposite problem. I usually only get 1 to 2 legendaries for every 100 keys.


#7

My first 2 legendaries were the same card, then I got a different one…

Have well over 100 keys


#8

@actreal and your calculations are for getting any 1 legendary, not specifically Gloom Leaf correct?


#9

Yes, because OP’s complaint would be the same if he’d got 6 Molochs instead. For specifically Gloom Leaf, the probablity is 20 times less likely, or 1 in 64 million.