Event Keys, and mythic drop rates

Platform, device version and operating system: Xbox one

Screenshot or image: N/A

What you were expecting to happen, and what actually happened: This may come across as basic whining that I didn’t get a mythic, but it’s not. I spent at least 300-350 event keys this week trying to get the wild queen, I spent roughly 300+ trying to get megavore a few weeks ago. I have got 2 mythics from event keys in the past, elemaugrim and worldbreaker. Both of them cost me below 200. The 2 that I got from event keys happened before you reworked the contents and drop rates of event keys not long ago, where you inserted the common (not guardian) troops into the event key drop table, yet said in the same update that the chances of getting a mythic are now slightly better. I don’t think this is true. Normally I wouldn’t have bothered writing this but i’ve had several guildmates and have seen several different people complaining in global chat about burning 300 too 400+ event keys and getting no mythic out of them. This is not written in order to say “I spent x amount of keys i’m entitlted to y”, i’m simply stating that since the patch where event key contents and drop rates were changed it seems to be drastically harder to get a mythic, when your notes said it would be better. I’m hoping to get this looked into and possibly fixed if broken.

How often does this happen? When did it begin happening? Happens to pretty much everybody, began during the patch that altered event key contents and drop rates for mythics.

Steps to make it happen again Spend event keys.

Also for any devs that want to look into my purchase/key history on xbox my invite code is: king phillip iv_tnc3 and my GT is king phillip iv.

Well, before the rework i wasted 800+ event keys trying to get scorpius and no luck.

This week using 500 got the Wild Queen (and am not the only one in guild that got her), it is actually the first mythic i ever got with event keys.

Chances are just really low, both before and even now, if you got 2 mythics with less than 200 mean only you was really lucky back then.

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As per drop rate data sent to the client, the new drop rate for mythics from event keys is about 1 in 961. Prior to them upping the drop rate, it was about 1 in 1042. A combination of empirical evidence and drop rate ratios has always trended toward the “about 1 in 1000” drop rate for mythics from gem keys and event keys, so your reported draws of mythics from less than 200 were simply lucky draws.

As for anecdotal evidence, I got TINA last week in 48 event keys, opening them one at a time, but its also the only mythic I’ve ever drawn on that account with event keys. I also have an account that got four Jotnar spending only about 350 event keys, and has never gotten a mythic from an event key draw before or since, despite needing 600 to draw a single copy on a different legendary week, and 600 keys or so on that one. Yet another account (2.5 years old) has never seen a Mythic from an event key, but has gotten two from Raid/Invasion Shop purchases. My main account (4y+) even has only seen one, ever, a duplicate of Tian Yi when trying to pull Qilin. Randoms gonna random.


Unfortunately, they recently stopped sending drop rate data to the client, citing it as “old and inaccurate” (even though it correctly reflected updates of when troops were and were not in chests, showed the changes in event key drop rates when they were implemented, and was used multiple times to catch mistakes in the drop tables). So whereas before we could look at this data and have at least some indication (not a guarantee, since it comes from a different source, but at least an indication, since every time there was not a drop in chests or the drop rate was 0, it would also be reflected here) of drop rates and whether or not something is in chests. And since they flat out stated the data was inaccurate the whole time, who knows? Not like anybody is going to be able to open the hundreds of thousands of event chests needed to show a trend either side of this tiny drop rate variance.

So while I want to just say “you didn’t open near enough to have an expectation of a mythic and in the past when you did you just got lucky”, instead I have to say “In the past you got lucky, but I can’t provide any evidence for whether or not mythic drop rates were actually buffed as stated or that they haven’t reverted or gotten worse. Guess you’ll just have to take them at their word and hope they also didn’t make any mistakes.”.


Yeah this is ridiculious lo…I spent 300 event keys :rofl::rofl::rofl:

1 in 1000 as stated above is the right thing^^

We haven’t changed our drop rates again, and you are still a little more likely to get mythic troops from event keys after the changes we made.

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How likely?

I suggest you tune into the 4.4 preview stream if possible, or read Lyrian’s excellent summary after it finishes.

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Just pointing out that the last time this claim was made it was proven without doubt to be incorrect, at which point all official representatives promptly withdrew from the conversation. Support still used the known false information afterwards to refuse refund requests.

I believe that opening 350, or even 600 event keys, without pulling any mythic troops is well within the supposedly active chests odds. I won’t ever believe any claims about unchanged drop rates again, having been caught lying to maximize profits and refusing to explain yourself is just a too huge hit to credibility.